OECD Economic Surveys: Sweden 2000-2001 (O E C D Economic Surveys Sweden)

Table of contents......Page 5
Assessment and recommendations......Page 10
Overview......Page 24
Figure 1. Macroeconomic performance......Page 25
Buoyant private consumption......Page 27
Figure 2. The forces shaping private consumption......Page 28
Private investment and financial savings......Page 29
Figure 3. Business and housing investment and private financial savings......Page 30
Public-sector consumption and investments......Page 31
Figure 4. Real public-sector consumption, investment and employment......Page 32
Foreign trade and current account developments......Page 33
Figure 5. Export market performance and import penetration......Page 34
Table 2. Various measures of inflation, 1997-2000......Page 35
Figure 6. Inflation and inflation expectations......Page 37
Box 1. Inflation measures frequently used in Sweden......Page 38
Table 4. Costs, prices and profitability in the business sector......Page 39
Figure 7. Profit share in the business sector in Sweden and the euro area......Page 40
Table 5. Hourly earnings and labour costs, 1997-2000......Page 41
Figure 8. Nominal and real wage increases......Page 42
Output and productivity at the aggregate and industry levels......Page 43
Figure 9. Actual and potential output......Page 44
Employment and unemployment......Page 45
Box 2. Survey indicators of labour shortages across industries......Page 46
Figure 10. Indicators of labour shortages......Page 47
Figure 11. Labour market developments......Page 49
Has the growth-inflation trade off improved in recent years?......Page 48
The outlook to 2002......Page 50
Table 7. Outlook for2001 and2002......Page 51
The framework for monetary policy......Page 53
Figure 12. Selected inflation forecasts by the Riksbank, 1999-2000......Page 55
Figure 13. Short-term interest rates and exchange rate developments......Page 57
Figure 14. Capital flows......Page 59
Long-term interest rates and mortgage financing......Page 58
Figure 15. Long-term interest rates......Page 60
Table 8. Mortgage institutions’ lending to households, 1996-2000......Page 61
Financial stability and credit developments......Page 62
Figure 16. Lending, money growth and financial stability......Page 63
Fiscal policy......Page 64
The achievements of the consolidation process briefly revisited......Page 65
Figure 17. The fiscal balance and the public debt......Page 66
Latitude for reform?......Page 67
Table 10.  Discretionary fiscal policy measures in the budgets for 2000 and 2001......Page 69
Figure 19. The budget balance and household saving rate......Page 71
Expenditure ceilings......Page 73
Figure 20. Demarcation of ceiling-restricted expenditure, 2000......Page 74
Table 12. Absolute mean forecast errors in the spring budgets, 1988-98......Page 75
Table 13. Expenditure ceilings: experiences in1997-99 and expectations for2000-03......Page 76
Assessment of the current policy mix......Page 77
Long-term decline and recent recovery in economic performance......Page 80
Figure 21. Long-run economic growth performance......Page 81
Figure 22. The evolution of employment and investment......Page 82
Figure 23. Multi-factor productivity growth......Page 83
Table 15. Nascent entrepreneurs in different countries......Page 85
Progress with reducing structural unemployment......Page 86
Figure 24. Actual and structural unemployment......Page 87
Figure 25. Structural settings of Swedish labour-market policies......Page 88
Box 5. Activity guarantee......Page 89
Supplementary benefits for part-time workers sustain unemployment......Page 90
Figure 26. Employment and unemployment for part-time workers......Page 91
Active labour market policies......Page 92
Table 16. Participants in labour-market programmes and adult education......Page 93
Employment and participation rates remain well below earlier peak levels......Page 94
Figure 27. Contributions to the labour force, 1970-2020......Page 96
Table 17. Changes in participation rates from1990 to2000......Page 97
Figure 28. Employment and participation rates......Page 98
Working-time policies......Page 99
Box 7. Implications of reduced working hours on the public finances......Page 101
Table 19. Transfer recipients aged 16-64 years......Page 102
Tax policies......Page 104
Table 20.  Average marginal effective tax rates, 1991 and 2000......Page 105
Competition and product markets......Page 107
Electricity......Page 108
Table 22. Electricity prices paid by households......Page 109
Telecommunications......Page 110
Distribution......Page 112
Table 23. Supermarket and hypermarket shares......Page 114
Construction......Page 115
Rental housing......Page 116
Table 24. Private-sector production share of social services......Page 117
Assessment and scope for further action......Page 119
Table 25. Structural Policy Recommendations......Page 120
Background......Page 126
The policy making process and its key players......Page 127
Environmental objectives......Page 129
Environmental policy design......Page 131
Policy instruments......Page 132
Acidification......Page 134
Table 28. Emissions: achievements and targets......Page 135
Figure 30. Exports and imports of air-borne pollutants, 1997......Page 136
Box 8. Sweden’s NOx charge: an effective economic instrument......Page 137
Figure 31. Sources of emissions for sulphur, NOx and ammonia by sector......Page 138
Table 29. Economic instruments for sources of air-borne pollution......Page 140
Box 9. Economic incentives to reduce emissions from shipping......Page 142
Greenhouse gases and global warming......Page 144
Figure 32. CO2emissions by source......Page 145
Policies to reduce CO2emissions......Page 146
Table 30.  Energy and CO2 tax rates......Page 147
Appropriate level and mix of taxes......Page 148
Figure 34. Energy and fuel prices in OECD countries, 1999......Page 149
Figure 35. Energy intensity in Sweden and other IEA countries......Page 150
Equalising abatement costs......Page 151
Energy supply......Page 153
Strategy for addressing global warming in the future......Page 155
Water quality......Page 156
Policies to reduce nitrogen......Page 157
Solid waste management......Page 158
Extended producer responsibility......Page 159
Landfill minimisation......Page 161
Conclusions and policy recommendations......Page 162
Box 10. Recommendations for further action......Page 165
Notes......Page 167
Bibliography......Page 174
Table A1. Taxes on capital, 1997......Page 179
Annex II.  Extended producer responsibility versus environmental taxes......Page 181
Annex III.  Calendar of main economic events......Page 183