Risk-Conscious Operations Management: An Integrated Paradigm for Complex Engineering System

Preface
Disclaimer
Contents
About the Author
1 Introduction
	1.1 Background and Introduction
	1.2 Salient Features of Nuclear Plant Operations
		1.2.1 The System
		1.2.2 Safety Management of Operations Ecosystems—A Brief Overview
		1.2.3 Regulations
	1.3 Consciousness—A Brief Overview
	1.4 Risk-Conscious Operations management—The Framework
		1.4.1 Fundamentals RCOM
		1.4.2 Risk-Based Engineering
	1.5 CQB Model
		1.5.1 The Model
		1.5.2 Human Performance Influencing Factors (HPIS)
		1.5.3 Human Reliability Model
		1.5.4 Human Root Cause Analysis
	1.6 Risk-Conscious Culture
	1.7 Implementation
	1.8 Remarks
	References
2 Consciousness
	2.1 Introduction
	2.2 Evolution of Science and Philosophy of Consciousness
	2.3 Consciousness and Human Reliability
	2.4 The Consciousness Framework to Support RCOM
	2.5 Literature Review
		2.5.1 Ancient Era
		2.5.2 Major Evolutionary/Developmental History of Consciousness
		2.5.3 The State of the Art in Risk-Consciousness—Applications
		2.5.4 Source of Consciousness and Role of Brain
		2.5.5 Consciousness and Artificial Intelligence
	2.6 Major Philosophy and Science of Consciousness
		2.6.1 Nondualism or Advaita
		2.6.2 Dualism
		2.6.3 Panpsychism
		2.6.4 Scientific Background
		2.6.5 Modern Scientific Approaches and State of the Art
	2.7 Summary and Conclusions
	References
3 Dependability Engineering
	3.1 Introduction
	3.2 Risk-Conscious Approach
	3.3 Role of Dependability Modeling
	3.4 Dependability Assessment
		3.4.1 Interpretation of Dependability
		3.4.2 Deterministic Approach
		3.4.3 Probabilistic Approach
	3.5 Special Areas
		3.5.1 Common Cause Failure Analysis
		3.5.2 Human Reliability
		3.5.3 Root Cause Analysis
		3.5.4 Uncertainty Analysis
		3.5.5 Potential Role of Intelligent and Advanced Systems
	References
4 Risk-Conscious Culture
	4.1 Introduction
	4.2 Residual Risk and Risk Perception
	4.3 Culture
	4.4 Safety Culture
	4.5 Risk-Conscious Culture
		4.5.1 Governing Principles
		4.5.2 Risk Model
		4.5.3 Organizational and Human Elements
		4.5.4 Technical Elements
	Annex: Table Typical Generic Operational Activities
	References
5 Risk-Based Engineering
	5.1 Introduction
	5.2 Why Risk-Based to Risk-Conscious Culture
	5.3 The RBE Framework
	5.4 Deterministic Safety Assessment
		5.4.1 Defense-In-Depth Philosophy
		5.4.2 Deterministic Safety Assessment
	5.5 Probabilistic Risk Assessment
		5.5.1 General Considerations
		5.5.2 Overview of Major Steps Involved in PRA
	5.6 Role of the Deterministic and Probabilistic Approach in IRBE
	5.7 Requirements of Monitoring and Surveillance, Diagnostics, Prognostics and Health Management
	5.8 Integrated Risk Assessment
	5.9 Compliance to Risk and Performance Goals
	References
6 Risk Simulation
	6.1 Introduction
	6.2 Integrated Risk Simulation Framework
		6.2.1 Plant Experience and Experiments
		6.2.2 Risk Monitor
		6.2.3 Plant Simulator
		6.2.4 Intelligent Operator Support Systems
	6.3 Probabilistic Modeling and Data Analytics
		6.3.1 Monte Carlo Simulation
		6.3.2 Probability Distributions
	6.4 Probabilistic Risk Assessment
		6.4.1 Boolean Logic
		6.4.2 Even Tree Modeling
		6.4.3 System Unavailability Modeling
		6.4.4 Dynamic Fault Tree
		6.4.5 Reliability Data
	6.5 Risk Monitoring
		6.5.1 Scope and Objective for Risk Management
		6.5.2 Acceptance Guidelines
		6.5.3 Implementation Procedure
	6.6 Simulator in Risk Simulation
		6.6.1 Introduction
		6.6.2 Simulator Architecture and Major Features—An Overview
		6.6.3 Core Neutronics Point Kinetics Model
	6.7 Intelligent Operator Support System
	6.8 Case Study: Reassessment of Shutdown Safety Margin
		6.8.1 Postulation of Loss of Off-Site Power Scenario
		6.8.2 Loss of Regulation Incident
		6.8.3 Loss of Coolant Accident
	6.9 Conclusions and Final Remark
	References
7 Human Factors in Operation
	7.1 Introduction
	7.2 Human Factors in Design
	7.3 Adoption of the CQB Human Model in the RCOM
	7.4 Anatomy and Physiological Processes in Cognition
		7.4.1 General
		7.4.2 The Neuron
		7.4.3 Role of Consciousness in Cognition
		7.4.4 Brain and Nervous System
		7.4.5 Human Reliability Considerations in RCOM
	7.5 Major Attributes Consciousness in RCOM
		7.5.1 Conscious Formation
		7.5.2 Awareness Coefficient
		7.5.3 Alertness Quotient: Concentration and Focus
		7.5.4 Emotional Quotient
	7.6 Conscience
		7.6.1 Background
		7.6.2 Ethics
		7.6.3 Integrity
		7.6.4 Honesty
		7.6.5 Morals—General Attitudes and Dedications
	7.7 Reference Human Model in RCOM
		7.7.1 Unmanifested States/Stages
		7.7.2 Undeveloped Events in the Fault Tree
		7.7.3 Other Undeveloped Events
		7.7.4 Evaluation of Failure Probability Associated with Emergency Operating Procedures
		7.7.5 Quantification of Stimuli for EOPs
		7.7.6 Human Error Probability for a Precursor Event
		7.7.7 Evaluation of Unavailability Stimuli for Reference Humans
	7.8 Modeling of Sense Bases
		7.8.1 General Features and Postulations
		7.8.2 Task Modeling
		7.8.3 Sense Base Characterization and Quantification
	7.9 Operational Performance Influencing Factors/Functions
		7.9.1 Organizational
		7.9.2 Task Characteristics
		7.9.3 System
		7.9.4 Environment
	7.10 Quantification
		7.10.1 General
		7.10.2 The CQB Mathematical Model
		7.10.3 Fuzzy Logic Approach for Human Reliability Analysis
	7.11 Special Aspects
		7.11.1 Human Root Cause Analysis
		7.11.2 Human Error Precursors
		7.11.3 Human Factor(s) as Precursors to CCF
		7.11.4 Techniques for Improving Human Performance
		7.11.5 Physiology of Happiness
	7.12 Remarks and Conclusion
	References
8 Operational Risk Management
	8.1 Introduction
	8.2 Integrated Operations Risk—A Perspective
		8.2.1 Technological Accident Risk
		8.2.2 Industrial Hazard Risk
		8.2.3 Plant Operational Unreliability and Unavailability Risk
		8.2.4 Security Risk
		8.2.5 Liability Risk
		8.2.6 Integrated Risk Formulation
	8.3 Risk-Based/Risk-Informed and Risk-Conscious Approach
	8.4 Operational Safety Performance Indicators Approach
	8.5 Integrated Operational Risk Assessment Management Framework
		8.5.1 Identification
		8.5.2 Evaluation
		8.5.3 Quantitative Assessment
		8.5.4 Prioritization
		8.5.5 Impact Assessment
		8.5.6 Corrective Actions
		8.5.7 Quality Control and Quality Assurance
		8.5.8 Documentation
	8.6 Precursor Analysis
		8.6.1 General
		8.6.2 Review of Major Accidents and Events and APA Requirements
		8.6.3 Identification of Gap Areas
		8.6.4 Risk-Conscious APA Framework
	8.7 Consideration of Human Factors in the RCOM
	8.8 Root Cause Analysis with Special Interest on Identifying the Human Roots
	8.9 Risk Metrics for Operational Risk Management
	References
9 Artificial Intelligence Based Approach for Operator Support System
	9.1 Introduction
	9.2 Historical Perspective and Literature Review
	9.3 Approaches to Address Human Factors in Operations
		9.3.1 Application of Defense-In-Depth
		9.3.2 Inherently Safe and Passive Design
		9.3.3 Optimized Automation in Support of Decision Making
		9.3.4 Training and Plant Simulators
		9.3.5 Control Room Features
		9.3.6 Major Operator Aids
	9.4 Role of Machine Learning in Operations
		9.4.1 Human Model as Inspiration for Machine Learning
		9.4.2 Can Machine Learning Exhibit Artificial Consciousness Potential
		9.4.3 The Performance Metrics for an Intelligent System
	9.5 Development of a Machine Learning-Based Operator Support System for Nuclear Plants
		9.5.1 General
		9.5.2 Generic Requirements of AI for OSS
		9.5.3 Artificial Neural Network for Transient Identification
	9.6 Diagnostic Module Fuzzy Knowledge-Based Expert System for Diagnosis
		9.6.1 General
		9.6.2 Development Approach
		9.6.3 PRA Knowledge Representation and Rule Extraction
	9.7 Final Remarks
	References
10 Risk-Conscious Maintenance Management
	10.1 Introduction
	10.2 Equipment Life Cycle Aspects
	10.3 A Brief Overview of the Evolution of Maintenance Management
		10.3.1 Breakdown Maintenance
		10.3.2 Periodic Maintenance
		10.3.3 Condition-Based or Predictive Maintenance
		10.3.4 Preventive Maintenance
		10.3.5 Reliability Centered Maintenance
		10.3.6 Prognostics and Health Management
		10.3.7 Risk-Based Maintenance Management
	10.4 Major Challenges
	10.5 Risk-Conscious Maintenance management—The Framework
	10.6 Implementation
		10.6.1 Management and Coordination
		10.6.2 Technical Module
		10.6.3 Risk and Reliability Module
	10.7 Application of RCMM—Surveillance Test Maintenance Interval Optimization
		10.7.1 General Background
		10.7.2 Objective Functions
		10.7.3 Risk-Based Approach to Surveillance Test and Maintenance Interval Optimization
		10.7.4 Genetic Algorithm—An Intelligent Approach to Optimization
	10.8 Critical Aspects of RCCM
		10.8.1 An Integrated Maintenance Management
		10.8.2 Human Factor Considerations
		10.8.3 Common Cause Failure
		10.8.4 Dynamic Quotient in Maintenance Management
		10.8.5 Adoption of Advanced Technology
	References
Annexure A Distributions: A-1 Normal, A-2 F and A-3 Chi-square
	Annexure A Distributions: A-1 Normal, A-2 F and A-3 Chi-square
Annexure B Probability Plotting
Procedure for Probability Plotting
Normal Distribution
Log-Normal Distribution
Weibull Distribution
Annexure C
Annexure D Relevance of Spiritual knowledge/Insights to RCOM culture
D.1   Spiritual
	D.1.1   Nirvana Shatakam
	D.1.2   Bhagavad Gita, Attributed to Veda-Vyasa (Krishna Dvaipayana) [2]
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			D.1.2.1   Chapter 18/Shloka 18
			D.1.2.2   Chapter 18/Shloka 19
			D.1.2.3   Chapter 2/Shloka 47
			D.1.2.4   Chapter 10/Shlokas 4 & 5
			D.1.2.5   Chapter 6 Shloka 34
			D.1.2.6   Chapter 18/Shloka 6&7
		D.1.3    Art of Living—Vipassana School of Meditation
D.2   Poems, Poetry, Prose for Risk-Conscious Operations Management (RCOM) Culture (जोखिम-चैतन संचालन प्रबंधन)
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		D.2.1   RCOM-Formula for Success of Work
		D.2.2   अभियांत्रिकी संचालन (Reactor Operation)
		D.2.3   Sanchalan सुरक्षा
		D.2.4   जोखिम-चैतन संचालन प्रबंधन—Mantra 5W + 1H’
		D.2.5   Types of Valve
		D.2.6   Valves Function
		D.2.7   Role of Reactors
		D.2.8   Reactor General Description (By Comparing with Human Body Functioning)
		D.2.9   Preparing for an Emergency Procedure Execution
		D.2.10   Guidelines for Physical Action
		D.2.11   Purpose of Centrifugal and Positive Displacement Pump
		D.2.12   Ensuring Safety and Security
		D.2.13   Performance of Oral or Simple Calculations
		D.2.14   Thumb-Rule for Operation of Valve (वाल्व खोलन के वास्ते)
		D.2.15   Limitation of Slogan
D.3   Sage Kabir’s Poetry—On Moral and Spiritual Guidance
Annexure E Evaluation of Precursor Risk Factor for Typical Operations Activities