Prediction in Geomorphology

Prediction in Geomorphology......Page 3
Copyright
......Page 4
CONTENTS......Page 5
PREFACE......Page 7
INTRODUCTION......Page 8
Modeling Versus Prediction......Page 9
Observability......Page 10
WHAT AND WHY DO WE MODEL?......Page 11
Physical Basis of Models......Page 12
Upscaling......Page 13
Testing Geomorphic Models and Predictions......Page 14
REFERENCES......Page 16
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 17
2. PREDICTION IN AN ANTHROPIC WORLD......Page 18
4.1 The Susceptible Layer......Page 19
4.2.5 Indirect disturbance.......Page 20
5.1. The Silurian  Geomorphologist......Page 21
7. THE ANTHROPIC FORCE......Page 22
8.2 Roads and Low-Order Streams......Page 23
9.1 Intention, Design and Feedback......Page 24
9.3 Landscape Design and Alternative Futures......Page 25
10. CONCLUSION......Page 26
REFERENCES......Page 27
INTRODUCTION......Page 29
The Rise and Fall of a Debris Flow Warning System......Page 30
Forecasting Lahar Inundation in Volcano Crisis Mode......Page 31
Application of the Shallow Landslide Model SHALSTAB......Page 32
Forest Management in Oregon: The CLAMS Experience......Page 33
Sediment Transport Modeling for the Menomonee RiverWatershed, Wisconsin......Page 34
Success of the Model/Manager Interactions......Page 35
ELEMENTS OF MODEL/MANAGERINTERACTION......Page 36
Developing Common Objectives......Page 37
Communication, Education, Transparency......Page 38
Alternatives to Prediction......Page 39
CONCLUSIONS......Page 40
REFERENCES......Page 41
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 43
3.1 Contrasting Views and Motivations......Page 44
3.2 Contrasting Modeling Approaches......Page 45
4.1 Capabilities......Page 46
4.2 Limitations......Page 47
5. CONSIDERATIONS FOR MODEL CONSTRUCTION......Page 48
6.1 Expectations......Page 49
7. CONCLUSION......Page 50
REFERENCES......Page 51
INTRODUCTION......Page 53
Conceptual Models......Page 54
Physical Models......Page 55
Analytical Models......Page 56
Numerical Models......Page 57
PREDICTION......Page 61
REFERENCES......Page 63
INTRODUCTION......Page 64
1. BEHIND EVERY GOOD MODEL THERE IS A SOLUTION TO PARTIAL DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS......Page 65
2. A MODEL IS VERIFIED WHEN IT PREDICTS OBSERVED FEATURES OF LANDSCAPES......Page 68
3. THE FUNCTION OF A MODEL IS TO MAKE QUANTITATIVE PREDICTIONS FOR COMPARISON WITH NATURE......Page 69
4. A REJECTED MODEL IS A FAILED EXPERIMENT......Page 71
5. COMPLEX MODELS MUST YIELDCOMPLEX RESULTS......Page 72
6. COMPLEX MATHEMATICAL MODELS RESULTS SHOULD AGREE WITH GUIDING PRINCIPLES OF BEHAVIOR......Page 75
CONCLUSIONS......Page 77
REFERENCES......Page 78
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 81
2.1. Phenomenological Versus Chronological Prediction......Page 82
2.2. Testing Predictions with Data......Page 83
2.3. Hierarchy of Data for Model Tests......Page 84
2 A. Hierarchy of Parameter Usage......Page 85
3.2. Adherence to Classical Conservation Laws......Page 86
4. AN EXAMPLE: LANDSLIDE RUNOUT......Page 87
4.2. The Adjustable Resistance Model......Page 88
4.5. The Many-Body Conservation-Law Model......Page 89
REFERENCES......Page 90
GENERIC PRINCIPLES......Page 93
THE SIMPLEST MODELS......Page 94
PROCESS MODELS......Page 95
WASH TRANSPORT......Page 97
UPSCALING FOR SURFACE ROUGHNESS......Page 98
CURRENT LIMITS TO PREDICTIVE MODELLING......Page 99
REFERENCES......Page 100
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 101
2.3 What Controls Drainage Density?......Page 103
2.4 What Controls Valley Longitudinal Profiles?......Page 104
2.5 What Morphologic Properties can be Used to Test Landscape Evolution Models?......Page 105
3.3 Statistical Realism......Page 107
4.1 Conservation of Mass Equation and GeomorphicTransport Laws......Page 108
4.2.1 Transport of soil by slope-dependent processes.......Page 111
4.2.2 Non-linear mass transport.......Page 113
4.2.3 Soil production.......Page 114
4.2.4 Landslide transport.......Page 116
4.2.5 Horton overland flow erosion.......Page 117
4.2.6.1 Alluvial bed incision.......Page 118
4.2.6.2 Bedrock incision by fluvial processes.......Page 119
4.2.7 Glacial erosion.......Page 121
5.1.  Hypothetical Landscapes......Page 122
5.2 Real Landscapes......Page 123
7. CONCLUSIONS......Page 125
REFERENCES......Page 126
INTRODUCTION......Page 131
PROPERTIES OF NONLINEAR, DISSIPATIVE SYSTEMS......Page 132
Emergence of Order Through Self-Organization......Page 133
Scale Separation: Intrinsic Time Scale......Page 134
HIERARCHICAL, ABSTRACTED MODELING......Page 136
Reductionism......Page 139
Physical Insight......Page 141
Bedforms......Page 142
Sorted Patterned Ground......Page 143
Hillslopes......Page 144
DISCUSSION......Page 145
REFERENCES......Page 146
1.1. Simulation Versus Exploration......Page 149
1.2 Scales of Processes Modeled......Page 150
1.3. Strictly Equation-Based versus. Rules......Page 152
2.1. Modeling Hydrodynamics and Morphodynamics in the Swash Zone......Page 153
2.2. Modeling Stream Braiding......Page 154
3. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN COMPLEX-SYSTEMS RESEARCH AND EXPLORATORY MODELS......Page 157
4.1. Results Guaranteed by Ad Hoc Interactions?......Page 158
5. MODEL TESTING......Page 159
5.2. Robust Predictions......Page 160
6.1. Analytical and Numerical Models......Page 161
REFERENCES......Page 162
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 164
2. BASIS OF STRATEGY......Page 167
3. OBSERVATIONS FROM HAGEN-POISEUILLE FLOW......Page 168
4. THE EXAMPLE OF HILLSLOPE AND SOIL COEVOLUTION......Page 170
5. CONCLUSION......Page 173
REFERENCES......Page 175
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 177
3. A METRIC FOR LANDSCAPE COMPARISONS......Page 179
4.2. What are "Similar" Landscapes?......Page 182
4.4. Type III Predictions: Comparison of Sample and Model Landscapes......Page 185
4.5. Testing Constraints and Test Protocols......Page 186
REFERENCES......Page 187
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 189
1.1. Area-Slope Relationship......Page 190
1.3. Cumulative Area Distribution......Page 191
2.1. Study Site......Page 192
2.2.2 Random drainage pattern.......Page 194
3. RESULTS......Page 195
3.2. Hypsometric Curve......Page 196
3.4. Cumulative Area Distribution......Page 197
3.5. Visual Comparison......Page 198
4. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION......Page 199
REFERENCES......Page 200
INTRODUCTION......Page 203
EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN AND RUN CONDITIONS......Page 205
MEASUREMENT METHODOLOGY......Page 206
OBSERVATIONS AND MEASUREMENTS......Page 207
TEMPORAL MEASURES OF DYNAMISM......Page 208
DISCUSSION......Page 209
CONCLUSIONS......Page 210
REFERENCES......Page 211
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 213
2.1 The Downstream Fining Case......Page 216
2.2 The Long-term Landscape Evolution Case......Page 220
3. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS......Page 223
REFERENCES......Page 226
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 229
2.1 The Downstream Fining Case......Page 232
2.2 The Long-term Landscape Evolution Case......Page 236
3. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS......Page 239
REFERENCES......Page 242