Oil 2019: Analysis and Forecasts to 2024

OIL MARKET REPORT 2019
	Foreword
	Acknowledgements
	Table of Contents
		List of figures
		List of tables
	Executive Summary
		The United States leads global supply growth
		The United States is also turning into a major player in the global oil trade
		While upstream investment increases again in 2019, more is needed
		Oil demand growth eases in the next five years, but still no peak in sight
		As gasoline slows, petrochemicals and jet fuel are stalwarts of demand growth
		The IMO regulations: Shippers and refiners prepare to comply
		Refiners face twin challenges: A capacity boom, and changes in crude and product quality
	1. Demand
		Highlights
		Global overview
			Macroeconomic environment and prices
			Continuous demand growth for petrochemicals
			IMO will temporarily boost fuel oil in the power sector
			Strong Asian demand for jet fuel makes it a key contributor to growth
		OECD demand
			OECD Americas
			OECD Europe
			OECD Asia Oceania
		Non-OECD demand
			Africa
			China
			China’s natural gas and electric vehicles
			Other Asia
			Non-OECD Europe
			Former Soviet Union
			Latin America
			Middle East
	2. Supply
		Highlights
		Global overview
			Upstream investment
		Non-OPEC oil supply
			United States sets new records, but needs higher price to maintain pace
				US LTO price sensitivities
				Permian prepares for higher output
				US Gulf Coast export capacity could reach 8 mb/d by 2024
				A Bakken takeaway crunch?
				Gulf of Mexico production gets boost from new start-ups
			Brazil rebound around the corner
			Tight oil developments boost Argentina
			Mexico shifts focus back to onshore and shallow water
			Guyana gears up for first oil
			Canada outlook deteriorates
			Norwegian giant fuels North Sea recovery
			Russia demonstrates its capability with record output
			Caspian production holds steady
			Asian output slumps further
			New producers gear up in non-OPEC Africa
			Qatar lifts Middle East
		OPEC crude oil capacity
			Iraq fuels OPEC growth
			US sanctions stymie Iran
			Political crisis clouds Venezuelan outlook
			Civil unrest threatens African growth
		Natural gas liquids
		Biofuel supply
			Key ethanol market developments
			Key biodiesel and HVO market developments
	3. Refining and Trade
		Highlights
		Global overview
			What is excess refining capacity?
		Refining outlook
			Atlantic Basin
				Americas
				Africa
				Europe
				Former Soviet Union
			East of Suez
				Middle East
				China
				Other Asia
			Crude and product quality developments
				Structural imbalances in light and middle distillates markets
		Crude and products trade
			The United States-Canada double act
			Barrel for barrel
			Crude trade developments
				Export flows
				West to East
				Import flows
				Will Asia ever have a working crude benchmark?
			Product trade developments
				Ethane/LPG: gas liquids lead oil products trade
				Gasoline/naphtha: petrochemicals drive naphtha demand, gasoline in the back seat
				Diesel/kerosene: IMO accelerates US exports, culls Asian surplus
				Fuel oil: a disappearing act?
	4. Special feature: IMO 2020, calm after the storm
		Highlights
		Global overview
		Bunker demand growth to slow
		Our 2020 fuel switching scenario
		VLSFO gathers pace during 2021-24
		Inland diesel demand growth slows
		Refining sector targets gasoil
			Refinery investments to increase
		Scrubbers boost fuel oil demand
			Scrubber installations peak in 2019-20, fall afterwards
		Compliance issues unlikely to last
		LNG makes small but growing contribution
	5. Tables
	6. Appendix