Oecd Economic Surveys: Federal Republic of Yugoslavia 2002 (Oecd Economic Surveys)

Table of contents......Page 4
Basic statistics of the federal republic of Yugoslavia......Page 7
Assessment and recommendations......Page 9
I. Anatomy of economic decline......Page 21
Table 1. Basic economic indicators......Page 22
Figure 2. Retail price inflation, 1995-2001......Page 23
A break with the past......Page 24
Box 1. A new federal structure for the FRY......Page 25
Box 2. The Economic Programmes of the FRY, Serbia and Montenegro......Page 27
Recent economic performance......Page 28
Figure 3. Gross material product, industrial output and agricultural output, 1998-2001......Page 29
Figure 4. Employment and unemployment......Page 30
Figure 5. Inflation, 1999-2002......Page 31
Figure 6. Consolidated budget on Serbian territory and the Montenegrin budget, 2001......Page 32
Table 2. Foreign trade, 1990-2001......Page 33
Figure 7. Average real wage rate and retail trade......Page 34
Box 3. Kosovo......Page 35
II. Macroeconomic performance and policy......Page 37
Table 3. Shares of gross material product by sector......Page 38
Table 4. Industrial output, 1998-2001......Page 39
The puzzle of weak recovery......Page 40
The impact of reform on enterprises in Serbia......Page 41
Table 5. Selected balance sheet indicators of Serbian firms, 2000-01......Page 42
Table 6. Share of aggregate sales and losses in small firms......Page 43
Table 7. Measures of liquidity for Serbian firms, 2000-01......Page 44
Table 8. Measures of subsidies to Serbian firms......Page 46
Figure 8. The real exchange rate......Page 48
The energy sector......Page 47
Figure 10. Average electricity prices in Serbia, 1996-2001......Page 49
Agriculture......Page 52
The balance of payments......Page 53
Table 9. The FRY balance of payments, 1997-2002......Page 54
Monetary policy......Page 56
Figure 11. Gross foreign reserves of the NBY......Page 57
Figure 12. Money supply......Page 58
Figure 13. Required and actual deposits of Serbian banks with the NBY......Page 59
Figure 14. Monthly interest rates......Page 60
Figure 15. Nominal exchange rate, 2000-02......Page 61
Government budgets and fiscal policy......Page 63
Figure 16. Revenues and expenditures in the FRY and selected countries......Page 64
Table 11. The general government budget on Serbian territory......Page 66
Box 4. Serbian tax reform......Page 67
Table 12. The Serbian republican budget, 2001-02......Page 68
Fiscal challenges ahead......Page 70
Table 13. External debt of the FRY......Page 71
Table 14. IMF study scenario for medium-term external sustainability, 2002-10......Page 72
Table 15. Payable arrears of Serbian state budgets and funds......Page 73
Box 5. Labour market regulations......Page 74
Commercial banking......Page 75
Table 16. The Montenegrin republican budget, 2002......Page 76
Decisive bank restructuring......Page 77
Figure 17. Real dinar and foreign exchange deposits in Serbian commercial banks......Page 79
Table 17. Serbian commercial banks: selected balance sheet indicators......Page 80
The existing SME sector in the FRY......Page 83
Figure 18. Self-employment and small businesses employment in selected countries......Page 86
OECD survey of 404small enterprises in the FRY......Page 85
Table 18. Basic characteristics of firms in the sample......Page 87
Table 19. Directors’ characterisation of firms’ financial condition......Page 88
Table 20. Most significant operating difficulties faced by small firms......Page 89
Table 21. Difficulties faced by small firms in day-to-day operations......Page 90
Table 23. Use of formal contracts by small firms in collecting debts......Page 92
Table 24. Perceived changes in the business environment over the last two years......Page 93
Programmes and policies......Page 94
IV. The enterprise sector and privatisation......Page 98
Initial privatisation in Serbia, 1990-94......Page 100
Figure 19. Foreign direct investment inflows, 1996-2001......Page 101
Experience in Serbia: 1995-97......Page 102
Slow progress in Montenegro led to determined change......Page 103
Table 27. Enterprise transformation in Montenegro, 1990-99......Page 104
A legacy of suspicion......Page 105
Privatisation results: Serbia......Page 106
Box 6. Serbia’s privatisation programme......Page 107
Table 30. Serbian privatisation, January-September 2002......Page 109
Table 31. Privatisation in Montenegro up to July 2002......Page 110
The issue of speed......Page 111
The choice between direct sales and mass privatisation......Page 112
Legitimacy, delay and discretion......Page 114
The privatisation process is still being established......Page 116
Box 7. The fight against corruption......Page 117
Adapting Serbia’s privatisation strategy......Page 118
Successful privatisation depends on improving the business environment......Page 119
Previous trade distortions have left their mark......Page 121
The new government liberalised trade quickly......Page 123
Imports, and exports of some products, have risen…......Page 124
Figure 21. Weight of consumption in import growth, 2001......Page 125
Figure 22. External trade with the European Union, 2001-02......Page 126
…but overall export growth has been disappointing......Page 127
Box 8. International competitiveness and trade specialisation......Page 129
Exports may yet drive recovery......Page 130
Prospects for trade with the EU and in regional markets......Page 131
Table 33. Revealed comparative advantage (RCA)......Page 132
Table 34. Changes in revealed comparative advantage, 1991-2001......Page 134
Notes......Page 138
Bibliography......Page 143
Annex I. Yugoslavia: a selected chronology......Page 146
Annex II. OECD economics department survey of 404small enterprises in the FRY......Page 151
Annex III. Yugoslav enterprise......Page 152
Table A.1. Kosovo basic economic indicators, 2001......Page 154
Table A.2. OECD survey of 404small enterprises in the FRY......Page 155
Table A.3. Description of HS 4-digit codes......Page 178
Table A.4. Detailed structure of exports, 2001......Page 180
Table A.5. Detailed structure of imports, 2001......Page 181