Predictive Analytics: The Power to Predict Who Will Click, Buy, Lie, or Die

Predictive Analytics: The Power to Predict Who Will Click, Buy, Lie, or Die......Page 7
Copyright......Page 8
Contents......Page 11
Foreword......Page 15
Preface......Page 17
Introduction: The Prediction Effect......Page 21
Introducing . . . the Clairvoyant Computer......Page 22
"Feed Me!"—Food for Thought for the Machine......Page 23
I Knew You Were Going to Do That......Page 24
The Limits and Potential of Prediction......Page 29
The Field of Dreams......Page 31
The New Super Geek: Data Scientists......Page 33
The Art of Learning......Page 34
Chapter 1: Liftoff! Prediction Takes Action......Page 37
Going Live......Page 38
A Faulty Oracle Everyone Loves......Page 40
A Silent Revolution Worth a Million......Page 41
The Perils of Personalization......Page 42
In Flight......Page 44
Elementary, My Dear: The Power of Observation......Page 45
To Act Is to Decide......Page 48
A Perilous Launch......Page 49
Houston, We Have a Problem......Page 50
The Little Model That Could......Page 52
Houston, We Have Liftoff......Page 53
A Passionate Scientist......Page 54
Launching Prediction into Inner Space......Page 55
Chapter 2: With Power Comes Responsibility: Hewlett-Packard, Target, and the Police Deduce Your Secrets......Page 57
The Prediction of Target and the Target of Prediction......Page 58
A Pregnant Pause......Page 59
Thrust into the Limelight......Page 60
You Can't Imprison Something That Can Teleport......Page 62
The Battle over Data......Page 63
HP Learns about Itself......Page 65
Flight Risk: I Quit!......Page 67
Insights: The Factors behind Quitting......Page 68
Delivering Dynamite......Page 69
Don't Quit While You're Ahead......Page 70
Predicting Crime to Stop It Before It Happens......Page 71
The Data of Crime and the Crime of Data......Page 79
Machine Risk without Measure......Page 80
The Cyclicity of Prejudice......Page 82
Good Prediction, Bad Prediction......Page 83
The Source of Power......Page 85
The Data of Feelings and the Feelings of Data......Page 87
Predicting the Mood of Blog Posts......Page 89
Visualizing a Moody World......Page 91
Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is......Page 92
Inspiration and Perspiration......Page 93
Sifting Through the Data Dump......Page 94
The Instrumentation of Everything We Do......Page 95
Batten Down the Hatches: T.M.I.......Page 97
The Big Bad Wolf......Page 98
The End of the Rainbow......Page 99
Far Out, Bizarre, and Surprising Insights......Page 100
Correlation Does Not Imply Causation......Page 108
The Cause and Effect of Emotions......Page 113
A Picture Is Worth a Thousand Diamonds......Page 114
Validating Feelings and Feeling Validated......Page 117
Serendipity and Innovation......Page 118
Investment Advice from the Blogosphere......Page 119
Money Makes the World Go 'Round......Page 120
Putting It All Together......Page 121
Boy Meets Bank......Page 123
Bank Faces Risk......Page 124
Prediction Battles Risk......Page 125
Risky Business......Page 126
Building the Learning Machine......Page 128
Learning from Bad Experiences......Page 130
How Machine Learning Works......Page 131
Decision Trees Grow on You......Page 133
Computer, Program Thyself......Page 135
Learn Baby Learn......Page 136
Bigger Is Better......Page 137
Overlearning: Assuming Too Much......Page 139
The Conundrum of Induction......Page 141
The Art and Science of Machine Learning......Page 142
Feeling Validated: Test Data......Page 144
Carving Out a Work of Art......Page 146
Putting Decision Trees to Work for Chase......Page 149
The Recession—Why Microscopes Can't Detect Asteroid Collisions......Page 150
After Math......Page 151
Casual Rocket Scientists......Page 153
Dark Horses......Page 154
Mindsourced: Wealth in Diversity......Page 155
Crowdsourcing Gone Wild......Page 156
Your Adversary Is Your Amigo......Page 158
Meta-Learning......Page 159
A Big Fish at the Big Finish......Page 161
Collective Intelligence......Page 162
The Wisdom of Crowds . . . of Models......Page 164
A Bag of Models......Page 165
The Generalization Paradox: More Is Less......Page 168
The Sky's the Limit......Page 169
Chapter 6: Watson and the Jeopardy! Challenge......Page 171
Our Mother Tongue's Trials and Tribulations......Page 173
Once You Understand the Question, Answer It......Page 175
The Ultimate Knowledge Source......Page 176
Artificial Impossibility......Page 178
Learning to Answer Questions......Page 180
Walk Like a Man, Talk Like a Man......Page 182
A Better Mousetrap......Page 183
The Answering Machine......Page 184
Moneyballing Jeopardy!......Page 185
Amassing Evidence for an Answer......Page 186
Elementary, My Dear Watson......Page 188
Mounting Evidence......Page 191
Weighing Evidence with Ensemble Models......Page 193
Machine Learning Achieves the Potential of Language Processing......Page 194
Confidence without Overconfidence......Page 196
The Need for Speed......Page 198
Double Jeopardy!—Would Watson Win?......Page 199
Jeopardy! Jitters......Page 201
For the Win......Page 202
After Match: Honor, Accolades, and Awe......Page 203
Iambic IBM AI......Page 204
Predict the Right Thing......Page 205
Chapter 7: Persuasion by the Numbers: How Telenor, U.S. Bank, and the Obama Campaign Engineered Influence......Page 207
Churn Baby Churn......Page 208
Sleeping Dogs......Page 209
A New Thing to Predict......Page 210
Eye Can't See It......Page 212
Perceiving Persuasion......Page 213
Persuasive Choices......Page 214
The Quantum Human......Page 216
Predicting Influence with Uplift Modeling......Page 220
Banking on Influence......Page 221
Predicting the Wrong Thing......Page 222
Response Uplift Modeling......Page 223
The Mechanics of Uplift Modeling......Page 224
How Uplift Modeling Works......Page 226
Influence Across Industries......Page 228
Immobilizing Mobile Customers......Page 231
Afterword: Ten Predictions for the First Hour of 2020......Page 238
Tomorrow's Just a Day Away......Page 239
The Future of Prediction......Page 240
Appendix A: Five Effects of Prediction......Page 241
Appendix B: Twenty-One Applications of Predictive Analytics......Page 242
Appendix C: Prediction People—Cast of "Characters"......Page 245
Introduction......Page 248
Chapter 1......Page 249
Chapter 2......Page 250
Chapter 3......Page 257
Chapter 4......Page 267
Chapter 5......Page 271
Chapter 6......Page 277
Chapter 7......Page 281
Central Tables......Page 285
Acknowledgments......Page 310
About the Author......Page 312
Index......Page 313
147 Examples of Predictive Analytics: A Cross-Industry Compendium......Page 323