Risk Analysis of Water Pollution, Second Edition

Risk Analysis of Water Pollution......Page 1
Contents......Page 9
Preface to the Second Edition......Page 15
Preface to the First Edition......Page 17
1 Water Resources: Quantity and Quality......Page 19
1.1 Water Pollution and Risk Analysis......Page 21
1.1.1 A Systemic View of Water Resources......Page 22
1.1.1.1 Examples of Application......Page 23
1.1.2 The New Paradigm of Water Quality......Page 25
1.1.2.2 Ecological Impacts and Biodiversity......Page 27
1.1.2.4 Tourism......Page 28
1.1.2.5 Algal and Chlorophyllic Photosynthesis......Page 30
1.1.3 Integrated Water Resources Management......Page 31
1.2 Water Pollution in Transboundary Regions......Page 36
1.3 The EU Water Framework Directive......Page 37
1.4 Uncertainties in Water Resources Management......Page 39
1.5 Environmental Risk Assessment and Management......Page 41
1.6 Aim and Organisation of the Book......Page 43
1.7 Questions and Problems – Chapter 1......Page 46
2 Risk Identification......Page 49
2.1 Definition of Risk......Page 50
2.2.1 Unacceptable versus Acceptable Risks......Page 56
2.2.3 Gradual versus Sudden Risks......Page 57
2.2.4 The Precautionary Principle......Page 58
2.3 Uncertainties in Water Pollution Problems......Page 59
2.3.2 Epistemic or Man-induced Uncertainties......Page 61
2.4.1 Water Quality Standards......Page 64
2.5 Probabilistic Risk and Reliability......Page 67
2.6 Fuzzy Risk and Reliability......Page 69
2.7 Questions and Problems – Chapter 2......Page 71
3 Risk Quantification......Page 73
3.1.1 Direct Evaluation......Page 74
3.1.1.1 Margin of Safety......Page 77
3.1.1.2 The Safety Factor......Page 80
3.1.2 Second-Moment Formulation......Page 82
3.1.3 Frequency Analysis of Data......Page 84
3.1.3.1 Probability Distribution of Extremes......Page 89
3.1.3.2 Analysis of Frequency......Page 90
3.1.4 Stochastic Modelling......Page 95
3.1.4.1 Deterministic Modelling......Page 96
3.1.4.2 Stochastic Modelling......Page 98
3.1.5 Monte Carlo Simulation......Page 101
3.2.1 Fuzzy Regression......Page 105
3.2.1.2 Statistical Regression......Page 106
3.2.1.3 Interval Regression......Page 107
3.2.1.4 Fuzzy Regression......Page 108
3.2.2 Fuzzy Modelling......Page 113
3.3.1 Failure and Reliability Functions......Page 114
3.3.2 Failure Rate and Hazard Function......Page 116
3.3.3 Expected Life......Page 117
3.3.4.1 Series Systems......Page 119
3.3.4.2 Parallel Systems......Page 121
3.4 Questions and Problems – Chapter 3......Page 122
4 Risk Assessment of Environmental Water Quality......Page 127
4.1.1 Uncertainties in Coastal Water Quality Processes......Page 128
4.1.2 Mathematical Modelling......Page 131
4.1.2.1 Molecular Diffusion......Page 132
4.1.2.2 Turbulent Diffusion......Page 136
4.1.2.3 Turbulent Dispersion......Page 138
4.1.2.4 Growth Kinetics......Page 139
4.1.2.5 Coastal Circulation......Page 143
4.1.3 Random Walk Simulation......Page 146
4.1.4 Dispersion by Wind-generated Currents......Page 152
4.2.1 Introduction......Page 154
4.2.2.1 Physically Based Mathematical Models......Page 155
4.2.2.2 Numerical Simulation......Page 158
4.2.3 Time Series of Water Quality Data......Page 159
4.2.4 Risk Assessment......Page 160
4.3 Risk in Groundwater Contamination......Page 163
4.3.1.1 Groundwater in the Hydrological Cycle......Page 164
4.3.1.2 Steps in Groundwater Development......Page 165
4.3.2.1 Water in Geological Formations......Page 167
4.3.2.2 Space and Time Scales......Page 170
4.3.3.1 Scale Effects......Page 172
4.3.3.2 Measurements and Field Investigations......Page 175
4.3.4.1 Conceptual Models and Flow Equations......Page 176
4.3.4.2 Analytical Solutions......Page 178
4.3.5.1 Uncertainties in Aquifer Contamination Studies......Page 181
4.3.5.2 Stochastic Description......Page 182
4.3.6.1 Immiscible Fluids......Page 184
4.3.6.2 Solute Transport and Random Walks......Page 187
4.4 Questions and Problems – Chapter 4......Page 190
5.1 Performance Indices and Figures of Merit......Page 191
5.2.1 Economic Optimisation under Certainty and under Risk......Page 193
5.2.2 Optimisation Methods......Page 197
5.2.2.1 Mathematical Programming......Page 198
5.2.3 Discontinuous Decision Problems......Page 202
5.3.1 Main Elements of Decision Making......Page 206
5.3.1.1 Decision under Certainty......Page 208
5.3.2.1 Decision Making under Uncertainty......Page 209
5.3.2.2 Decision Making under Risk......Page 211
5.3.3 Baye\'s Analysis and Value of Information......Page 212
5.3.3.2 Imperfect Information......Page 213
5.4 Elements of the Utility Theory......Page 215
5.5 Multi-objective Decision Analysis......Page 216
5.5.1 Feasible, Non-dominated and Efficient Solutions......Page 219
5.5.2 Solution Procedures and Typology of MCDA Techniques......Page 220
5.6 Questions and Problems – Chapter 5......Page 221
6 Case Studies......Page 223
6.1 Coastal Pollution: the Thermaikos Gulf (Macedonia, Greece)......Page 224
6.1.1 Description of the Thermaikos Gulf......Page 225
6.1.2 Water Circulation Patterns......Page 229
6.1.3 Water Quality Assessment......Page 230
6.1.4.1 Temperature and Climate Change......Page 237
6.1.4.2 Monte Carlo Simulation......Page 239
6.2.1 Present Situation......Page 244
6.2.1.1 Axios River......Page 245
6.2.2 Mathematical Modelling......Page 247
6.3 Groundwater Pollution: the Campaspe Aquifer (Victoria, Australia)......Page 249
6.3.1 The Study Area......Page 250
6.3.2.2 Random Walk Simulation......Page 253
A.1 Basic Probability......Page 259
A.2 The Multiplicative Law......Page 261
A.4 Rare Events......Page 262
A.6 Bayes\' Theorem......Page 264
A.7 Random Variables......Page 266
A.7.1 Discrete Random Variables......Page 267
A.8 Expectation, Variance and Standard Deviation......Page 269
A.9 Derived Distributions......Page 270
A.11.1 Sum of Random Variables......Page 272
A.11.2 Difference of Random Variables......Page 273
A.11.3 Product of Random Variables......Page 274
A.11.4 Ratio of Random Variables......Page 275
B.1 Basic Definitions......Page 277
B.2 Fuzzy Sets......Page 278
B.4 Fuzzy Numbers......Page 284
B.4.2 Triangular and Trapezoidal Fuzzy Numbers......Page 286
B.4.3 Support and h-Level of a Fuzzy Number......Page 287
B.5 Cartesian Product......Page 288
B.6 Extension Principle......Page 289
B.8 Arithmetic Operations on Intervals......Page 290
B.8.2 Multiplication and Division of Intervals......Page 291
B.8.3 Addition of Fuzzy Numbers......Page 292
B.8.5 Multiplication of Fuzzy Numbers......Page 293
B.8.7 Minimum and Maximum of Fuzzy Numbers......Page 294
B.8.9 Convolution of Fuzzy Numbers......Page 296
C.1 Answers to Questions and Problems – Chapter 1......Page 297
C.2 Answers to Questions and Problems – Chapter 2......Page 301
C.3 Answers to Questions and Problems – Chapter 3......Page 304
C.4 Answers to Questions and Problems – Chapter 4......Page 307
C.5 Answers to Questions and Problems – Chapter 5......Page 308
References......Page 311
Index......Page 319