Oecd Employment Outlook 2014: Edition 2014: Volume 2014

Foreword
Table of contents
Editorial: Both more and better jobs are needed for an inclusive recovery from the crisis
Acronyms and abbreviation
Executive summary
Chapter 1. An update on the labour market situation
	Key findings
	Introduction
	1. Taking stock of the labour market recovery and the short-term outlook
		Further progress is needed on the jobs front
			Figure 1.1. The jobs recovery has not gone very far yet
		Changes in the age and skill composition of the population have also affected employment growth
			Figure 1.2. Population ageing and skill upgrading are having a significant impact on employment
		Unemployment and long-term unemployment remain persistently high
			Figure 1.3. Unemployment has started to decline, but further progress is required
			Box 1.1. What explains stubbornly low employment rates in the United States?
				Decomposition of the change in employment in the United States
			Figure 1.4. Long-term unemployment remains persistently high
	2. How much of the persistently high increase in unemployment has become structural?
		While the rise in unemployment remains largely cyclical its structural component has also increased
			Figure 1.5. The rise in unemployment remains largely cyclical but its structural component has increased
		Matching efficiency may have declined in some countries where long-term unemployment has risen sharply
			Figure 1.6. The Beveridge curve has shifted out in some countries, but not in others
		Nevertheless, cyclical factors continue to account for half or more of the decline in the job-finding prospects among the unemployed
			Figure 1.7. Weak employment prospects reflect weak aggregate demand and reduced matching efficiency
			Box 1.2. Sectoral mismatch
				Sectoral mismatch follows a cyclical pattern
	Conclusions
	Notes
	References
	Database references
	Annex 1.A1. Supplementary material
		Table 1.A1.1. Recent and projected macroeconomic developments
		Table 1.A1.2. Recent and projected labour market developments
Chapter 2. Sharing the pain equally? Wage adjustments during the crisis and recovery
	Key findings
	Introduction
	1. Wage adjustment during the crisis and recovery
		The persistence of labour market slack has exerted considerable downward pressure on aggregate wage growth
			Figure 2.1. Real wage growth has fallen
			Box 2.1. Rebalancing in the euro area and the role of labour market policies
				Adjustments in nominal unit labour costs, real unit labour costs and employment in the euro area
		There is also some indication that the responsiveness of wage growth has slowed…
			Figure 2.2. Nominal wage growth has tended to become less responsive to unemployment
			Box 2.2. Estimating wage-Phillips curves
				Regression estimates of wage-Phillips curves
		… possibly due to the increasing importance of downward wage rigidities or rising structural unemployment
		Before the global financial crisis, downward adjustments in both real and nominal wages were limited
		Since the crisis, downward adjustments in real wages have become more frequent while nominal wage floors have tended to become more binding
			Figure 2.3. Nominal downward wage rigidities have tended to become more binding since the start of the crisis
			Box 2.3. Analysing downward wage rigidity: An application using administrative data for Spain
				The incidence of nominal downward wage rigidity is concentrated among low-wage workers
				The incidence of nominal downward wage rigidity has increased dramatically in Spain since the start of the global financial crisis
		Wage-setting institutions play an important role in shaping wage adjustments
		The wages of new hires tend to be much more responsive to the cycle than those of incumbent workers…
		… but also depend on the nature of wage-setting institutions
			Figure 2.4. Wages are more cyclical for new hires than incumbent workers
	2. How is the burden of wage adjustment shared over the workforce?
		The slowdown in real earnings growth was widely spread across the earnings distribution…
			Figure 2.5. The slowdown in real wage growth was widely spread
			Box 2.4. The role of minimum wages in reducing low pay
				Some OECD countries set the legal minimum wage much higher relative to the median wage than others
		… leaving earnings inequality largely unchanged in most countries
			Figure 2.6. The crisis left wage inequality largely unchanged
			Box 2.5. Decomposing aggregate wage changes into composition and pure wage effects
				Real average wage growth has tended to slow somewhat more strongly once composition effects are taken into account
	Conclusions
	Notes
	References
	Database references
	Annex 2.A1. Supplementary material
		Table 2.A1.1. Growth in real wages, labour productivity, unit labour costs and consumer prices in OECD countries
Chapter 3. How good is your job? Measuring and assessing job quality
	Key findings
	Introduction
	1. An operational framework for measuring and assessing job quality
		Defining the main dimensions of job quality…
			Box 3.1. Measuring well-being: The Stiglitz-Sen-Fitoussi report and the OECD Better Life Initiative
		… and translating them into indicators and evidence…
			Box 3.2. Recent international initiatives on measuring job quality
		… that allow reassessing the role of labour market policies for overall labour market performance
			Table 3.1. Broad outcome measures of job quality and their subcomponents
	2. Job quality outcomes and well-being
		Earnings quality
			Figure 3.1. The relationship between household income and life satisfaction
			Box 3.3. Analysing earnings, inequality and welfare using general means
				The role of inequality aversion for earnings quality
			Figure 3.2. Average earnings, earnings inequality and the overall quality of earnings by country
		Labour market security
			Figure 3.3. Unemployment risk and its components in OECD countries
			Figure 3.4. Effective unemployment insurance in OECD countries
			Box 3.4. Using unemployment-benefit coverage rates as a proxy for eligibility to unemployment benefits
				Coverage and eligibility rates across workforce groups
			Box 3.5. The role of unemployment risk and insurance for subjective well-being
				Unemployment risk and insurance have important implications for well being
			Figure 3.5. Labour market insecurity in OECD countries
		Quality of the working environment
			Box 3.6. When job strain impairs workers’ health: a brief overview of recent empirical studies
			Table 3.2. Job demands, job resources and job strain
			Box 3.7. Defining job strain
				Relationships between job demands, job resources and workers’ health, 2010
			Figure 3.6. Excessive demands, insufficient resources and job strain, 2010
			Figure 3.7. Relationship between job strain, workers’ health and job satisfaction, 2010
			Box 3.8. Constructing a reduced job strain indicator based on the results of two different international surveys
				Rank correlations between EWCS-based and ISSP-based indices across the 16 common countries
			Figure 3.8. A reduced job strain index for 32 OECD countries
	3. A statistical portrait of job quality
		How do countries compare?
			Table 3.3. A dashboard of job quality indicators in OECD countries
			Figure 3.9. A synthetic picture of country performance along the three main dimensions of job quality
			Figure 3.10. Relationship between job quality and job quantity
		Which workers hold quality jobs?
			Figure 3.11. Job quality and job quantity outcomes by socio-demographic group
			Figure 3.12. Job quality and job quantity outcomes by type of employment
	Conclusions
	Notes
	References
	Database references
	Annex 3.A1. Defining and measuring job strain
		Table 3.A1.1. Recent empirical studies on the health impact of job strain
		Table 3.A1.2. Definition of job-demand and job-resource variables (cont.)
		Table 3.A1.3. Definition of job-demand and job-resource variables – EWCS and ISSP, 2005
	Annex 3.A2. A statistical portrait of job quality
		Table 3.A2.1. Regression analysis of job quality measures
		Figure 3.A2.1. The subcomponents of labour market security
		Figure 3.A2.2. The subcomponents of job strain
Chapter 4. Non-regular employment, job security and the labour market divide
	Key findings
	Introduction
	1. Scope and characterisation of non-regular employment
		Box 4.1. Defining non-regular employment
		The incidence of non-regular employment
			Table 4.1. Permanent and fixed-term contracts, of which with a temporary work agency
			Box 4.2. Casual employment* in Australia
			Figure 4.1. Fixed-term contracts among new hires, 2006-07 and 2011-12
			Figure 4.2. Duration of fixed-term contracts
			Figure 4.3. Reason for having a contract of limited duration, 2011-12
			Figure 4.4. Share of dependent self-employed as a percentage of dependent workers, 2010
		Who are temporary workers and where do they work?
			Figure 4.5. Temporary employment by age group, 2011-12
			Figure 4.6. Temporary employment by level of education of people aged 25-54, 2011-12
			Figure 4.7. Differences in information-processing skills: Temporary compared to regular workers
			Figure 4.8. Temporary employees aged 25 to 54 by occupation, 2011-12
	2. Statutory employment protection of non-regular workers
		Regulation on temporary employment
			Table 4.2. Valid cases for use of non-permanent employment contracts
			Table 4.3. Duration, renewals and circumstances for conversion of standard fixed-term contracts (FTC) to permanent ones (cont.)
			Table 4.4. Costs and difficulty of dismissals of workers with standard fixed-term contracts as compared to regular contracts (cont.)
		Dependent self-employed workers
			Box 4.3. Italian collaborators and the 2012 labour market reform
	3. From protection to security: Exploring disparities in job security across contracts
		Patterns of job security linked to contractual arrangements
			Figure 4.9. Impact of contract type on one-year transition probabilities from employment to unemployment and inactivity
			Figure 4.10. Perceptions of job insecurity by type of contract
			Figure 4.11. Perceptions of job insecurity for non-regular workers in high and low EPL countries
			Figure 4.12. Wage penalty for non-regular employees
		Are temporary jobs “stepping-stones” or “traps”?
			Figure 4.13. Three-year transition rates from temporary to permanent contracts
			Figure 4.14. Temporary workers and employer-sponsored training
	4. Policy options to reduce labour market segmentation
		Box 4.4. Employment protection legislation and labour market duality
	Conclusions
	Notes
	References
	Database references
	Annex 4.A1. Additional tables and figures
		Figure 4.A1.1. Temporary employment by industry, 2011-12, people aged 25 to 54
		Table 4.A1.1. Seasonal and project work contracts
		Table 4.A1.2. Temporary work agency employment
Chapter 5. The role of skills in early labour market outcomes and beyond
	Key findings
	Introduction
		Box 5.1. The OECD Survey of Adult Skills
	1. The importance of skills for youth labour market outcomes
		Table 5.1. Glossary of skill areas explored in the chapter
		Weak information-processing skills among youth are more strongly associated with the probability of being NEET than educational attainment
			Figure 5.1. The relationship between the probability of being NEET, the level of literacy proficiency, educational attainment and field of study, by age group
		But educational attainment matters more for young people’s wages
			Box 5.2. How much of the return to education is explained by information-processing skills?
				The return to one additional year of education, with and without controlling for other skill areas (youth 16-29)
			Figure 5.2. The link between hourly wages, literacy level, educational attainment, field of study and generic skills, by age group
			Box 5.3. Returns to information-processing skills increase with experience
				Evidence of employer learning and statistical discrimination across the OECD
		Once all skill areas are accounted for, education still plays a key role in explaining the variance in youth hourly wages
			Box 5.4. Measuring the relative importance of different skill areas on labour market outcomes
			Figure 5.3. The determinants of the variation in hourly wages by age group
	2. Inefficient investments in education and skills
		Figure 5.4. Total mismatch among youth (16-29) by type of mismatch
		Box 5.5. Qualification, skills and field of study mismatch: Definitions and measurement
		Figure 5.5. Skills mismatch by age group and type of mismatcha
		Figure 5.6. Skills use and mismatch, by age group and type of mismatch
		Figure 5.7. Wages and mismatch, by age group and type of mismatch
	3. Improving labour market outcomes through skill-related policies
		Enhancing investments in work-relevant skills
			Box 5.6. The causal impact of education on information-processing skills
			Figure 5.8. The determinants of the variation in literacy proficiency by age group
			Figure 5.9. The determinants of the variation in generic skills used at work, youth (16-29)
			Box 5.7. A picture of work and study using the OECD Survey of Adult Skills
				Share of youth (16-29) combining work and study
				Composition of work and study by type of programme
			Box 5.8. Career guidance: Getting it right
		Ensuring that investments in skills pay off
			Table 5.2. Labour market institutions and returns to information-processing skills
			Table 5.3. Employer learning and labour market institutions
			Table 5.4. Returns to over-skilling in literacy
	Conclusions
	Notes
	References
	Database references
	Annex 5.A1. Information-processing and generic skills in the OECD Survey of Adult Skills
		Table 5.A1.1. Proficiency levels: Tasks completed successfully at the lowest and highest levels of proficiency in each domain
		Table 5.A1.2. Indicators of skills use at work
	Annex 5.A2. Coding of ISCO-08 3-digit occupation classification to field of study
Statistical annex
	Conventional signs
		Major breaks in series
		Table A. Harmonised unemployment rates in OECD countries
		Table B. Employment/population ratios by selected age groups
		Table C. Labour force participation rates by selected age groups
		Table D. Unemployment rates by selected age groups
		Table E. Employment/population ratios by educational attainment, 2012
		Table F. Labour force participation rates by educational attainment, 2012
		Table G. Unemployment rates by educational attainment, 2012
		Table H. Incidence and composition of part-time employment
		Table I. Incidence and composition of temporary employment
		Table J. Incidence of job tenure of less than 12 months
		Table K. Average annual hours actually worked per person in employment
		Table L. Incidence of long-term unemployment, 12 months and over
		Table M. Real average annual wages and real unit labour costs in the total economy
		Table N. Earnings dispersion and incidence of high and low pay
		Table O. Relative earnings: gender, age and education gaps
		Table P. Public expenditure and participant stocks in labour market programmes in OECD countries, 2011 and 2012