OECD Studies on Water Water and Climate Change Adaptation : Policies to Navigate Uncharted Waters.

Foreword
 Table of contents
 Preface
 Abbreviations
 Executive summary
 Chapter 1. A changing and uncertain future for freshwater
 Key messages
 Uncertainty and knowledge gaps
 Uncertainty related to scenarios, emissions trends, and models
 Coarse resolution/scale mismatch
 Low confidence for key climate parameters
 A focus on shifts in the mean
 Figure 1.1. Modes of climate change
 A widening range of possible futures
 Figure 1.2. Cascade of uncertainty
 A future for freshwater unlike the past
 Climate change as water change
 Changing precipitation patterns and increased variability. Shifts in runoff and river dischargeIncreasing frequency and intensity of extreme events
 Impacts on freshwater ecosystems
 Figure 1.3. Projected change in indicators of water resources drought across Europe by the 2070s
 Rising sea level
 Changes in glaciers, snow, ice and permafrost
 Increasing water temperature
 Groundwater
 Impacts on evapotranspiration and soil moisture
 Concluding remarks
 Notes
 References
 Chapter 2. A risk-based approach to adapting water systems to climate change
 Key messages
 Why risk? Rationale for a risk-based approach
 Thinking risk: A framework. Which water risks? Identifying water risks and risk driversFigure 2.1. A risk-based framework for water security
 Figure 2.2. Risk at the intersection of hazard, exposure and vulnerability
 \"\"Know\"\" the risk: Appraising water risks
 Decision making under uncertainty
 Box 2.1. Risk and uncertainty
 Box 2.2. Approaches to evaluating decision-making under uncertainty
 \"\"Target the risk\"\": Judging tolerability and acceptability
 Fish or farmers? Weighing risk-risk tradeoffs
 Figure 2.3. Illustration of a potential trade-off between fish and farmers. Figure 2.4. Risk protection frontier for allocating water between fish and farmers\"\"Manage\"\" the risk and enhance resilience
 Table 2.1. Possible adaptation strategies for water systems
 Box 2.3. Expected costs and benefits of adapting water systems to climate change
 Box 2.4. Policy guidelines to facilitate adaptation for water systems
 \"\"Know\"\", \"\"target\"\" and \"\"manage\"\" water risks: A role for governments
 Concluding remarks
 Notes
 References
 Chapter 3. Climate change adaptation for water systems in OECD countries
 Key messages. Figure 3.1. Generic building blocks for climate change adaptation for waterBuilding the evidence base to \"\"know\"\" the risk
 Trends, projections, primary concerns and vulnerabilities
 Table 3.1. Primary concerns in OECD countries and the EC
 Risk appraisal: Impact, vulnerability and risk assessments
 Box 3.1. The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA)
 Improving the evidence base and research capacity
 Box 3.2. Assessing vulnerability and adaptive capacity in Europe\'s river basins
 Box 3.3. Exploring the water balance in France in 2070 and testing adaptation strategies.