OECD Employment Outlook

Tables of contents......Page 5
Rewarding Work......Page 9
Introduction......Page 13
I. Recent developments and prospects......Page 14
Table 1.2. Employment and labour force growth in OECD countries......Page 16
Table 1.3. Unemployment in OECD countries......Page 17
Table 1.4. Business sector labour costs in OECD countries......Page 18
II. The evolution of employment in the new OECD Member countries, 1989-1999......Page 15
Table 1.5. Employment, productivity and per capita output (GDP), 1998......Page 19
Chart 1.1. Evolution of output, population and employment, 1989-99
 Chart 1.1. Evolution of output, population and employment......Page 20
Chart 1.2. Working-age population by labour market status and......Page 23
Table 1.6. Composition of employment by gender and age, 1998......Page 25
Table 1.7. Composition of employment by selected characteristics, 1998......Page 26
Table 1.8. Sectoral composition of employment and its recent evolution......Page 27
Table 1.9. Occupational composition of employment by gender, 1998......Page 28
Notes......Page 29
Annex 1.A.  Methods Used to Track Labour Market Trends in the New OECD Member Countries......Page 30
Table 1.A.1. Sources used for Chart 1.1......Page 31
Bibliography......Page 32
Summary......Page 33
Main findings......Page 34
I. Setting the framework for analysis......Page 35
Box 1.  Defining functional labour markets......Page 36
Chart 2.1. Unemployment rates in regions of OECD countries, annual averages 1997......Page 38
Table 2.1. Indicators of regional unemployment rate disparities, 1997......Page 41
Table 2.2. Regional unemployment rates by gender, age and duration: coefficient of variation and.........Page 42
Table 2.3. Skill composition of the population by region: coefficient of variation and correlati.........Page 43
Table 2.4. Decomposition of the variance of unemployment rates across regions......Page 44
Table 2.5.  Regional non-employment rates: indicators of disparity and correlation with .........Page 46
Graph 2.2. Developments in regional unemployment disparities, Level 2 regions, 1985-1999......Page 47
Table 2.6. Correlation between recent and historical values of regional unemployment rates......Page 49
Table 2.7. Changes in regional unemployment rates, labour force participation rates and population......Page 50
Table 2.8. Changes in regional employment......Page 51
Table 2.9. Summary indicators of components of change in employment by region......Page 52
Table 2.11. Decomposition of the variance of average hourly earnings across regions......Page 53
Table 2.12. Internal migration in selected OECD countries: gross flows and net flows......Page 55
Graph 2.3. Incidence of internal migration by age in selected OECD countries, latest available year......Page 56
Graph 2.4. Proportion of employed commuting, Level 2 regions, 1992 and 1998......Page 57
Table 2.13. Correlation between net migration flows and unemployment by region......Page 58
Box 3.  Theoretical views and empirical evidence on the determinants of internal migration, wi.........Page 59
Box 4.  Theoretical views and empirical evidence relating to specialisation and diversity......Page 60
Table 2.14. Summary statistics for relative specialisation in the industry composition of region.........Page 61
Conclusions......Page 63
Notes......Page 65
Annex 2.A. The Territorial Units of Observation......Page 67
Table 2.A.1. Characteristics of the territorial units used for analysis......Page 68
Table 2.A.2. List of regions......Page 70
Annex 2.B. Data Sources Relating to Regional Populations and Labour Forces......Page 75
Annex 2.C. Data Sources for the Analyses of Developments in Regional Employment......Page 76
Annex 2.D. Sources and Definitions of Regional Earnings Data......Page 78
Bibliography......Page 79
Introduction......Page 81
Main findings......Page 82
I. Measuring service-sector employment......Page 83
Table 3.1. Taxonomy of service subsectors and activities: definitions and main characteristics......Page 85
II. Trends in the share of service employment, 1984-98......Page 84
Chart 3.1. Evolution of employment shares of the three main sectors......Page 86
Table 3.2. The service-sector employment share and the occupational mix of employment in 1998......Page 87
Chart 3.2. Evolution of the employment shares of the four services subsectors, 1984-1998......Page 89
Chart 3.3. Employment shares of the sixteen service activities in 1998......Page 90
Chart 3.4. Cross-country standard deviations of the service-sector share of total employment, 19.........Page 91
Table 3.3. Differences in the sectoral composition of employment......Page 92
Chart 3.5. Evolution of service employment share by gender......Page 93
Chart 3.6. Evolution of the employment share of the four service subsectors by gender, 1984-1998......Page 94
Table 3.4. Gender composition in service employment in 1998......Page 96
Table 3.5. Differences in the sectoral distribution of employment by gender, qualification level.........Page 97
Table 3.6. Skill composition of service employment in 1998......Page 98
Table 3.7. Age composition of service employment in 1998......Page 100
IV. Determinants of the share of service employment in total employment......Page 99
Table 3.8. Per capita GDP, the relative price of services and the size of the service sector, 1998......Page 101
Table 3.9. Panel regressions to explain the overall service share of employment......Page 102
Box 1.  Explanatory note for interpreting the regression coefficients......Page 104
Table 3.10. Panel regressions to explain the employment share of the service subsectors......Page 105
Table 3.11. Panel regressions to explain the employment share of selected service activities......Page 106
V. Does underdevelopment of service employment explain low employment rates?......Page 107
Chart 3.7. Employment to working-age population rations by sector......Page 108
Chart 3.8. Sectoral contribution to annualised employment growth, 1986-1998......Page 110
Box  2.  Measures used in the sectoral analysis of net employment growth......Page 111
Table 3.12. Shift-share analysis of employment growth, 1986-1998......Page 113
Chart 3.9. Shift-share analysis of employment growth, 1986-1998......Page 114
Conclusions......Page 112
Notes......Page 116
Table 3.A.1. Definition of sectors used in the empirical analysis......Page 118
Table 3.A.2. Approximate mapping using 2-digit sectors for the European Union......Page 119
Table 3.A.3. Overview of data on employment by sector......Page 120
Annex 3.B......Page 121
Annex 3.C......Page 123
Table 3.C.1. Evolution of the share of service employment......Page 124
Table 3.C.2. Sectoral contribution to annualised employment growth, 1986-1998......Page 127
Bibliography......Page 128
Introduction......Page 131
Main findings......Page 132
I. Theoretically expected effects from benefit eligibility conditions......Page 133
II. A brief survey of eligibility criteria......Page 134
III. An overview of sanction provisions and statistics......Page 136
Table 4.1.  Periods of benefit sanction following a voluntary quit and refusal of work or ALMP.........Page 137
Table 4.2. Incidence of unemployment benefit refusals and sanctions in thirteen countries......Page 138
IV. Can a reasonable index for the strictness of benefit eligibility criteria be constructed?......Page 140
V. Evidence for the impact of eligibility criteria: a brief survey......Page 141
Box 1.  Work search requirements in Maryland, United States......Page 143
Box 2.  An analysis of eligibility issues from Switzerland......Page 144
VI. Implementation issues......Page 145
Conclusions......Page 146
Notes......Page 147
Annex 4.A. Some International Differences in Eligibility Criteria for Unemployment Benefits......Page 150
Bibliography......Page 154
Introduction......Page 156
Main findings......Page 157
I. Changes in size and structure......Page 158
Table 5.1. Non-agricultural self-employment, 1973-1998......Page 159
Table 5.2. Annual average growth rates of self-employment and total civilian employment......Page 160
Chart 5.2. Changes in self-employment and in the proportion of the self-employed who are employers......Page 161
Table 5.3. Self-employment by gender: growth rate and share of self-employment......Page 162
Table 5.4. Proportion of employers in self-employment, 1983, 1990, 1997......Page 163
II. Flow analyses......Page 164
Indicators of franchising intensity......Page 165
Table 5.5. Flows into and out of self-employment......Page 167
III. Working conditions of the self- employed, job satisfaction and preferences......Page 168
Table 5.7. Stability of self-employment......Page 169
Chart 5.3. Flows between unemployment and self-employment, 1983-1997......Page 166
Table 5.8. Flows into and out of employer status......Page 170
Table 5.9. Working conditions of the self-employed: results of a logistic regression model......Page 171
Table 5.10. Job satisfaction of the self-employed, by hours and gender, European Union, 1995/96......Page 172
Table 5.11. Preferences for self-employment and dependent employment, European Union, 1998......Page 173
Chart 5.4. Self-employment rate and GDP per capita, 1979, 1990 and 1997......Page 174
V. Policy considerations......Page 175
Table 5.13. Summary of time-series regression analyses for the self-employment rate......Page 176
Table 5.14. Public support for unemployed persons starting enterprises in selected OECD countries......Page 179
Table 5.15. Self-employment assistance for the unemployed......Page 180
Table 5.16. Programmes to promote self-employment among youth in selected OECD countries......Page 185
Table 5.17. Programmes to promote self-employment among women in selected OECD countries......Page 187
Conclusions......Page 188
Notes......Page 190
Annex 5.A. Definitions and Data Sources......Page 192
Table 5.A.1. Classification of owner-managers of incorporated businesses (OMIBs) in labour force.........Page 193
Table 5.B.1. Variable specifications and sources......Page 195
Bibliography......Page 197
Sources and definitions......Page 201
Table A. Standardized unemployment rates in 25 OECD countries......Page 202
Table B. Employment/population ratios, activity rates and unemployment rates by sex for persons .........Page 203
Table C. Unemployment, labour force participation rates and employment/population ratios by age .........Page 206
Table D. Unemployment, labour force participation rates and employment/population ratios by educ.........Page 215
Table E. Incidence and composition of part-time employment, 1990-99......Page 218
Table F. Average annual hours actually worked per person in employment......Page 219
Table G. Incidence of long-term unemployment......Page 220
Table H. Public expenditure and participant inflows* in labour market programmes in OECD countries......Page 223
Index of Previous Issues of the Employment Outlook, 1983-1999......Page 231