Predictability and Nonlinear Modelling in Natural Sciences and Economics

Front Matter....Pages i-ix
Introduction....Pages 1-5
Karl Popper and the Accountability of Scientific Models....Pages 6-10
Evaluation of Forecasts....Pages 11-28
The Liouville Equation and Prediction of Forecast Skill....Pages 29-44
An Improved Formula to Describe Error Growth in Meteorological Models....Pages 45-56
Searching for Periodic Motions in Long-Time Series....Pages 57-64
Comparison Study of the Response of the Climate System to Major Volcanic Eruptions and El Niño Events....Pages 65-85
Detection of a Perturbed Equator-Pole Temperature Gradient in a Spectral Model of the Atmospheric Circulation....Pages 86-94
A Simple Two-Dimensional Climate Model with Ocean and Atmosphere Coupling....Pages 95-112
Climate Modelling at Different Scales of Space....Pages 113-126
Simulation of Effects of Climatic Change on Cauliflower Production....Pages 127-137
Validation of Large Scale Process-Oriented Models for Managing Natural Resource Populations: A Case Study....Pages 138-148
Uncertainty of Predictions in Supervised Pest Control in Winter Wheat: Its Price and Causes....Pages 149-156
The Implications and Importance of Non-Linear Responses in Modelling the Growth and Development of Wheat....Pages 157-171
Growth Curve Analysis of Sedentary Plant Parasitic Nematodes in Relation to Plant Resitance and Tolerance....Pages 172-183
Using Chaos to Understand Biological Dynamics....Pages 184-203
Qualitative Analysis of Unpredictability: A Case Study from Childhood Epidemics....Pages 204-215
Control and Prediction in Seasonally Driven Population Models....Pages 216-227
Simple Theoretical Models and Population Predictions....Pages 228-231
Individual Based Population Modelling....Pages 232-247
Ecological Systems are Not Dynamic Systems: Some Consequences of Individual Variability....Pages 248-259
Spatio-Temporal Organization Mediated by a Hierarchy in Time Scales in Ensembles of Predator-Prey Pairs....Pages 260-273
Continental Expansion of Plant Disease: A Survey of Some Recent Results....Pages 274-281
Modeling of Fish Behavior....Pages 282-293
Understanding Uncertain Environmental Systems....Pages 294-311
System Identification by Approximate Realization....Pages 312-321
Sensitivity Analysis Versus Uncertainty Analysis: When to Use What?....Pages 322-333
Monte Carlo Estimation of Uncertainty Contributions from Several Independent Multivariate Sources....Pages 334-343
Assessing Sensitivities and Uncertainties in Models: A Critical Evaluation....Pages 344-361
UNCSAM: A Software Tool for Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Mathematical Models....Pages 362-376
Set-Membership Identification of Non-Linear Conceptual Models....Pages 377-388
Parameter Sensitivity and the Quality of Model Predictions....Pages 389-397
Towards a Metrics for Simulation Model Validation....Pages 398-410
Use of a Fourier Decomposition Technique in Aquatic Ecosystems Modelling....Pages 411-421
Multiobjective Inverse Problems with Ecological and Economical Motivations....Pages 422-431
An Expert-Opinion Approach to the Prediction Problem in Complex Systems....Pages 432-438
Critical Loads and a Dynamic Assessment of Ecosystem Recovery....Pages 439-446
Uncertainty Analysis on Critical Loads for Forest Soils in Finland....Pages 447-459
Monte-Carlo Simulations in Ecological Risk Assessment....Pages 460-470
Sensitivity Analysis of a Model for Pesticide Leaching and Accumulation....Pages 471-484
Bayesian Uncertainty Analysis in Water Quality Modelling....Pages 485-494
Modelling Dynamics of Air Pollution Dispersion in Mesoscale....Pages 495-504
Uncertainty Factors Analysis in Linear Water Quality Models....Pages 505-515
Uncertainty Analysis and Risk Assessment Combined: Application to a Bioaccumulation Model....Pages 516-526
Diagnosis of Model Applicability by Identification of Incompatible Data Sets Illustrated on a Pharmacokinetic Model for Dioxins in Mammals....Pages 527-540
Regional Calibration of a Steady-State Model to Assess Critical Acid Loads....Pages 541-553
Uncertainty Analysis for the Computation of Greenhouse Gas Concentrations in IMAGE....Pages 554-567
Forecast Uncertainty in Economics....Pages 568-580
Some Aspects of Nonlinear Discrete-Time Descriptor Systems in Economics....Pages 581-590
Quasi-Periodic and Strange, Chaotic Attractors in Hick’s Nonlinear Trade Cycle Model....Pages 591-598
Monte Carlo Experimentation for Large Scale Forward-Looking Economic Models....Pages 599-608
Erratic Dynamics in a Restricted Tatonnement Process with Two and Three Goods....Pages 609-620
Chaotic Dynamics in a Two-Dimensional Overlapping Generation Model: A Numerical Investigation....Pages 621-632
Nonlinearity and Forecasting Aspects of Periodically Integrated Autoregressions....Pages 633-637
Classical and Modified Rescaled Range Analysis: Some Evidence....Pages 638-647
Back Matter....Pages 648-653