OECD Economic Surveys 2004: United States

Table of contents......Page 5
Basic statistics of the United States......Page 8
Assessment and recommendations......Page 10
Table 1.1. Contributions to GDP growth......Page 26
Figure 1.1. Aggregate economic indicators......Page 28
Table 1.2. Labour market and household indicators......Page 29
Figure 1.2. Labour costs, productivity and profits......Page 30
Table 1.3. Reconciliation of household and payroll employment......Page 31
Table 1.4. Labour market indicators during and after recessions......Page 32
Figure 1.3. Financial indicators and current account......Page 35
Table 1.5. Balance of payments......Page 36
The policy stance......Page 37
Near-term prospects and risks......Page 38
Table 1.6. Near-term outlook......Page 39
Coping with the external deficit......Page 40
Figure 1.4. Net international investment position of the United States......Page 41
Figure 1.5. Gross saving and investment......Page 42
Table 1.7. Capital flows into the United States......Page 43
Ensuring fiscal sustainability and budgetary discipline......Page 44
Figure 1.6. Baseline and adjusted federal budget surplus......Page 45
Figure 1.7. Long-term projected entitlement spending......Page 46
Improving confidence and reducing distortions in financial markets......Page 47
Enhancing competition to sustain higher productivity growth......Page 48
The trade policy challenge......Page 49
The energy/environment challenge......Page 53
The social/equity challenge......Page 55
Table 1.8. The non-elderly without health insurance......Page 56
The education challenge......Page 58
Notes......Page 60
Bibliography......Page 62
Annex 1.1. Progress in structural reform......Page 64
The deterioration of the 10-year budget projections......Page 68
Figure 2.1. CBO’s changing unified budget projections......Page 69
Figure 2.2. Sources of change in unified budget projections......Page 70
Recent legislation and its effects on the budget outlook......Page 71
Table 2.1. Marginal income tax rate provisions......Page 72
Table 2.2. Marriage penalty relief provisions......Page 73
Table 2.3. Effects on budget deficit......Page 74
Box 2.2. The Medicare Prescription Drug, Improvement, and Modernization Act of 2003......Page 76
Adjusting the baseline for alternative policies......Page 78
Figure 2.3. Budget outcomes under alternative policies, 2004-2014......Page 79
Box 2.3. The Alternative Minimum Tax......Page 81
Table 2.4. AMT participation and effects......Page 82
Implications for national income......Page 83
Sub-federal budgets and joint federal-state programmes......Page 85
Figure 2.4. Net state and local government saving......Page 86
Table 2.5. Long-term paths for primary spending......Page 87
Budget windows, sunsets and transparency of the budget outlook......Page 90
Reforming mechanisms for deficit control......Page 92
Notes......Page 95
Bibliography......Page 98
Annex 2.1. Long-run effects of fiscal policies on national income......Page 101
Avoiding deflation......Page 104
Figure 3.1. Total and core inflation......Page 105
Figure 3.2. Rates on selected Treasury securities......Page 107
Figure 3.4. Nominal and real federal funds rate......Page 108
Challenges in communicating the policy stance......Page 109
Strengthening the policy framework......Page 111
Notes......Page 114
Bibliography......Page 115
Exchange-rate and stock-market developments......Page 118
Figure 4.1. Exchange-rate and stock-market developments......Page 119
Corporate governance and accounting reforms......Page 120
Accounting and auditor independence......Page 121
Strengthening corporate governance......Page 123
Reinforcing the SEC......Page 125
Bankruptcy and private pensions......Page 127
Figure 4.2. Private pension under-funding and PBGC financial position......Page 129
Table 4.1. Top 10 firms presenting claims since 1975......Page 130
Distortions from government-sponsored enterprises......Page 132
Figure 4.3. Rapid expansion of government-sponsored enterprises......Page 133
The impact of Basel II......Page 135
Notes......Page 137
Bibliography......Page 138
Overview......Page 140
Competition legislation and enforcement......Page 142
Figure 5.1. Competition law enforcement......Page 145
Strong competitive forces have contributed to good economic performance......Page 147
Table 5.1. Recent trends in output, employment and productivity......Page 148
Barriers to foreign trade are relatively low......Page 149
Figure 5.3. Gross domestic expenditure on R&D as a percentage of GDP......Page 150
Leadership to successfully conclude the Doha round is needed......Page 151
Table 5.2. Ratio of the domestic to the world price, 1991-93......Page 152
Lessons from patent reforms......Page 154
Figure 5.4. Domestic patent grants......Page 155
Intellectual property rights and pharmaceuticals......Page 157
Regulatory policies and competition......Page 159
Telecommunications......Page 160
Figure 5.5. Market shares and prices in long-distance telephone services......Page 161
Figure 5.6. Number of competitive local exchange carriers across the United States......Page 163
Electricity......Page 167
Table 5.3. Retail electricity rates......Page 168
Figure 5.7. Status of state electric industry restructuring activity......Page 169
Figure 5.8. Average wholesale price of electricity in California, 2000 and 2001......Page 170
Concluding remarks......Page 174
Box 5.1. Recommendations regarding product market competition......Page 175
Notes......Page 178
Bibliography......Page 183
Figure A5.1.1. OECD composite basket of residential telephone charges......Page 188
Figure A5.1.3. Electricity prices for households......Page 189
Annex 5.2. California’s experience with reform of retail electricity markets......Page 190
Annex 5.3. Tort reform......Page 192
Annex 5.4. Public procurement......Page 194