Poverty and Social Impact Analysis of Reforms: Lessons and Examples from Implementiion (v. 3)

Contents......Page 7
Foreword......Page 17
List of Contributors......Page 19
1 Lessons from the Implementation of Poverty and Social Impact Analysis of Reforms......Page 29
2 Nicaragua: The Impact of the Fiscal Equity Law Reform......Page 57
3 Burkina Faso: A Macroeconomic Approach to Analyze Cotton Sector Reform......Page 95
4 Mozambique: School Fees and Primary School Enrollment and Retention......Page 121
5 Sri Lanka: Welfare Reform......Page 177
6 Europe and Central Asia: Power Sector Reform......Page 241
7 Rwanda: Electricity Tariff Reform......Page 263
8 Ghana: Electricity Tariff Reform......Page 285
9 Albania: Decentralization and Water Sector Privatization......Page 321
10 Romania: Mining Sector Reform......Page 367
11 Ghana: Evaluating the Fiscal and Social Costs of Increases in Domestic Fuel Prices......Page 415
12 Malawi: Agricultural Development and Marketing Corporation Reform......Page 443
13 Tajikistan: Cotton Farmland Privatization......Page 481
14 Tanzania: Crop Boards Reform......Page 519
4.7 Average Household Expenditure on School Fees......Page 142
9.1 Primary Data Collection Methodology......Page 329
9.2 Gaining Access to Data and Information Sources through In-Country Collaboration......Page 331
9.3 Summary of Key Findings for Utilities under Public and Private Management......Page 333
9.4 Recommendations for Reform Adjustments......Page 334
13.1 Resolving Cotton Farm Debts in Privatization......Page 510
14.1 Data Collection Methods......Page 525
2.1 Gini Coefficient: Equivalent Household Income Distribution, 1998–2001......Page 59
2.2 Poverty Rate Index: Percent of Population Living on Less than US$2 per Day, late 1990s......Page 60
2.3 Tax Revenue as Share of GDP and per Capita GDP (Atlas Method), 1997–2000 Average......Page 64
2.4 Normalized Tax Pressure for Value Added Tax (by quintile)......Page 74
2.5 Normalized Tax Pressure for Excise Taxes (by quintile)......Page 76
2.6 Normalized Tax Pressure for Corporate Income Tax (by quintile)......Page 78
2.7 Normalized Tax Pressure for Corporate Income Tax (by quintile)......Page 79
2.8 Normalized Tax Pressure for the Overall Tax Reform (by quintile)......Page 82
3.1 Economic Policies and Poverty Reduction......Page 109
3.2 Impact of a Permanent 20 percent Decline in Cotton Prices in 2004......Page 112
3.3 Impact of a Permanent 20 percent Decline in Cotton Prices and Volumes in 2004......Page 113
3.4 Impact of a 20 percent Increase in Primary Sector Output in 2004......Page 115
3.5 Increased Primary Sector Growth Contribution in 2004......Page 116
4.1 Contextual Factors and Demand-Side and Supply-Side Constraints......Page 130
4.2 Typology of Fees......Page 131
5.1 Poverty in Provinces, Sri Lanka......Page 179
5.2 Incidence of Benefits by Consumption Deciles......Page 199
5A.2 Comparison of Score Distribution......Page 231
5A.3 Coverage of Samurdhi and PMTF in Pilot Areas......Page 232
6.1 Household Electricity Consumption, Tbilisi......Page 249
7.1 Connection versus Consumption Subsidies in Rwanda......Page 279
8.3 Cross-Country Comparison of Electricity Tariffs......Page 294
8.2 Stakeholders in the Tariff-Setting Process......Page 296
8.3 Interests and Influence of Key Stakeholders in Tariff Reform......Page 297
8.4 Use of Main Fuel for Lighting in Different Income Groups......Page 300
8.5 Regional Share of SHEP Projects......Page 301
8.6 Location and Poverty Status of Electricity Users, 1998/9......Page 302
8.7 Continuum of Strategies for Coping with Higher Tariffs......Page 304
8.6 Disconnection and Reconnection Cost......Page 307
8.9 Total ECG Residential Sales, 2002–3......Page 308
9.1 Poverty Levels per Site (by city)......Page 341
9.2 Consumer Satisfaction with Tariff for the Type of Service Received (by city)......Page 342
9.3 Household Access to Water Supply Networks and Sewage Networks (by city)......Page 345
9.4 Presence of Illegal Connections (by city)......Page 347
9-A.1 Institutional Organization of the Water Sector in Albania......Page 362
9-A.2 Municipal Water and Wastewater Project— Institutional Organization......Page 363
10.1 Mining Regions in Romania......Page 370
10.2 Regional Location of the Six Selected Towns......Page 372
10.3 Gender-Based Trends in Employment in the Mining Sector......Page 382
10.4 Gender Trends in Mining Compared with National Unemployment Data......Page 383
10.5 Reemployment Probability......Page 391
10.6 Real Transfers to the Mining Sector, 2004......Page 395
10.8 Gross Salaries: Actual (2003) and Projected (2004–10)......Page 396
10.7 Output, Wages, and Output-to-Salary Ratio, 2003......Page 397
10.10 Relationship between Capital and Labor Expenses, 2003–6 average......Page 398
10.11 Size of Deficit and State Transfers, 2003–6 average......Page 399
10.13 Projected Development in State Transfers, 2003–6......Page 401
10.14 Projected Development in State Transfers per Worker, 2003–6......Page 402
12.1 ADMARC Market Locations and Main Road Network, 2002......Page 445
12.1 ADMARC Participation in the Maize Markets, 1995–2001......Page 447
12.3 ADMARC Market Locations and Mean Distance to Primary and Secondary Roads......Page 454
13.1 Seed Cotton Yields and Area Cultivated, 1990–2003......Page 484
13.2 Area Under Cultivation, by Province, 1997–2003......Page 487
13.3 Distribution of Cotton Proceeds within the Production and Marketing Chains......Page 505
2.1 Nicaragua’s Pre-Reform Tax Revenues (non-earmarked), 2001......Page 62
2.2 Nicaragua’s Post-Reform Projected Annual Tax Revenue Increase......Page 65
2.3 Kakwani Concentration and Progressivity Indexes for Value Added Tax......Page 73
2.5 Kakwani Concentration and Progressivity Indexes for Excise Taxes......Page 75
2.6 Kakwani Concentration and Progressivity Indexes for Corporate Income Tax......Page 77
2.8 Kakwani Concentration and Progressivity Indexes for the Overall Reform......Page 80
2.9 Consumption Distribution, Reform’s Tax Burden and Reform’s Normalized Tax Pressure......Page 81
2.10 Kakwani Concentration and Progressivity Indexes, Pre- and Post-Reform......Page 83
2.11 Distributional Impact of the Tax System, Pre- and Post-Reform......Page 84
3.1 Socioeconomic Groups and Poverty, 1998 and 2003......Page 104
3.2 Baseline Macroeconomic Framework and Poverty Response......Page 105
3.3 Inequality and Household Expenditure Trends......Page 107
3.4 Poverty Elasticity Decomposition......Page 108
3.5 Summary of Policy Experiments......Page 110
4.2 GER by Gender, 1997, 2000, and 2003......Page 122
4.3 Primary and Secondary Repetition, Dropout, and Completion, 1997 and 2003......Page 123
4.5 Upper Primary GER, Repetition, and Completion, by Province and Gender, 2003......Page 124
4.6 Annual Fees by Type and Educational Level (MZM)......Page 126
4.8 Annual Average Expenditure on School Fees per Child......Page 143
4.9 Impact of Demand-Side, Supply-Side, and Other Factors on Primary Enrollment and Completion Rates, Four Provinces......Page 149
4C.1 Probit Estimates for the Probability of the Child to Be Enrolled in EP1 and EP2......Page 168
4C.2 Fractional Logit Model......Page 169
4C.3 Probit Estimates for the Probability of the Child to Drop out of EP1 and EP2......Page 170
5.1 Poverty Headcounts for Sri Lanka......Page 178
5.2 Results from Different Models......Page 194
5.3 Undercoverage Rates......Page 196
5.4 Leakage Rates......Page 197
5.5 Incidence of Benefits by per Capita Consumption Deciles......Page 198
5.6 Incidence of Payments......Page 202
5.7 Applying the Selected PMTF to the Pilot Sample: Program Coverage......Page 205
5.8 Coverage Rate for Likely Vulnerable Groups......Page 206
5.9 Undercoverage Rates among Vulnerable Groups......Page 207
5A.1 PMTF (Weight on Each Variable for the Selected Models)......Page 224
5A.2 Regression Results from OLS Estimations......Page 226
5A.4 Per Capita Benefits (1999 SL Rs/Month)......Page 228
5A.6 Coverage Rate of Pilot Areas in the North and East Compared with Rest of the Country......Page 229
5A.7 Results with Revised Eligibility Criteria for Small Households......Page 230
6.1 Aggregate Impact of Electricity Tariff Change......Page 250
6.2 Factors that Explain Differences in Consumption......Page 251
7.1 Electricity Access, Consumption, and Expenditure in Rwanda, 1999/2001......Page 271
7.2 Distributional Characteristics of Alternative Tariff Structures......Page 275
7.3 Distributional Characteristics of Alternative Tariff Structures in Urban Areas......Page 277
7.4 Distributional Characteristics of the Proposed IUBT......Page 278
8.1 The History of Tariff Reform in Ghana......Page 288
8.2 Residential Tariff Structure......Page 289
8.4 Ghana Regional Poverty Incidence, 1988/9......Page 299
8.5 Coping Responses to Price Increase......Page 305
8.7 ECG Consumption and Customer Trends during Tariff Increases......Page 310
8.8 NED Consumption and Customer Trends during Tariff Increases......Page 311
8.9 EGC Trends in Arrears......Page 312
9.1 Condition and Access to Water and Sewerage Infrastructure in Eight Target Cities......Page 326
9.2 Reason for Nonpayment of Water Bill (by poverty group)......Page 343
9.3 Presence of Illegal Connections (by poverty group)......Page 346
9.4 Network Connection and Water Supply......Page 349
10.1 Mining and Local Public Administration: Qualitative Profiles......Page 378
10.2 Impact of Mine Closure on Women......Page 384
10.3 Program Targeting: Gender Focus......Page 386
10.4 Welfare Impact of Mining Sector Downsizing across Stakeholders......Page 388
10.5 Impact Analysis of Social Mitigation Programs......Page 390
10.6 Budget Subsidies to the Mining Industry......Page 393
10.8 State Transfers in Relation to Budget Deficit and Total Revenue, 2003......Page 400
10A.1 Estimation Results: 2001 SIM Data......Page 411
10A.2 Reemployment Probability: Probit Model Estimation......Page 413
11.1 Actual and Formula Petroleum Product Prices and Subsidies......Page 427
11.2 Real Income Effects and Share of the Burden of Price Changes......Page 428
11.3 Indirect Price and Real Income Effects by Sector......Page 429
11.5 Revenue Effects from Subsidy Removal and Zero Kerosene Tax......Page 433
11.6 Benefit Incidence for Alternative Expenditure Programs......Page 435
12.2 ADMARC’s Financial Performance 1998/9 to 2002/3......Page 450
12.3 Household Distance to Nearest ADMARC Market (in IHS-1 sample)......Page 453
12.4 Results of Regressions to Assess the Impact of ADMARC on Household Welfare Using Data from the IHS-1......Page 456
12.5 Results of Regressions to Assess Impact of ADMARC on Household Welfare Using Data from the IHS-1 and CPS-4......Page 460
12.6 Location and Basic Infrastructure of Sites Selected for Qualitative Study......Page 463
13.1 Regional Distribution of the Population, the Poor, and the Extremely Poor, 2003......Page 483
13.2 Comparison of the Impacts of Individual and Collective Land Tenure......Page 491
13.3 Matrix of Identification of Stakeholder Groups, Their Interests, Importance, and Influence......Page 496
13.4 Additional Interest Cost Borne by Cotton Sector from Delays in Ginning......Page 499
13.5 Losses from Inefficiencies and Rent Seeking......Page 504
14.1 Delineation of Public/Private Functions......Page 535
14.2 Activities, Revenue Sources, and Accountability Measures under Proposed Reforms......Page 538
14.3 Options for the Reform of Tanzania’s Crop Boards......Page 542
4-A Research Design: Guiding Questions......Page 161
4-B Econometric Model......Page 164
4-C Multivariate Regressions......Page 167
5-A Expenditure Composition of Ministries of Samurdhi and Social Welfare......Page 223
5-B PMTF : Rationale and Evidence......Page 233
5-C Issues in Deriving PMTF for Sri Lanka Using SLIS Data......Page 236
9-A Organizational Maps of Albanian Water Sector Reform......Page 361
9-B Definitions of Qualitative Poverty Categories......Page 364
10-A Econometric Models and Estimated Results......Page 409
13-A Depiction of Debt Chain in Cotton Production in Tajikistan......Page 517