Reliability Evaluation of Power Systems

Reliability Evaluation of Power Systems......Page 1
Preface to the first edition......Page 5
Preface to the second edition......Page 7
Contents......Page 9
1.1 Background......Page 21
1.2 Changing scenario......Page 22
1.3 Probabilistic reliability criteria......Page 23
1.4 Statistical and probabilistic measures......Page 24
1.5 Absolute and relative measures......Page 25
1.6 Methods of assessment......Page 26
1.7 Concepts of adequacy and security......Page 28
1.8 System analysis......Page 30
1.9 Reliability cost and reliability worth......Page 32
1.10 Concepts of data......Page 34
1.11 Concluding comments......Page 35
1.12 References......Page 36
2.1 Introduction......Page 38
2.2.1 Generating unit unavailability......Page 41
2.2.2 Capacity outage probability tables......Page 44
2.2.3 Comparison of deterministic and probabilistic criteria......Page 47
2.2.4 A recursive algorithm for capacity model building......Page 50
2.2.5 Recursive algorithm for unit removal......Page 51
2.2.6 Alternative model-bailding techniques......Page 53
2.3.1 Concepts and evaluation techniques......Page 57
2.3.2 Numerical examples......Page 60
2.4 Equivalent forced outage rate (EFOR)......Page 66
2.5.1 Evaluation techniques......Page 68
2.5.2 Perturbation effects......Page 70
2.6 Scheduled outages......Page 72
2.7 Evaluation methods on period bases......Page 75
2.8 Load forecast uncertainty......Page 76
2.9 Forced outage rate uncertainty......Page 81
2.9.1 Exact method......Page 82
2.9.3 Application......Page 83
2.9.4 LOLE computation......Page 84
2.9.5 Additional considerations......Page 87
2.10.1 Evaluation of energy indices......Page 88
2.10.2 Expected energy not supplied......Page 90
2.10.3 Energy-limited systems......Page 93
2.11 Practical system studies......Page 95
2.12 Conclusions......Page 96
2.13 Problems......Page 97
2.14 References......Page 99
3.1 Introduction......Page 103
3.2.1 Fundamental development......Page 104
3.2.2 Recursive algorithm for capacity model building......Page 109
3.3.1 Individual state load model......Page 115
3.3.2 Cumulative state load model......Page 123
3.4.1 Base case study......Page 125
3.4.2 System expansion studies......Page 128
3.6 Problems......Page 134
3.7 References......Page 135
4.1 Introduction......Page 137
4.2.1 Concepts......Page 138
4.2.2 Evaluation techniques......Page 139
4.3 Equivalent assisting unit approach to two interconnected systems......Page 140
4.4.2 Effect of tie capacity......Page 144
4.4.3 Effect of tie line reliability......Page 145
4.4.4 Effect of number of tie lines......Page 146
4.4.5 Effect of de-capacity uncertainty......Page 149
4.4.6 Effect of interconnection agreements......Page 150
4.5 Variable reserve versus maximum peak load reserve......Page 152
4.6.1 Direct assistance from two systems......Page 154
4.6.2 Indirect assistance from two systems......Page 155
4.7 Multi-connected systems......Page 159
4.8.1 Concepts......Page 161
4.8.2 Applications......Page 162
4.8.3 Period analysis......Page 165
4.10 Problems......Page 167
4.11 References......Page 168
5.1 General concepts......Page 170
5.2.2 Outage replacement rate (ORR)......Page 171
5.2.3 Generation model......Page 172
5.2.4 Unit commitment risk......Page 173
5.3.1 Load forecast uncertainty......Page 174
5.3.2 Derated (partial output) states......Page 175
5.4.2 Area risk curves......Page 176
5.4.3 Modelling rapid start units......Page 178
5.4.4 Modelling hot reserve units......Page 181
5.4.5 Unit commitment risk......Page 182
5.4.6 Numerical examples......Page 183
5.5.2 Modelling postponable outages......Page 188
5.6.1 Concepts......Page 190
5.6.2 Security function model......Page 191
5.7.1 Concepts......Page 192
5.7.2 Evaluation techniques......Page 193
5.7.3 Effect of distributing spinning reserve......Page 194
5.7.4 Effect of hydro-electric units......Page 195
5.7.5 Effect of rapid start units......Page 196
5.9 Conclusions......Page 198
5.10 Problems......Page 199
5.11 References......Page 200
6.1 introduction......Page 202
6.2 Radial configurations......Page 203
6.3 Conditional probability approach......Page 204
6.4 Network configurations......Page 210
6.5.2 Application......Page 214
6.6.1 Concepts......Page 216
6.6.2 Numerical evaluation......Page 219
6.7 Application to practical systems......Page 224
6.8.2 Deterministic data......Page 230
6.8.4 Independent outages......Page 231
6.8.6 Common mode outages......Page 232
6.8.7 Station originated outages......Page 233
6.9 Conclusions......Page 235
6.10 Problems......Page 236
6.11 References......Page 238
7.1 Introduction......Page 240
7.2 Evaluation techniques......Page 241
7.3.2 Customer-orientated indices......Page 243
7 3.3 Load- and energy-orientated indices......Page 245
7.3.4 System performance......Page 246
7.3.5 System prediction......Page 248
7.4 Application to radial systems......Page 249
7.5 Effect of lateral distributor protection......Page 252
7.7 Effect of protection failures......Page 254
7.8.1 No restrictions on transfer......Page 258
7.8.2 Transfer restrictions......Page 260
7.9.2 Failure rate......Page 264
7.9.3 Restoration times......Page 265
7.11 Problems......Page 266
7.12 References......Page 267
8.1 Introduction......Page 269
8.2.1 State space diagrams......Page 270
8.2.3 Network reduction method......Page 272
8.2.4 Failure modes and effects analysis......Page 273
8.3 Inclusion of busbar failures......Page 275
8.4.1 General concepts......Page 277
8.4.2 Evaluation techniques......Page 278
8.4.3 Coordinated and uncoordinated maintenance......Page 279
8.4.4 Numerical example......Page 280
8.5.2 Evaluation techniques......Page 282
8.5.3 Numerical example......Page 285
8.6.1 Concepts......Page 286
8.6.2 Weather state modelling......Page 287
8.6.3 Failure rates in a two-state weather model......Page 288
8.6.5 Overlapping forced outages......Page 290
8.6.6 Numerical examples......Page 294
8.6.7 Forced outage overlapping maintenance......Page 297
8.6.8 Numerical examples......Page 301
8.6.9 Application to complex systems......Page 303
8.7.1 Evaluation techniques......Page 305
8.7.2 Application and numerical examples......Page 307
8.8.1 Evaluation techniques......Page 309
8.8.2 Sensitivity analysis......Page 311
8.9.1 Simplest breaker model......Page 312
8.9.2 Failure modes of a breaker......Page 313
8.9.3 Modelling assumptions......Page 314
8.9.4 Simplified breaker models......Page 315
8.9.5 Numerical example......Page 316
8.10 Conclusions......Page 317
9.1 Introduction......Page 322
9.2 Total loss of continuity......Page 323
9.3.2 PLOC criteria......Page 325
9.3.4 Evaluation of PLOC indices......Page 326
9.3.5 Extended load - duration curve......Page 329
9.3.6 Numerical example......Page 330
9.4.1 General concepts......Page 331
9.4.2 Transferable load modelling......Page 334
9.4.3 Evaluation techniques......Page 336
9.4.4 Numerical example......Page 337
9.5.1 General concepts......Page 339
9.5.2 Outage costs......Page 342
9.7 Problems......Page 345
9.8 References......Page 346
10.2.1 Concepts......Page 347
10.2.3 Numerical examples......Page 349
10.4.1 Open circuits and inadvertent opening of breakers......Page 352
10.4.2 Short circuits......Page 353
10.5.1 General concepts......Page 354
10.5.2 Effect of failure mode......Page 356
10.5.3 Simulation of failure modes......Page 358
10.5.4 Evaluation of reliability indices......Page 359
10.6.2 .Numerical example......Page 361
10.6.3 Deduction and evaluation......Page 362
10.7 Numerical analysis of typical substation......Page 363
10.8.1 Malfunction of normally open breakers......Page 368
10.8.2 Failures in alternative supplies......Page 369
10.10 Problems......Page 372
10.11 References......Page 374
11.1.2 Generating units......Page 375
11.1.3 Including effect of station transformers......Page 378
11.2.1 Concepts......Page 381
11.2.2 Modelling derated states......Page 382
11.3.2 Review of modelling techniques......Page 385
11.3.3 Numerical examples......Page 387
11.4.2 Evaluation techniques and system modelling......Page 394
11.4.3 Evaluation of failure to operate......Page 395
11.4.4 Evaluation of inadvertent operation......Page 401
11.5.1 Concepts......Page 402
11.5.3 Rectifier/inverter bridges......Page 404
11.5.4 Bridge equivalents......Page 406
11.5.5 Converter stations......Page 409
11.5.6 Transmission links and filters......Page 411
11.5.7 Composite HVDC link......Page 412
11.5.8 Numerical examples......Page 415
11.7 Problems......Page 416
11.8 References......Page 418
12.1 Introduction......Page 420
12.3 Concepts of simulation......Page 421
12.5 Simulation output......Page 423
12.6.2 Modelling Concepts......Page 425
12.6.3 LOLE assessment with nonchronological load......Page 429
12.6.4 LOLE assessment with chronological load......Page 432
12.6.5 Reliability assessment with nonchronological load......Page 436
12.6.6 Reliability assessment with chronological load......Page 437
12.7.1 Introduction......Page 442
12.7.3 Numerical applications......Page 443
12.7.4 Extensions to basic approach......Page 445
12.8.1 Introduction......Page 446
12.8.2 Modeling concepts......Page 447
12.8.3 Numerical examples for radial networks......Page 450
12.8.4 Numerical examples for meshed (parallel) networks......Page 453
12.9 Conclusions......Page 459
12.11 References......Page 460
13.2 implicit/explicit evaluation of reliability worth......Page 463
13.3 Customer interruption cost evaluation......Page 464
13.4 Basic evaluation approaches......Page 465
13.5.2 Cost valuation methods......Page 467
13.6.1 Concepts......Page 470
13.6.2 Reliability worth assessment at HLI......Page 471
13.6.3 Reliability worth assessment at HLII......Page 479
13.6.4 Reliability worth assessment in the distribution functional zone......Page 482
13.6.5 Station reliability worth assessment......Page 489
13.7 Conclusions......Page 492
13.8 References......Page 493
14 Epilogue......Page 496
Appendix 1 Definitions......Page 498
A2.2 IEEE-RTS......Page 501
A2.3.1 Single system......Page 504
A2.3.3 Frequency and duration approach......Page 506
A2.5 References......Page 510
A3.2 Symbols......Page 511
A3.3 Temporary/transient failure overlapping two permanentfailures......Page 512
A3.4 Temporary/transient failure overlapping a permanent and amaintenance outage......Page 513
A3.5.2 Only two components may suffer a common mode failure......Page 515
A3.6 Adverse weather effects......Page 516
A3.7.2 Repair is not done during adverse weather......Page 519
Solutions to problems......Page 520
Index......Page 529