OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2002

""Foreword""
 ""Acknowledgement""
 ""Table of Contents""
 ""Acronyms and Abbreviations""
 ""The Outlook in Brief""
 ""Overview""
 ""Outlook at a glance � economic rebound will eventually boost markets""
 ""The macroeconomic context is weak but should improve""
 ""OECD agricultural policies affect output and trade""
 ""World production will continue to expand""
 ""Stronger world demand, particularly from developing countries""
 ""Growing OECD trade in agricultural products""
 ""Figure 1. OECD exports""
 ""World prices to recover gradually""
 ""Figure 2. Outlook for world prices to 2007"" ""Market and policy uncertainties cloud the Outlook picture""""Russia to remain a major importer""
 ""China �a wild card for the Outlook""
 ""Many policy challenges ahead""
 ""Economic and Policy Assumptions""
 ""Key economic assumptions""
 ""Key policy assumptions""
 ""Notes""
 ""A selection of future agricultural policy events""
 ""Review of economic assumptions""
 ""A synchronised global dowturn""
 ""Figure 3. GDP growth projections for selected OECD countries, China and Russia""
 ""So much depends now on US performance""
 ""But the Japanese economy remains in recession"" ""Europe unlikely to drive global recovery""""A quicker turnaround likely for some smaller OECD economies""
 ""Growth is slowing elsewhere, but remains robust in China and Russia""
 ""Table 1. Where population and income is projected to grow""
 ""Period of low inflation will continue""
 ""US dollar to remain generally strong""
 ""Figure 4. Nominal exchange rate projections""
 ""Box 1. Sensitivity analysis: effects of exchange rate changes""
 ""Table 2. 10% exchange rate shock: effects on world market prices""
 ""Table 3. 10% exchange rate shock: effects on net trade"" ""More challenging agricultural markets in the short term?""""Box 2. The effect of the economic downturn on agricultural markets""
 ""Figure 5. OECD GDP growth rate: comparison of OECD projections""
 ""Figure 6. Impact of economic downturn on world (average 2001-2002)""
 ""Review of the policy assumptions""
 ""Projections assume unchanged policy environment""
 ""US, EU and Japanese policies have major market impacts""
 ""Canadian and Mexican policies influenced by US and NAFTA""
 ""Australian and New Zealand farm programmes are more limited"" ""Multilateral and regional trade agreements continue to apply""""Many new and complex policy challenges""
 ""Agricultural support still high in many OECD countries""
 ""Generous US Farm bill proposals are a risk to reform""
 ""EU Agenda 2000 reforms due for review in 2002 and 2003""
 ""URAA has been influential in the agricultural reform process""
 ""Table 4. Average tariff in 2000 by in, out and non-quota products""
 ""The Doha Development Agenda is a wild card for the outlook""
 ""Conclusions""
 ""Box 3. The Farm Security and Rural Investment (FSRI) Act 2002-07""