OECD Employment Outlook 2019 the Future of Work

Foreword
Acknowledgements
Editorial: A transition agenda for a Future that Works for all
Executive summary
	Digitalisation, globalisation and ageing bring new opportunities but also risks widening disparities among workers
	The labour market outcomes of young people without tertiary education have worsened in most countries
	All workers, regardless of their employment status, should have access to an adequate set of employment protections
	Collective bargaining can be a complementary and flexible tool to shape the future of work
	Strengthening adult learning is crucial to help workers successfully navigate a changing labour market
	Social protection reforms must ensure that support remains accessible for disadvantaged groups
	It is time for a transition agenda for a future that works for all
1 Overview: The future of work is in our hands
	Should we brace for a jobless future?
	Is the end nigh for the standard employment relationship?
	Has the balance of power between bosses and workers tipped too far?
	A Future that Works for All – can we afford it?
2 The future of work: What do we know?
	Introduction
	2.1. An overview of the megatrends transforming labour markets
		2.1.1. New technologies are rapidly permeating the world of work
		2.1.2. The world has become an increasingly integrated place
		2.1.3. OECD countries are ageing
		2.1.4. The global population will increase and migration pressures are likely to grow
	2.2. Job quantity: The ongoing transformations are unlikely to result in fewer jobs
		2.2.1. In spite of the continuous transformation of the labour markets, employment has historically been growing
		2.2.2. Is this time different? The recent wave of anxiety regarding automation
		2.2.3. The latest OECD results show that around 14% of jobs are at risk of complete automation but many more will be affected by deep changes
		2.2.4. The mere existence of a new technology does not imply that it will become pervasive and replace humans at work
		2.2.5. While the number of employed workers may not have fallen, an increasing number of them are under-employed
	2.3. Job quality: A future of better opportunities or increased risks for workers?
		2.3.1. Wages have been stagnating for a large share of the population over the past decade
		2.3.2. Jobs have become less stable
		2.3.3. The impacts of globalisation on job quality are mixed
		2.3.4. Technological progress has historically helped improve working conditions
		2.3.5. But greater use of technology can also have a negative impact on job quality in certain occupations
		2.3.6. Platform work: greater flexibility vs digital Taylorism
		2.3.7. Work through platforms is still a limited phenomenon
		2.3.8. More generally, non-standard work constitutes an important policy concern
		2.3.9. Temporary employment has risen in one half of OECD countries, with a very marked upward trend in some of them
		2.3.10. Part-time has grown and it is increasingly involuntary
		2.3.11. Short part-time and on-call labour have risen in many countries
		2.3.12. Self-employment is on a long-term downward trend, with some notable exceptions
		2.3.13. Dependent self-employment and false self-employment are becoming more common
		2.3.14. While some forms of employment may be new, the key policy challenges are as old as non-standard work itself
		2.3.15. The line between salaried work and self-employment is increasingly blurred, posing a key challenge for regulators
	2.4. Inclusiveness: Preventing a more unequal future of work
		2.4.1. While overall employment has been growing, some industries have dramatically declined
		2.4.2. The labour market has become more polarised
		2.4.3. Labour market changes may contribute to the growing sense of frustration and discontent among the middle class
		2.4.4. A tale of broken promises?
		2.4.5. A shrinking share of national income is going to workers
		2.4.6. Winner-takes-most dynamics, superstar firms, and the falling labour share
		2.4.7. Increasing market concentration in certain industries sparks new worries of growing monopsony power
		2.4.8. The effects of the megatrends are geographically concentrated and contribute to regional disparities
		2.4.9. The megatrends may contribute to further inequality in the labour market without opportune policy action
	2.5. Concluding remarks
	References
	Notes
3 The future of work: New evidence on job stability, under-employment and access to good jobs
	Introduction
	3.1. Are jobs becoming less stable?
		3.1.1. Job stability has decreased for all age groups
			The largest declines in job stability have occurred for workers with low education
		3.1.2. Decreasing job tenure may be the result of increased job mobility
			The evidence that the decline in tenure is due to higher mobility between jobs is mixed across countries
			The risk of involuntary entry into unemployment has remained stable on average across countries
			Increases in the risk of involuntary unemployment disproportionately affected men
			Overall, the cross-country picture is mixed and lower stability has not necessarily been associated with increased mobility between jobs
	3.2. Not unemployed, but under-employed?
		3.2.1. The incidence of under-employment varies across countries and has increased more in those hit hardest by the crisis
		3.2.2. The rise in under-employment also reflects permanent structural changes
		3.2.3. Under-employment has increased more for youth and those with less than tertiary education
		3.2.4. Women remain much more likely to be under-employed than men, despite higher than average increases for low-educated men
	3.3. Job polarisation and access to good jobs
		3.3.1. The decline in the share of middle-skilled jobs has not led to a decline in the share of middle-paid workers
			The share of middle-paid jobs has increased in most countries despite the decline in the share of middle-skilled occupations
			The share of high-paid jobs has not grown as fast as the share of high-skilled occupations
			The polarisation of the occupational structure has not led to a hollowing out of the pay distribution
		3.3.2. The probability of low-paid employment has increased for some groups of workers
			The incidence of low pay increased more for the young and those with medium education
			The probability of low-paid employment has increased for young people with medium education
			In many countries, even young people with high education have seen an increase in the probability of low-paid employment
		3.3.3. The risk of being out-of-employment after leaving education has increased for some groups
			The risk of non-employment has increased for men but decreased for women
			Young people with low and medium education suffered the largest increases in the probability of non-employment
			The fortunes of the young have been declining
	3.4. Concluding remarks
	References
		Annex 3.A. Additional results
	Notes
4 Labour market regulation 4.0: Protecting workers in a changing world of work
	Introduction
	4.1. Employment status: A gateway to workers’ rights and protections
		4.1.1. Tackling false self-employment: Ensuring that individuals are correctly classified
		4.1.2. Workers in the grey zone between self- and dependent employment
	4.2. Extending rights and protections beyond standard employees
		4.2.1. Fair pay
		4.2.2. Regulating working time
		4.2.3. Occupational safety and health
		4.2.4. Anti-discrimination
		4.2.5. Employment protection
	4.3. Monopsony power, labour market efficiency and worker vulnerability
		4.3.1. Enforcing regulation to address labour market monopsony
		4.3.2. Other interventions to reduce frictions
	4.4. International competition
	4.5. Concluding remarks
	References
		Annex 4.A.  Labour market monopsony: Evidence and regulation
	Empirical evidence on labour market monopsony and its effects
	Enforcing regulation to address labour market monopsony
		No-poaching agreements and labour market collusion
		Non-compete covenants
		Mergers and anti-competitive conduct
		Informational asymmetries
	Notes
5 Facing the future of work: How to make the most of collective bargaining
	Introduction
	5.1. Collective bargaining in a changing world of work
		5.1.1. Collective agreements can be flexible tools to address some of today’s and tomorrow’s challenges
		5.1.2. Collective bargaining can complement public policies in enhancing labour market security and adaptability
		5.1.3. But challenges are accumulating…
		5.1.4. …and there are legal obstacles to overcome
	5.2. Adapting regulations to more diverse forms of employment
		5.2.1. Enforcing the correct classification of the employment relationship
		5.2.2. Tailoring labour law to grant access to bargaining to workers in the grey zone
		5.2.3. Exempting specific forms of self-employment or sectors/occupations from the prohibition to bargain collectively
	5.3. How can social partners enhance collective bargaining and social dialogue in non-standard and new forms of work?
		5.3.1. Unions are diversifying their strategies to reach potential members
		5.3.2. Unions are adapting their own organisation and structure
		5.3.3. Employers’ organisations are slowly adjusting
		5.3.4. A few innovative agreements have been signed in Europe
	5.4. Increased pressure and new challenges have led to the emergence of non-traditional initiatives
		5.4.1. A new mutualism
		5.4.2. Platforms are also taking some actions
		5.4.3. New technologies can also strengthen workers’ voice
		5.4.4. Non-traditional actors can complement but not substitute for social partners
	5.5. Concluding remarks
	References
		Annex 5.A. Union density and forms of employment: Sources and additional material
		Annex 5.B. Additional material on youth and collective actions
	Individual values and support for collective action among young people
	Trust and perceived necessity of trade unions
	Notes
6 Making adult learning systems future-ready for all
	Introduction
	6.1. How megatrends are influencing the demand and supply for skills
	6.2. Some groups are more affected than others
	6.3. Encouraging participation in adult learning by under-represented groups
		6.3.1. Low-skilled adults
			Improving the willingness to train among low-skilled adults
			Making training more accessible to the low-skilled
			Dealing with entry requirements
			Making time for training or making training less time-consuming
			Reducing the financial barrier to training
			Encouraging employers to provide training to the low-skilled
		6.3.2. Workers with jobs at high risk of automation
		6.3.3. Displaced workers
		6.3.4. Temporary workers
			Equal treatment: rights, entitlements and representation
			Targeted programmes
		6.3.5. Own-account workers
			Barriers to training for own-account workers
			Adapting the legislative and collective bargaining framework
			Putting time aside for training
			Making training more affordable
			Providing skills advice and guidance
		6.3.6. Platform workers
		6.3.7. Part-time workers
			The glass half-full: could part-time work help workers train?
		6.3.8. Older adults
	6.4. Can individual learning accounts make adult learning accessible to a broader group of adults?
	6.5. Building adequate financing, governance, and quality assessment mechanisms
		6.5.1. Quality of training and alignment to current and future skills needs
		6.5.2. Financing
		6.5.3. Governance
	6.6. Concluding remarks
	References
	Notes
7 Left on your own? Social protection when labour markets are in flux
	Introduction
	7.1. Prevention, protection, promotion: Social protection and the future of work
	7.2. Social protection for alternative forms of employment: What are the gaps?
		7.2.1. Statutory access
			Statutory access for non-standard workers varies by social protection branch
		7.2.2. How much protection is available in practice?
	7.3. Addressing social protection gaps: Key policy issues
		7.3.1. Challenges in insurance-based social protection
		7.3.2. Challenges in universal or means-tested social protection
		7.3.3. Technical issues related to volatile careers and earnings
		7.3.4. Prevention and promotion: Activation policies in future labour markets
			Reintegrating displaced workers
			Activation of whom and towards what?
			Balancing incentives and support
		7.3.5. Ensuring that social protection resources match evolving demands
			Tackling financial incentives in favour of non-standard work
			Balancing financing burdens across employers
	7.4. Concluding remarks
	References
	Notes
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