Principles of Spread-Spectrum Communication Systems

Front Matter....Pages i-xii
Introduction....Pages 1-12
Front Matter....Pages 13-14
Role Playing: A Method to Forecast Decisions....Pages 15-30
Front Matter....Pages 31-32
Methods for Forecasting from Intentions Data....Pages 33-56
Front Matter....Pages 57-58
Improving Judgment in Forecasting....Pages 59-80
Improving Reliability of Judgmental Forecasts....Pages 81-106
Decomposition for Judgmental Forecasting and Estimation....Pages 107-123
Expert Opinions in Forecasting: The Role of the Delphi Technique....Pages 125-144
Front Matter....Pages 145-146
Forecasting with Conjoint Analysis....Pages 147-167
Front Matter....Pages 169-170
Judgmental Bootstrapping: Inferring Experts’ Rules for Forecasting....Pages 171-192
Front Matter....Pages 193-194
Forecasting Analogous Time Series....Pages 195-213
Front Matter....Pages 215-216
Extrapolation for Time-Series and Cross-Sectional Data....Pages 217-243
Neural Networks for Time-Series Forecasting....Pages 245-256
Front Matter....Pages 257-258
Rule-Based Forecasting: Using Judgment in Time-Series Extrapolation....Pages 259-282
Front Matter....Pages 283-283
Expert Systems for Forecasting....Pages 285-300
Front Matter....Pages 301-302
Econometric Forecasting....Pages 303-362
Front Matter....Pages 363-363
Selecting Forecasting Methods....Pages 365-386
Front Matter....Pages 387-388
Judgmental Time-Series Forecasting Using Domain Knowledge....Pages 389-403
Judgmental Adjustment of Statistical Forecasts....Pages 405-416
Combining Forecasts....Pages 417-439
Front Matter....Pages 441-441
Evaluating Forecasting Methods....Pages 443-472
Front Matter....Pages 473-473
Prediction Intervals for Time-Series Forecasting....Pages 475-494
Overconfidence in Judgmental Forecasting....Pages 495-515
Front Matter....Pages 517-517
Scenarios and Acceptance of Forecasts....Pages 519-540
Front Matter....Pages 541-541
Learning from Experience: Coping with Hindsight Bias and Ambiguity....Pages 543-554
Front Matter....Pages 555-556
Population Forecasting....Pages 557-575
Forecasting the Diffusion of Innovations: Implications for Time-Series Extrapolation....Pages 577-595
Econometric Models for Forecasting Market Share....Pages 597-611
Forecasting Trial Sales of New Consumer Packaged Goods....Pages 613-630
Front Matter....Pages 631-632
Diffusion of Forecasting Principles through Books....Pages 633-649
Diffusion of Forecasting Principles through Software....Pages 651-676
Front Matter....Pages 677-677
Standards and Practices for Forecasting....Pages 679-732
Forecasting Standards Checklist....Pages 733-738
Back Matter....Pages 739-849