Paradoxes of Intelligence: Essays in Honor of Michael I. Handel

Book Cover......Page 1
Half-Title......Page 2
Title......Page 4
Copyright......Page 5
Dedication......Page 6
Contents......Page 7
Preface......Page 8
Acknowledgements......Page 11
Notes on Contributors......Page 13
Strategic Surprise as a Force Multiplier......Page 15
Surprise in Historical Perspective......Page 17
A. Methodological Dilemmas and Problems of Perception......Page 22
Indicators and Warnings......Page 33
Worst-case Analysis......Page 34
Preconceptions, Ethnocentrism, and Misperception......Page 35
B. The Politics of Intelligence......Page 38
Intelligence-Leadership Relations......Page 39
Intelligence Advisers and Leaders......Page 43
C. Organizational and Bureaucratic Explanations......Page 45
Military Patterns of Thought and Intelligence Analysis......Page 46
Organizational Parochialism, Compartmentalization and ExcessiveSecrecy......Page 47
The (Elusive) Quest for Effecting Organizational Reforms......Page 53
Multiple Advocacy90......Page 54
The Devil’s Advocate102......Page 56
Post Surprise Measures (PSM)105......Page 57
Complex Man-Machine Accidents108......Page 58
NOTES......Page 61
2 Politicization of Intelligence Costs and Benefits......Page 71
Types of Politicization and Intelligence-Policy Interaction......Page 72
Contrasting Functions and Thin Lines......Page 74
Conscious Politicization: The Vietnam Order of Battle Estimate......Page 76
Balanced Politicization? Team B and NIE 11–3/8......Page 79
Unconscious Politicization? The Gates Revolution and Reaction......Page 80
Navigating the Thin Lines......Page 82
NOTES......Page 86
3 Intelligence Failures: Forecasting and the Lessons of Epistemology......Page 91
Just How Bad Is It Out There?......Page 92
Who’s to Blame?......Page 94
Science or Pseudo-Science?......Page 96
The Problem of Induction and the Consequences for Analysis......Page 98
Alternatives to Induction......Page 101
Living With Uncertainty......Page 102
Policymaker Attitudes......Page 104
Conclusions......Page 106
NOTES......Page 108
4 Theory of Surprise......Page 111
War as Administration......Page 112
The Risk Paradox and Surprise......Page 115
The Failure of Surprise......Page 118
The Future of Surprise......Page 120
Conclusion......Page 122
NOTES......Page 123
5 ‘FORTITUDE’ in Context: The Evolution of British Military Deception in Two World Wars, 1914–1945......Page 126
NOTES......Page 166
6 Intelligence Failure and the Need for Cognitive Closure: The Case of Yom Kippur......Page 173
The Literature and its Deficiencies......Page 175
The Human Factor: Penetrating AMAN’s ‘Black Box’36......Page 179
Managerial and Organizational Style......Page 180
Beliefs About Professional Duties......Page 181
Denial of Inconvenient Information......Page 184
Summary......Page 186
The Human Factor: Explaining the Behavior of Zeira and Bandman......Page 187
NOTES......Page 190
7 Grant vs. Sherman: Paradoxes of Intelligence and Combat Leadership......Page 197
The Joint Visions......Page 198
What Does it Matter? Grant vs. Sherman......Page 202
Conclusion......Page 206
NOTES......Page 208
Index......Page 210