Oecd Economic Surveys: Russian Federation 2000

Table of contents
Assessment and recommendations
Introduction
I. Macroeconomic overview
	Table 1. Basic economic indicators
	The financial crisis of 1997-98: the causes and consequences
		Figure 1. Short-term capital flows, current account balance and the federal deficit
		Figure 2. The Russian stock market: boom and bust
		Figure 3. Open foreign position and government bond holdings...
		Figure 4. Interest rates on GKO and Eurobonds
		Figure 5. Federal tax collection in cash and surrogates
		Figure 6. The mounting burden of federal debt
	Output: from decline to constrained recovery
		Figure 7. GDP volume indices
		Figure 8. Industrial output
		Figure 9. Key Russian export prices
		Figure 10. The dollar value of imports and exports
		Table 2. Volume index of Russia’s main export commodities
		Figure 11. Import substitution in Russian industry
		Figure 12. CPI, PPI, energy and transportation price inflation
		Figure 13. Effective exchange rates
		Figure 14. Fixed capital investment
	The balance of payments: from weakness to strength
		Table 3. The balance of payments
	Monetary policy under new constraints
		Figure 15. CPI monthly inflation and the exchange rate
		Figure 16. Nominal and real M2
		Figure 17. International gold and currency reserves of the CBR
	The federal budget and fiscal policy
		Table 4. The federal budget
		Table 5. The general government budget
		Box 1. Recent changes in federal tax laws and procedures
	Government debt
		Box 2. GKO-OFZ restructuring
		Figure 18. Government debt as share of GDP
		Table 6. External government debt
	Income, employment, and welfare
		Figure 19. Unemployment
		Figure 20. Unemployment and spells of joblessness
		Figure 21. Real income, wages, and pensions
		Figure 22. Retail turnover (real terms)
	Commercial bank restructuring and regulation: the enormous challenge
		Figure 23. Real household deposits in commercial banks
		Box 3. Commercial bank restructuring and ARKO
		Figure 24. Profitability of the 30 largest Russian banks
		Table 7. Selected balance sheet indicators of the 30 largest banks
II. Demonetisation: the causes and policy implications
	Demonetisation and money surrogates: recent trends
		Figure 25. The share of non-cash receipts for industrial firms
		Figure 26. The share of non-cash receipts for large firms and natural monopolies
		Figure 27. The real value of attracted resources through issues of veksels by commercial banks
		Table 8. Types of payments in large firms and natural monopolies...
		Figure 28. Enterprise arrears
		Figure 29. Non-cash receipts as a share of federal...
		Table 9. Correlations between surrogates and selected economic variables across...
	The causes of demonetisation
		Inherited institutions
		The effects of changes in macroeconomic policy
			Figure 30. Commercial credit to the non-financial sector...
		Institutional problems
			Figure 31. Real indices for electricity, gas, and transportation prices
			Figure 32. Surrogates and tax arrears to consolidated regional...
			Figure 33. Wage arrears
	The fall in the share of surrogates in 1999
		Figure 34. The decline of surrogates in tax revenue and regional export intensity
	Policy options
		Box 4. The Perm region programme for increasing the share of cash in tax revenue
III. Fiscal federalism
	Fiscal federalism and the case of Russia
	The basic institutions of fiscal federalism in Russia
		Box 5. The organisation of the Russian fiscal system
		Table 10. Russian fiscal organs operating in the regions
		Box 6. Agreements between the Federal Government and Regional...
		Table 11. Indicators of asymmetry in fiscal federalist relations
	Revenue division, expenditure assignments, and transfers: the formal system
		Table 12. Decentralisation in Russian state finance
		Figure 35. The share of sub-national budgets in total revenue in selected federations
		Revenue
			Table 13. The composition of regional and local budgetary revenue
			Box 7. Changes in tax and budget laws in 1999
				Tax revenue to consolidated regional budgets
			Table 14. The share of local budgets in major regulated taxes
		Expenditures
			Table 15. Major federal mandates in 1998
		Interbudgetary transfers
			Figure 36. The size and structure of federal transfers and loans to subjects...
			Table 16. Planned and actual transfers from the FFSSF to selected regions
	The outcomes of the system: budgetary balance, incentives, and the regional financial crisis
		Budgetary balance
			Figure 37. Deficit finance of the consolidated regional budgets: 1995-1998
			Figure 38. Subnational repayment/borrowing ratios
			Table 17. Indicators of subnational budgetary imbalance
		Surrogates, arrears, and extrabudgetary funds
			Figure 39. Subnational wage arrears and federal credits
			Table 18. Territorial state (federal) extra-budgetary funds relative to revenue...
			Box 8. Can regional administrations explicitly withhold federal tax revenues?
		Subnational debt and loan guarantees
			Figure 40. Accumulated subnational domestic debt since 1995
			Table 19. Size and structure of subnational debt and loan guarantees in 53 regions
	Policy options and reforms
Notes
Bibliography
Annexes
	Annex I - Expenditure assignments in the Russian Federation
		Expenditure assignments in the Russian Federation
	Annex II - The legal framework for subnational borrowing
		The legal framework for subnational borrowing
BASIC STATISTICS: INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
	BASIC STATISTICS: INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
	BASIC STATISTICS: INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS (cont’d)
	BASIC STATISTICS: INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS (cont’d)
Boxes
	Box 1. Recent changes in federal tax laws and procedures
	Box 2. GKO-OFZ restructuring
	Box 3. Commercial bank restructuring and ARKO
	Box 4. The Perm region programme for increasing the share of cash in tax revenue
	Box 5. The organisation of the Russian fiscal system
	Box 6. Agreements between the Federal Government and Regional...
	Box 7. Changes in tax and budget laws in 1999
		Tax revenue to consolidated regional budgets
	Box 8. Can regional administrations explicitly withhold federal tax revenues?
Tables
	Table 1. Basic economic indicators
	Table 2. Volume index of Russia’s main export commodities
	Table 3. The balance of payments
	Table 4. The federal budget
	Table 5. The general government budget
	Table 6. External government debt
	Table 7. Selected balance sheet indicators of the 30 largest banks
	Table 8. Types of payments in large firms and natural monopolies...
	Table 9. Correlations between surrogates and selected economic variables across...
	Table 10. Russian fiscal organs operating in the regions
	Table 11. Indicators of asymmetry in fiscal federalist relations
	Table 12. Decentralisation in Russian state finance
	Table 13. The composition of regional and local budgetary revenue
	Table 14. The share of local budgets in major regulated taxes
	Table 15. Major federal mandates in 1998
	Table 16. Planned and actual transfers from the FFSSF to selected regions
	Table 17. Indicators of subnational budgetary imbalance
	Table 18. Territorial state (federal) extra-budgetary funds relative to revenue...
	Table 19. Size and structure of subnational debt and loan guarantees in 53 regions
Figures
	Figure 1. Short-term capital flows, current account balance and the federal deficit
	Figure 2. The Russian stock market: boom and bust
	Figure 3. Open foreign position and government bond holdings...
	Figure 4. Interest rates on GKO and Eurobonds
	Figure 5. Federal tax collection in cash and surrogates
	Figure 6. The mounting burden of federal debt
	Figure 7. GDP volume indices
	Figure 8. Industrial output
	Figure 9. Key Russian export prices
	Figure 10. The dollar value of imports and exports
	Figure 11. Import substitution in Russian industry
	Figure 12. CPI, PPI, energy and transportation price inflation
	Figure 13. Effective exchange rates
	Figure 14. Fixed capital investment
	Figure 15. CPI monthly inflation and the exchange rate
	Figure 16. Nominal and real M2
	Figure 17. International gold and currency reserves of the CBR
	Figure 18. Government debt as share of GDP
	Figure 19. Unemployment
	Figure 20. Unemployment and spells of joblessness
	Figure 21. Real income, wages, and pensions
	Figure 22. Retail turnover (real terms)
	Figure 23. Real household deposits in commercial banks
	Figure 24. Profitability of the 30 largest Russian banks
	Figure 25. The share of non-cash receipts for industrial firms
	Figure 26. The share of non-cash receipts for large firms and natural monopolies
	Figure 27. The real value of attracted resources through issues of veksels by commercial banks
	Figure 28. Enterprise arrears
	Figure 29. Non-cash receipts as a share of federal...
	Figure 30. Commercial credit to the non-financial sector...
	Figure 31. Real indices for electricity, gas, and transportation prices
	Figure 32. Surrogates and tax arrears to consolidated regional...
	Figure 33. Wage arrears
	Figure 34. The decline of surrogates in tax revenue and regional export intensity
	Figure 35. The share of sub-national budgets in total revenue in selected federations
	Figure 36. The size and structure of federal transfers and loans to subjects...
	Figure 37. Deficit finance of the consolidated regional budgets: 1995-1998
	Figure 38. Subnational repayment/borrowing ratios
	Figure 39. Subnational wage arrears and federal credits
	Figure 40. Accumulated subnational domestic debt since 1995