Probabilistic-Statistical Methods for Risk Assessment in Civil Aviation (Springer Aerospace Technology)

Preface
Contents
Abbreviations
1 Concept of Risk and Safety: Analysis of Aviation Safety Regulations
	1.1 Safety in the Context of National Safety Policy
	1.2 Comparative Estimation of Safety Situation in the Russian Federation and in the World
		1.2.1 Comparison of Safety Levels in the Russian Federation and in the USA
		1.2.2 Comparison of Safety Situation in the Russian Federation and in the Member States of the ICAO
	1.3 Analysis of National and International Regulations Requirements to the Flight Operations Safety Management Systems
		1.3.1 ICAO, IATA, and EASA Standards and Recommended Practices
		1.3.2 Standards, Regulations, and Guidances of Several States
	1.4 Description of the Current Situation in the National Safety Program and in the Flight Operations Safety Management System of the Russian Federation
	1.5 Safety Risk and Its Acceptable Level
		1.5.1 Analysis of Different Approaches to Risk Definition
		1.5.2 Application of Fuzzy Sets and “Soft Estimation”
		1.5.3 Concept of Acceptable Risk
	References
2 Analysis of Navigational and Meteorological Risks that Influence Civil Aviation Safety
	2.1 Classification of Emergency, Critical, and Failure Situations in Aviation Enterprise
	2.2 Analysis of Possible Unauthorized Actions on the Navigation System of Civil Aircraft
		2.2.1 Classification of Possible Radio-Electronic Attacks on the Navigation System of Civil Aircraft
		2.2.2 Possibility of Intentional Interference for the Purpose of the Total or Fragmentary Destruction of Navigation Information
		2.2.3 Energy Analysis of Intentional Interference Possibility in GPS and GLONASS
		2.2.4 System Vulnerability Analysis for Navigation Systems of Civil Aircraft
	2.3 Analysis of Meteorological Risks in Aviation Enterprise Operation
		2.3.1 Air Temperature
		2.3.2 Air Humidity
		2.3.3 Atmosphere Pressure
		2.3.4 Wind
		2.3.5 Wind Shifts
		2.3.6 Air Turbulence
		2.3.7 Clouded Sky and Limited Visibility
		2.3.8 Weather Minimums
		2.3.9 Visibility Range
		2.3.10 Aircraft Icing
		2.3.11 Glazed Frost and Ice-Covered Ground
		2.3.12 Thunderstorms, Squalls, Whirlwind, Rain Showers, Hail
	References
3 Risk Assessment Methods for the Aviation Enterprise
	3.1 Safety Risk Management in Aviation Enterprise as a Task of Situational Management
	3.2 Study of the Known Risk Assessment Method’s Applicability to the Aviation Industry
		3.2.1 Classification of General Risk Assessment Methods. Applicability Analysis for Qualitative and Combined Methods
		3.2.2 Applicability Analysis for Quantitative Risk Assessment Methods
		3.2.3 Limitations of ICAO Recommended a Conceptual Risk Assessment Model
		3.2.4 Review of Triple-Component Models for Safety Risk Management
	3.3 Estimation of the Flight Risk in Terms of Technocratic Conception
		3.3.1 Model of Damage Distribution for Different Flight Scenarios
		3.3.2 Vulnerability for Safety Concerns as an Important Aviation Enterprise Characteristic
	3.4 Structure and Principles of Safety Risk Management System Design in the Aviation Enterprise
		3.4.1 Mathematical Description of Safety Risk Management Process
		3.4.2 Estimation of Safety Risk Acceptability on the Level of Aviation Enterprise
		3.4.3 Prognosticating of Management Decision Efficiency
		3.4.4 General Principles of Safety Risk Management System Design in the Aviation Enterprise According to the Proposed Methodology
	References
4 Definition and Monitoring of Safety Performance Indicators
	4.1 Safety Performance Indicators as Criteria of Safety Risk Management Efficiency. Review of Safety Performance Indicators Applicable in Civil Aviation
	4.2 Analysis of Problematic Issues in the Definition and Application of Safety Statistical Indicators
	4.3 Method of Definition and Monitoring of the State Safety Performance Indicators
	4.4 Methods of the Conventional Safety Performance Indicators Calculation and Monitoring in the Aviation Enterprise
		4.4.1 Calculation of the Indicators According to ICAO Recommendations
		4.4.2 Monitoring of Conventional Safety Performance Indicators
	4.5 Methods of the New Safety Performance Indicators Calculation and Monitoring in the Aviation Enterprise
		4.5.1 The Rationale for Two Criteria of Safety Assessment. Monitoring of the Risk R Indicator “Risk Ratio for Deviations and Events” by the Method of the Cumulative Sum
		4.5.2 Method for Decision-Making Support Based on the Factor Analysis of the New Safety Indicators
	References
Annex 1: Implementation of the Program “Managerial Decisions Efficiency Estimation”
A.1 Introduction: Formulation of the Problem
A.2 The Solution to the Problem
A.2.1 Compilation of a List of Hazard Factors and Expert Assessment of their Impact
A.2.2 Drawing Up a List of Management Decisions
A.2.3 Assessment of Expected Effectiveness, Cost: “Level of Implementation” of Management Decisions
A.2.4 Performing Calculations
A.3 The Conclusion on the Results of Using the Program