Open Economies: Structural Adjustment and Agriculture

Cover......Page 1
Frontmatter......Page 2
Contents......Page 10
List of figures......Page 15
List of tables......Page 16
Preface......Page 18
Acknowledgements......Page 19
List of conference participants......Page 21
1 Introduction......Page 24
2 Open economy analysis......Page 26
3 The small country assumption and trade reform......Page 28
4 Risk and adjustment......Page 31
5 Government's role......Page 33
6 Conclusion......Page 35
Part One - Open economy analysis......Page 36
1 Introduction......Page 38
2 The sequencing of structural reforms: a general welfare approach......Page 41
3 The sequencing of reform and the agricultural sector: basic results......Page 48
4 Extensions: intermediate inputs, investment, and alternative indexation......Page 56
5 Concluding remarks......Page 58
Discussion......Page 62
1 Introduction......Page 65
2 Background......Page 66
3 Model structure......Page 69
4 Efficiency and distributional impact of the FTA in agriculture......Page 73
5 Conclusions......Page 83
Discussion......Page 86
1 The issues......Page 89
2 The CFA Zone......Page 92
3 The framework......Page 93
4 The trade-offs: empirical application to the CFA Zone......Page 101
5 Concluding remarks......Page 106
1 Introduction......Page 109
2 An `island of price stability', but an overvalued currency......Page 110
3 The disregard of the rules of monetary adjustment......Page 111
4 Deflation versus devaluation......Page 112
5 Concluding remarks......Page 114
1 Introduction......Page 116
2 Disequilibrium and adjustment in Morocco......Page 117
3 A disaggregated simulation model applied to Morocco......Page 121
4 Simulation of the reforms included in the 1985-6 SAL......Page 126
5 Conclusions......Page 138
Discussion......Page 140
Part Two - The small country assumption and trade reform......Page 146
1 Introduction......Page 148
2 Exchange rate and incentive reforms and supply response......Page 149
3 Exchange rates and inflation......Page 152
4 Exchange rates and inflation: a framework for analysis......Page 153
5 The devaluation-inflation interaction and supply response......Page 162
1 Introduction......Page 168
3 Devaluation and inflation......Page 169
4 The parallel market economies......Page 170
6 Conclusion......Page 171
1 Introduction......Page 173
2 The model......Page 175
3 Simulation results......Page 179
4 Limitations and future directions......Page 189
5 Conclusions......Page 191
Discussion......Page 193
1 Introduction......Page 195
2 Conceptual issues......Page 197
3 Empirical estimates......Page 201
Appendix 1: The elasticities used for tree crops......Page 208
Appendix 2: RUNS model overview......Page 210
Discussion......Page 220
Part Three - Risk and adjustment......Page 224
1 Introduction......Page 226
2 Stabilisation by trade tools......Page 228
3 Public stabilisation through domestic markets......Page 231
4 Market tools for risk management......Page 232
5 Risk management in the grain sectors of Hungary and Poland......Page 235
6 Conclusions......Page 239
Discussion......Page 242
1 Stabilisation or hedging......Page 245
2 Producer behaviour under different pricing regimes......Page 248
3 A simulation model......Page 252
4 Simulation results......Page 258
5 Conclusion......Page 261
Discussion......Page 263
Part Four - Government's role......Page 266
1 Introduction......Page 268
2 Economic performance under adjustment lending......Page 269
3 Public investment and relative prices: an econometric analysis......Page 273
4 Conclusions......Page 283
Discussion......Page 286
1 Introduction......Page 290
2 The level of taxation......Page 292
3 The structure of taxation......Page 301
4 Concluding remarks......Page 302
Statistical appendix 1: Tax to GDP ratios in 1988 -- Africa and Asia......Page 305
Statistical appendix 2: Tax to GDP ratios in 1988 -- Europe, Latin America and Middle East/North Africa......Page 306
1 The general approach......Page 307
3 The econometrics......Page 308
5 Agricultural taxation and structural adjustment......Page 309
6 Concluding remarks......Page 310
13 - International dimensions of the political economy of distortionary price and trade policies......Page 311
1 A simple model of the political market for agricultural policy......Page 312
2 Opening the political market to international influences......Page 317
3 Implications for future policies and structural adjustments......Page 325
Discussion......Page 331
Index......Page 336