Probability, Choice, and Reason

Cover
Half Title
Title Page
Copyright Page
Dedication
Table of Contents
Preface
Author Biography
Chapter 1 Probability, Evidence, and Reason
	1.1 Bayes’ Theorem: The Most Powerful Equation in the World
		1.1.1 Appendix
		1.1.2 Exercise
		1.1.3 Reading and Links
	1.2 Bayes and the Taxi Problem
		1.2.1 Appendix
		1.2.2 Exercise
		1.2.3 Reading and Links
	1.3 Bayes and the Beetle
		1.3.1 Appendix
		1.3.2 Exercise
		1.3.3 Reading and Links
	1.4 Bayes and the False Positives Problem
		1.4.1 Examples
		1.4.2 Appendix
			1.4.2.1 Sensitivity and Specificity
			1.4.2.2 Vaccine Efficacy
		1.4.3 Exercise
		1.4.4 Reading and Links
	1.5 Bayes and the Bobby Smith Problem
		1.5.1 Appendix
		1.5.2 Exercise
		1.5.3 Reading and Links
	1.6 Bayes and the Broken Window
		1.6.1 Appendix
		1.6.2 Exercise
	1.7 The Bayesian Detective Problem
		1.7.1 Epilogue
		1.7.2 Exercise
	1.8 Bayesian Bus Problems
		1.8.1 Exercise
	1.9 Bayes at the Theatre
		1.9.1 Appendix
		1.9.2 Exercise
		1.9.3 Reading and Links
	1.10 Bayes in the Courtroom
		1.10.1 Exercise
		1.10.2 Reading and Links
Chapter 2 Probability Paradoxes
	2.1 The Bertrand’s Box Paradox
		2.1.1 Exercise
		2.1.2 Reading and Links
	2.2 The Monty Hall Problem
		2.2.1 Appendix
			2.2.1.1 Alternative Derivation
		2.2.2 Exercise
		2.2.3 Reading and Links
	2.3 The Three Prisoners Problem
		2.3.1 Exercise
		2.3.2 Reading and Links
	2.4 The Deadly Doors Problem
		2.4.1 Exercise
		2.4.2 Reading and Links
	2.5 Portia’s Challenge
		2.5.1 Exercise
		2.5.2 Reading and Links
	2.6 The Boy–Girl Paradox
		2.6.1 Appendix
		2.6.2 Exercise
		2.6.3 Reading and Links
	2.7 The Girl Named Florida Problem
		2.7.1 Appendix
		2.7.2 Exercise
		2.7.3 Reading and Links
	2.8 The Two Envelopes Problem
		2.8.1 Exercise
		2.8.2 Reading and Links
	2.9 The Birthday Problem
		2.9.1 Exercise
		2.9.2 Reading and Links
	2.10 The Inspection Paradox
		2.10.1 Exercise
		2.10.2 Reading and Links
	2.11 Berkson’s Paradox
		2.11.2 Exercise
		2.11.3 Reading and Links
	2.12 Simpson’s Paradox
		2.12.1 Exercise
		2.12.2 Reading and Links
	2.13 The Will Rogers Phenomenon
		2.13.1 Exercise
		2.13.2 Reading and Links
Chapter 3 Probability and Choice
	3.1 Newcomb’s Paradox
		3.1.1 Exercise
		3.1.2 Reading and Links
	3.2 The Sleeping Beauty Problem
		3.2.1 Exercise
		3.2.2 Reading and Links
	3.3 The God’s Coin Toss Problem
		3.3.1 Exercise
		3.3.2 Reading and Links
	3.4 The Doomsday Argument
		3.4.1 Exercise
		3.4.2 Reading and Links
	3.5 When Should You Stop Looking and Start Choosing?
		3.5.1 Exercise
		3.5.2 Reading and Links
	3.6 Why Do We Always Seem to End Up in the Slower Lane?
		3.6.1 Exercise
		3.6.2 Reading and Links
	3.7 Pascal’s Wager
		3.7.1 Exercise
		3.7.2 Reading and Links
	3.8 The Keynesian Beauty Contest
		3.8.1 Exercise
		3.8.2 Reading and Links
	3.9 Benford’s Law
		3.9.1 Exercise
		3.9.2 Reading and Links
	3.10 Faking Randomness
		3.10.1 Exercise
		3.10.2 Reading and Links
Chapter 4 Probability, Games, and Gambling
	4.1 The Chevalier’s Dice Problem
		4.1.1 Exercise
		4.1.2 Reading and Links
	4.2 The Pascal–Fermat “Problem of Points”
		4.2.1 Appendix
		4.2.2 Exercise
		4.2.3 Reading and Links
	4.3 The Newton–Pepys Problem
		4.3.1 Exercise
		4.3.2 Reading and Links
	4.4 Staking to Reach a Target Sum
		4.4.1 Exercise
		4.4.2 Reading and Links
	4.5 The Favourite-Longshot Bias
		4.5.1 Appendix
		4.5.2 Exercise
		4.5.3 Reading and Links
	4.6 The Poisson Distribution
		4.6.1 Exercise
		4.6.2 Reading and Links
	4.7 Card Counting
		4.7.1 Exercise
		4.7.2 References and Links
	4.8 Can the Martingale Betting System Guarantee a Profit?
		4.8.1 Appendix
		4.8.2 Exercise
		4.8.3 Reading and Links
	4.9 How Much Should We Bet When We Have the Edge?
		4.9.1 Exercise
		4.9.2 Reading and Links
	4.10 The Expected Value Paradox
		4.10.1 Exercise
		4.10.2 Reading and Links
	4.11 Options, Spreads, and Wagers
		4.11.1 Appendix
		4.11.2 Exercise
			A. Buy Call Option
			B. Buy Put Option
			C. Sell Call Option
			D. Sell Put Option
			Summary Puzzle
		4.11.3 Reading and Links
Chapter 5 Probability, Truth, and Reason
	5.1 Does Seeing a Blue Tennis Shoe Increase the Likelihood That All Flamingos Are Pink?
		5.1.1 Exercise
		5.1.2 Reading and Links
	5.2 The Simulated World Question
		5.2.1 Exercise
		5.2.2 Reading and Links
	5.3 Quantum World Thought Experiments
		5.3.1 Exercise
		5.3.2 Reading and Links
	5.4 The Fine-Tuned Universe Puzzle
		5.4.1 Exercise
		5.4.2 Reading and Links
	5.5 Occam’s Razor
		5.5.1 Exercise
		5.5.2 Reading and Links
Chapter 6 Anomalies of Choice and Reason
	6.1 Efficiency and Inefficiency of Markets
		6.1.1 Exercise
		6.1.2 Reading and Links
	6.2 Curious and Classic Market Anomalies
		6.2.1 Exercise
		6.2.2 Reading and Links
	6.3 Ketchup Anomalies, Financial Puzzles, and Prospect Theory
		6.3.1 Exercise
		6.3.2 Reading and Links
	6.4 The Wisdom of Crowds
		6.4.1 Exercise
		6.4.2 Reading and Links
	6.5 Superforecasting
		6.5.1 Exercise
		6.5.2 Reading and Links
	6.6 Anomalies of Taxation
		6.6.1 Exercise
		6.6.2 Reading and Links
Chapter 7 Game Theory, Probability, and Practice
	7.1 Game Theory: Nash Equilibrium
		7.1.1 Exercise
		7.1.2 Reading and Links
	7.2 Game Theory: Repeated Game Strategies
		7.2.1 Exercise
		7.2.2 Reading and Links
	7.3 Game Theory: Mixed Strategies
		7.3.1 Appendix
		7.3.2 Exercise
		7.3.3 Reading and Links
Chapter 8 Further Ideas and Exercises
	8.1 The Four Card Problem
		8.1.1 Exercise
		8.1.2 Reading and Links
	8.2 The Bell Boy Paradox
		8.2.1 Exercise
	8.3 Can a Number of Infinite Length Be Represented by a Line of Finite Length?
		8.3.1 Exercise
	8.4 Does the Sum of All Positive Numbers Really Add Up to a Negative Number?
		8.4.1 Reading and Links
	8.5 Zeno’s Paradox
		8.5.1 Exercise
		8.5.2 Reading and Links
	8.6 Cool Down Exercise
		8.6.1 Exercise
		8.6.2 Reading and Links
	Reading and References
Solutions to Exercises
Index