Reliability engineering and services

Cover......Page 1
Title Page......Page 7
Copyright......Page 8
Contents......Page 11
Series Editor's Foreword......Page 23
Preface......Page 25
Acknowledgement......Page 27
About the Companion Website......Page 29
  1.2.1 Managing Reliability for Product Lifecycle......Page 31
  1.2.2 Reliability Is a Probabilistic Measure......Page 32
  1.2.3 Failure Rate and Hazard Rate Function......Page 34
  1.2.4 Bathtub Hazard Rate Curve......Page 35
  1.2.5 Failure Intensity Rate......Page 37
  1.3.1 Mean‐Time‐to‐Failure......Page 39
  1.3.2 Mean‐Time‐Between‐Failures......Page 40
  1.3.3 Mean‐Time‐Between‐Replacements......Page 42
  1.3.4 Mean Residual Life......Page 43
  1.4.2 System Availability......Page 44
  1.5.2 Binomial Distribution......Page 45
  1.5.3 Poisson Distribution......Page 47
  1.6.1 The Uniform Distribution......Page 48
  1.6.2 The Exponential Distribution......Page 49
  1.6.3 The Weibull Distribution......Page 50
  1.6.4 The Normal Distribution......Page 52
  1.6.5 The Lognormal Distribution......Page 53
  1.6.6 The Gamma Distribution......Page 55
  1.7.2 Bayes Formula......Page 58
  1.8.1 Discrete Markov Model......Page 60
  1.8.2 Birth–Death Model......Page 61
  1.8.3 Poisson Process......Page 62
 References......Page 64
 2.2 Reliability Block Diagram......Page 71
  2.3.1 Reliability of Series System......Page 73
  2.3.2 Mean and Variance of Reliability Estimate......Page 74
  2.4.1 Reliability of Parallel Systems......Page 77
  2.4.2 Mean and Variance of Reliability Estimate......Page 78
  2.5.1 Series–Parallel System......Page 79
  2.5.3 Mixed Series–Parallel System......Page 82
  2.6.1 Reliability for Hot‐Standby Redundant Systems......Page 85
  2.6.2 Application to Data Storage Systems......Page 86
  2.7.1 Edge Decomposition......Page 88
  2.7.2 Minimum Cut Set......Page 89
  2.7.3 Minimum Path Set......Page 91
  2.7.4 Linear‐Quadratic Approximation to Terminal‐Pair Reliability......Page 92
  2.7.5 Moments of Terminal‐Pair Reliability Estimate......Page 95
  2.8.1 Confidence Interval for Pass/Fail Tests......Page 96
  2.9.1 Series or Parallel Systems with Three‐State Components......Page 98
  2.9.2 Universal Generating Function......Page 99
  2.10.1 Marginal Reliability Importance......Page 101
  2.10.2 Joint Reliability Importance Measure......Page 103
  2.10.3 Integrated Importance Measure for Multistate System......Page 104
  2.10.4 Integrated Importance Measure for System Lifetime......Page 106
 References......Page 108
  3.2.1 Reliability–Design Cost......Page 119
  3.2.3 Minimizing Product Lifecycle Cost......Page 122
  3.3.1 Reliability Allocation for Cost Minimization......Page 125
  3.3.2 Reliability Allocation under Cost Constraint......Page 127
  3.3.3 Redundancy Allocation for Series System......Page 129
  3.3.4 Redundancy Allocation for k‐out‐of‐n Subsystems......Page 130
  3.4.1 Pareto Optimality......Page 133
  3.4.2 Maximizing Reliability and Minimizing Variance......Page 134
  3.4.3 Numerical Experiment......Page 136
  3.5.1 Component Failure Rate Estimate......Page 138
  3.5.2 Component with Life Data......Page 140
  3.5.3 Components without Life Data......Page 141
  3.5.4 Non‐component Failure Rate......Page 143
  3.6.1 Temperature Variation......Page 145
  3.6.2 Electrical Derating Variation......Page 147
  3.7.1 Functional Block Diagram......Page 148
  3.7.2 Fault‐Tree Analysis......Page 150
  3.8.1 Priority Risk Number......Page 151
  3.9.1 Principle of Design for Six Sigma......Page 153
  3.9.2 Implementation of Printed Circuit Board Design......Page 155
 References......Page 157
 4.2 Classification of Failures......Page 163
 4.3 Failure Mode Types......Page 166
  4.4.1 The Causes of NFF......Page 168
   4.4.2.1 Equipment Level of Support......Page 169
   4.4.2.3 In Spare Parts Inventory and Supply Chain......Page 170
  4.5.1 Engineering Change Order Versus Retrofit......Page 171
  4.5.2 Corrective Action Effectiveness......Page 172
  4.6.1 Duane Postulate......Page 175
  4.6.2 Power Law Model......Page 177
  4.6.3 Trend Test Statistics......Page 178
  4.6.4 Bounded Failure Intensity Model......Page 180
  4.6.5 Bayesian Projection Model......Page 182
  4.7.1 Optimal Reliability Growth Test......Page 184
  4.7.2 Reliability Demonstration Test......Page 186
   4.7.2.2 Exponential Chi‐Squared......Page 187
  4.8.1 Reliability Growth of Field Systems......Page 189
  4.8.2 Prediction of Latent Failure Modes......Page 190
  4.8.3 Allocation of Corrective Action Resource......Page 193
  4.9.1 Optimizing Reliability Growth Test of Diesel Engines......Page 194
  4.9.2 Multiphase Reliability Growth Strategy......Page 195
 References......Page 196
  5.2.1 HALT, HASS, and ESS......Page 201
   5.2.2.2 Electrical Stress......Page 204
  5.2.3 Stress Profiling......Page 205
  5.3.1 Exponential Accelerated Failure Time Model......Page 208
  5.3.2 Weibull AFT Models......Page 210
  5.3.3 Lognormal AFT Models......Page 211
  5.3.5 Miner's Rule under Cyclic Loading......Page 212
  5.4.1 Accelerated Life Factor......Page 214
  5.5.1 Eyring Model......Page 217
  5.5.2 Inverse Power Law Model......Page 218
  5.6.1 Proportional Hazard Model......Page 220
  5.6.3 Logistic Regression Model......Page 223
  5.6.4 Log‐Logistic Regression Model......Page 224
  5.7.1 Reliability with HASS Versus Non‐HASS......Page 225
  5.7.2 Financial Justification of HASS......Page 227
  5.8.1 DMAIC in Six Sigma Reliability Program......Page 229
   5.8.2.1 Financial Analysis......Page 230
  5.8.3 Measure – Infant Mortality Distribution......Page 231
  5.8.4 Analyze – Root Cause of Early Failures......Page 232
  5.8.6 Control – Monitoring and Documentation......Page 233
 References......Page 234
  6.2.1 Overview of Renewal Solution Methods......Page 241
  6.2.2 Generic Renewal Function......Page 242
  6.2.3 Renewal in Laplace Transform......Page 245
  6.2.4 Geometric and Geometric‐Type Renewal......Page 246
  6.2.5 Generalized Renewal Process......Page 247
  6.3.2 Erlang Renewal......Page 249
  6.4.1 Generalized Exponential Distribution......Page 251
  6.4.2 Renewal in Laplace Transform......Page 253
  6.4.3 Inverse Laplace Transform......Page 255
  6.5.1 Approximation by Mixed Exponential Functions......Page 256
  6.5.2 Laplace and Inverse Laplace Transform......Page 259
  6.6.1 Transient Renewal Function......Page 260
  6.6.2 Approximation without Oscillation......Page 263
  6.6.3 Approximation with Oscillation......Page 265
  6.7.1 Superimposed Exponential Renewal......Page 269
  6.7.2 Superimposed Erlang Renewal......Page 272
  6.7.3 Lead‐Time Renewal......Page 274
  6.8.1 Aggregate Exponential Renewal......Page 275
  6.8.2 Lead‐Time Renewal......Page 277
  6.9.1 Installed Base of Wind Turbines in the USA......Page 278
  6.9.2 Spare Parts Prediction under Fleet Expansion......Page 279
 References......Page 282
  7.2.1 Classification of Maintenance Policy......Page 289
  7.2.2 Corrective Maintenance Management......Page 291
  7.3.1 Block Replacement......Page 292
  7.3.2 Age‐Based Replacement......Page 295
  7.4.1 Principle of Condition‐Based Maintenance......Page 297
  7.4.2 Proportional Hazard Model......Page 299
  7.4.3 Gamma Degradation Process......Page 301
  7.4.4 Stationary Gamma Degradation Process......Page 304
  7.5.1 Distribution of Inverse Gaussian Process......Page 305
  7.5.2 Probability Density Function of First Passage Time......Page 307
  7.6.1 The Degradation Model......Page 308
  7.6.2 Hypothesis Testing......Page 311
  7.6.3 Estimation of Remaining Useful Life......Page 313
  7.7.1 The Rise of Performance‐Driven Service......Page 315
  7.7.2 Procedures for PBM Implementation......Page 317
  7.7.3 Five Overarching Performance Measures......Page 318
  7.7.4 Reliability and MTBF Considering Usage Rate......Page 319
  7.7.5 Operational Availability under Corrective Maintenance......Page 320
  7.7.6 Operational Availability under Preventive Maintenance......Page 322
  7.8.1 Incentive Payment Schemes......Page 323
  7.8.2 Game‐Theoretic Contracting Model......Page 324
  7.9.2 A Four‐Step Process for RUL Prediction......Page 325
 References......Page 329
  8.2.1 Overview of Warranty Services......Page 339
  8.2.2 Classification of Warranty Policy......Page 341
  8.3.1 Warranty Reserve under Pro‐Rata Rebate......Page 342
  8.3.2 Warranty Reserve under Fixed Rebate......Page 344
  8.3.3 Mixed Warranty Policy......Page 346
  8.3.4 Optimal Preventive Maintenance under Warranty......Page 348
  8.4.1 Warranty Cost under as‐Good‐as‐New Repair......Page 351
  8.4.2 Warranty Cost under Minimum Repair......Page 354
  8.5.1 Pro‐Rata Rebate Policy......Page 355
  8.5.2 Warranty Service Demands with Failures Not Claimed......Page 357
  8.6.1 Warranty Decision from Customer Perspective......Page 359
  8.6.2 System Availability Under Warranty Services......Page 361
  8.6.3 Fleet Downtime Cost to Customer......Page 363
  8.6.4 Minimizing the Downtime Cost......Page 364
  8.7.1 Extended Warranty Contracts......Page 365
  8.7.2 Two‐Dimensional Warranty......Page 368
  8.8.1 Minimizing Warranty Cost......Page 370
  8.8.2 Application to Electronics Product Design......Page 371
 References......Page 373
  9.2.1 Inventory Cost and Review Policy......Page 379
  9.2.2 Inventory Demand Patterns......Page 381
  9.3.1 EOQ with No Backorders......Page 382
  9.3.2 EOQ Model with Backlogging......Page 384
  9.4.1 The Single‐Period Inventory Model......Page 387
  9.4.2 Inventory Performance Measures......Page 389
  9.5.1 Optimal Policy with Fixed Lead Time......Page 391
  9.5.2 Record Point with Variable Lead Time......Page 394
  9.5.3 The Base Stock Policy......Page 395
  9.6.1 The Inventory Control Mechanism......Page 398
  9.6.2 Approximation Solution to Optimal Policy......Page 399
  9.6.3 Variable Lead Time......Page 400
  9.6.4 The (S − 1, S, T) Periodic Review Policy......Page 401
  9.7.1 The Concept of Echelon Inventory......Page 402
  9.7.2 Bullwhip Effect and Supply Resilience......Page 405
  9.8.1 Spare Parts Demand Pattern......Page 407
  9.8.2 Data‐Driven Method......Page 409
  9.8.4 Installation‐Based Model......Page 410
  9.8.5 Forecasting under Reliability Growth and Fleet Expansion......Page 411
 References......Page 413
  10.2.1 Spare Parts Supply Mode......Page 421
  10.2.2 Item‐Level Performance Measures......Page 423
  10.2.3 System‐Level Performance Measures......Page 424
  10.2.4 Item Approach Versus System Approach......Page 425
  10.3.1 Operational Structure......Page 426
  10.3.2 Demand During Repair Turn‐Around Time......Page 428
  10.3.3 Performance Characterization......Page 430
  10.3.4 Variance of Backorders......Page 431
  10.4.1 Operational Structure......Page 432
  10.4.2 Performance Characterization......Page 433
  10.4.3 Expected Backorders and On‐Hand Inventory......Page 434
  10.5.1 The Machine‐Inventory Model......Page 435
  10.5.2 Performance Characterization......Page 436
  10.6.1 Prioritizing Repair and Supply Services......Page 438
  10.6.2 System Downtime and Availability......Page 439
  10.7.1 Non‐stationary Parts Demand......Page 442
  10.7.2 Multiresolution Inventory Control......Page 443
  10.7.3 Optimization Model and Algorithm......Page 444
  10.8.1 Basic Assumptions of the METRIC Model......Page 447
  10.8.2 Compound Poisson Demand......Page 448
  10.8.3 Expected Backorders for Single Item......Page 450
  10.8.4 Multi‐echelon, Multi‐item Optimization Model......Page 452
  10.9.1 Distributed Product‐Service Operation......Page 454
   10.9.2.2 Monitoring and Predicting Reliability of System and Parts......Page 455
   10.9.2.3 Implementing Corrective Actions Against Critical Failure Modes......Page 456
  10.9.3 Repair Turn‐Around Time and Failure Mode......Page 457
 References......Page 462
  11.2.1 Blurring Between Product and Service......Page 469
  11.2.2 Technological Factors......Page 470
  11.2.3 The State of the Art......Page 472
  11.3.1 Lifecycle Cost Analysis......Page 474
   11.3.1.1 Design Cost Versus Reliability......Page 475
   11.3.1.2 Manufacturing Cost Versus Reliability......Page 476
  11.3.2 Minimizing Lifecycle Cost of Single‐Item Fleet......Page 477
  11.3.3 Maximizing Service Profit of Multi‐item System Fleet......Page 479
  11.3.4 Optimization Algorithm......Page 480
  11.4.1 Multiresolution Inventory Policy......Page 481
  11.4.2 Estimating the Inventory Cost......Page 483
   11.4.2.4 Total Inventory Cost......Page 484
   11.4.3.3 Parts Repair Cost......Page 485
   11.4.4.1 The Optimization Model......Page 486
   11.4.4.2 Optimization Algorithm......Page 487
  11.5.1 Inventory Demand under Preventive Maintenance......Page 488
   11.5.2.2 Repair Turn‐Around Time Versus Cost......Page 492
  11.5.3 Principal–Agent Contracting Model......Page 493
  11.5.4 Moral Hazard and Asymmetric Information......Page 494
  11.5.5 First‐Best Solution......Page 495
  11.6.1 Line Replaceable Units of Wind Turbine......Page 497
  11.6.2 Maximizing the Service Profitability......Page 498
 References......Page 505
  12.2.1 Resilience in Different Domains......Page 511
   12.2.1.3 Economic Resilience......Page 512
   12.2.1.4 Engineering Resilience......Page 513
  12.2.2 Resilience Curves......Page 514
  12.2.3 Resilience Measures......Page 515
  12.3.1 Reliability Versus Resilience......Page 519
  12.3.2 Reliability Measures of Power Grid......Page 520
  12.3.4 Modeling Hurricane Events......Page 523
   12.3.4.1 Annual Occurrence......Page 525
   12.3.4.3 Translation Speed......Page 526
   12.3.4.6 Wind Speed Decay Rate......Page 527
   12.3.4.7 Central Pressure Filling Rate......Page 528
   12.3.4.8 Maximum Wind Speed......Page 529
   12.4.2.1 Fragility Model of Overhead Lines......Page 530
  12.4.3 Proactive Maintenance......Page 532
  12.4.4 Decentralized Resource Allocation......Page 533
   12.4.4.2 Onsite Generation......Page 534
   12.4.4.3 Active Distribution Network......Page 535
  12.4.5 Recovery and Restoration......Page 536
  12.5.1 Wind Turbine System......Page 538
  12.5.2 Solar Photovoltaic System......Page 539
  12.5.4 Demand Response Model......Page 540
   12.5.4.3 Curtailment Levels......Page 541
  12.6.1 Background Information......Page 542
  12.6.3 Survivability via Microgrid Operation......Page 543
  12.6.4 Recovery under Multiteam Repair......Page 544
 References......Page 546
Index......Page 555