Risk and precaution

Half-title......Page 3
Title......Page 5
Copyright......Page 6
Contents......Page 7
Figures......Page 9
Boxes......Page 10
Authors cited......Page 12
Acknowledgements......Page 16
Acronyms......Page 18
Part I: The precautionary principle – why so much fuss about such a simple idea?......Page 21
1 Precaution as common sense: “Look before you leap”......Page 23
The idea of precaution......Page 25
Business-as-usual stresses......Page 27
Formalizing the PP......Page 28
Adoption by governments and international bodies......Page 29
What is the precautionary principle?......Page 30
Why do we need the precautionary principle now?......Page 31
What are the loopholes in current regulations?......Page 32
Is this a new idea?......Page 33
Nevertheless, PP is controversial......Page 34
Notes......Page 35
A regulatory nightmare......Page 37
Risk–risk trade-offs......Page 38
Stifling innovation......Page 41
PP privileges irrational fears......Page 42
Objectives of this book......Page 45
Notes......Page 48
Part II: Harm and chance – managing risk......Page 49
Chance of harm......Page 51
Chance, because outcomes are generated by a random process......Page 52
Chance, because we do not understand the system that generates outcomes......Page 53
Chance, because the system itself is complex and/or non-stationary......Page 54
Threat – the “chance of harm” concept......Page 55
Individual and collective threats......Page 56
1. Threats from novel interventions – the Hippocratic Oath......Page 58
2. Threats from overstressing systems in the course of business as usual – the rivet popper......Page 60
Notes......Page 61
Risk assessment......Page 63
What prompts a risk assessment?......Page 65
Rational decision making under risk and uncertainty......Page 66
Risk management tools – an economist’s perspective......Page 72
Risk management......Page 73
Notes......Page 75
Challenges to utilitarian decision theory......Page 76
Extended benefit–cost analysis and real options theory: the problem of irreversibility......Page 77
High damage but unlikely events – utilitarianism and infinite prospects......Page 80
Limits of the law of large numbers – emerging systemic risk......Page 81
New models of how the world works – complexity and path dependence......Page 83
Complex systems......Page 84
Complex adaptive systems......Page 85
Resilience – stability and instability in complex systems......Page 87
Path dependence and learning......Page 90
Novel interventions and outcomes......Page 94
Managing complex systems......Page 95
Complexity and high damage but unlikely events – taking big risks seriously......Page 96
Implications......Page 98
Notes......Page 100
Part III: Defining and justifying a coherent precautionary principle......Page 101
6 A defensible precautionary principle must withstand these challenges......Page 103
PP is meaningless and self-defeating......Page 104
PP is logically incoherent......Page 105
PP is redundant......Page 106
PP privileges our worst fears and anxieties rather than engaging our hard-earned rationality......Page 107
1. PP is foolish because it can be invoked by unfounded panic......Page 108
2. PP tilts decision authority away from the experts and toward ordinary people who are susceptible to various cognitive biases and group effects that systematically distort their assessments of risk......Page 109
PP is best understood as a well-intentioned but non-binding endorsement of precaution......Page 111
PP is best understood as a kind of soft norm......Page 112
The PP debate is just a quarrel about who owns the null hypothesis......Page 113
PP is not a complete and coherent stand-alone decision rule......Page 116
There are about twenty different formulations of the PP in circulation, so how can it be taken seriously in real-world (law and) policy (Sandin 1999)?......Page 118
Scope for PP – the tasks ahead......Page 119
Notes......Page 121
7 Toward a precautionary principle framework: evidence, threat, and remedy......Page 122
Notes......Page 128
8 Threat and evidence......Page 129
Threat......Page 130
What kinds of threats are likely to be disproportionate and asymmetric?......Page 134
Certain characteristics of threat situations seem more likely to pose the possibility of asymmetric and disproportionate harm......Page 140
Are uncertainty and irreversibility essential characteristics of PP-relevant threats?......Page 141
Evidence......Page 142
Commonsense notions of what constitutes credible scientific evidence......Page 144
Jurisprudence......Page 145
The locus of wisdom about risk: experts or the public?......Page 147
Politicization and defense of science......Page 150
How much credible evidence of threat is enough to trigger a precautionary response?......Page 151
Notes......Page 152
Precautionary remedies – must they always involve prohibition?......Page 154
Distinguishing three kinds of threat cases......Page 156
Looking more closely at remedies: 1. Novel interventions......Page 160
A stylized case study: genetically modified crops......Page 167
Biodiversity......Page 168
Where might PP prohibitions apply?......Page 169
Is routine pre-release testing too costly?......Page 170
Looking more closely at remedies: 2. BAU – Overstress from business-as-usual......Page 176
Risk dilemmas – Is it ever too late for precaution?......Page 179
Remedies – a summary comment......Page 182
Linking evidence, threat, and remedy......Page 184
Notes......Page 189
10 Precaution for utilitarians?......Page 192
Limits of utilitarian precaution......Page 193
(i) Arguments from preferences......Page 195
(ii) Arguments from the way the world works......Page 199
A bottom line on utilitarian precaution......Page 200
Quantity restrictions and regulatory safety margins – precaution in action?......Page 201
Clarifying the relationship between PP and ORM......Page 202
Notes......Page 203
The structure of a robust precautionary principle......Page 204
This PP is defensible......Page 207
Part IV: Precaution in action......Page 213
12 Precaution: from principle to policy......Page 215
What we mean by “principle”?......Page 216
When valid principles clash......Page 218
A challenging environment for principles and facts......Page 220
Building a framework for precaution......Page 222
Moral foundations for the precautionary principle......Page 223
One principle among many......Page 224
Integrating the PP and ORM substantively and procedurally......Page 227
ORM for manageable risks, the PP for disproportionate threats......Page 228
We can do better than “ORM for manageable risks, the PP for disproportionate threats”......Page 235
Notes......Page 236
13 Integrated risk management......Page 237
Integrated risk management – proposed innovations (NI1)......Page 238
Integrated risk management – NI2 and BAU cases......Page 242
Real-world experience......Page 245
Drugs – FDA......Page 246
Pesticides – EPA......Page 247
Synthetic chemicals – EPA......Page 248
Endangered and threatened species – DOI......Page 249
Fisheries management......Page 251
Bottom line......Page 253
Summary and conclusions......Page 256
Notes......Page 258
Part V: Conclusion......Page 261
14 A role for precaution in an integrated risk management framework......Page 263
Problems with ORM......Page 264
A coherent PP......Page 265
A framework for integrated risk management......Page 267
Notes......Page 270
References......Page 271
Index......Page 277