OECD economic outlook : may 2019

Editorial  A fragile global economy needs urgent cooperative action
Conventional signs
1 General assessment of the macroeconomic situation
	Introduction
	Global growth is set to remain weak
		Global GDP, trade and investment growth have fallen sharply
		Global growth is set to remain at a modest pace
		Global trade and investment growth are projected to remain subdued
		Labour markets remain supportive and wage growth is rising modestly
		Inflation is set to remain moderate
	Key issues and risks
		An intensification of trade restrictions would have significant costs
		Brexit-related uncertainties still persist
		The slowdown in China and spillovers to the rest of the world
		Financial vulnerabilities remain from high private debt and poor credit quality
	Policy considerations
		Monetary policy considerations
		Fiscal and fiscal-structural policy considerations
		Macroeconomic policy requirements in emerging-market economies
		Structural policy ambition needs to be improved in all countries
	References
		Annex 1.A.  Policy and other assumptions underlying the projections
2 Digitalisation and productivity: A story of complementarities
	Introduction and overview
	Digitalisation has accelerated but remains incomplete
	Digitalisation can support productivity in various ways
		Adoption of digital technologies can support firm productivity
		Online platforms can also stimulate firm productivity
	Complementarities and main policy challenges
		Skills are crucial in a digitalised economy
		Promoting affordable access to high-speed internet can support productivity
		The regulatory environment should promote the efficient reallocation of resources
		Digitalisation poses new challenges regarding competition
		Digital government should be further advanced
		There are important complementarities between policy areas
	References
3 Developments in individual OECD and selected non-member economies
	Argentina
		The economy is in recession, but vulnerabilities are being reduced
		Sticking to policy targets is crucial to restore confidence and reduce inflation
		Exports are projected to lift the economy out of recession
	Australia
		Business investment and government spending are supporting growth
		Accommodative monetary policy remains appropriate and there is now fiscal space
		Growth is projected to remain robust
	Austria
		Consumption is the key driver of growth
		More efficient government spending and structural reforms are key for stronger long-term growth
		Economic activity is set to be less dynamic
	Belgium
		Growth continues to moderate
		Productivity, inclusiveness and long-term fiscal sustainability could be enhanced
		Growth is projected to stabilise
	Brazil
		The expansion has shifted into a lower gear
		Improving the quality of public finances is crucial for restoring confidence
		Growth is projected to gain momentum
	Canada
		Economic growth has slowed
		The macroeconomic policy stance will gradually move towards neutral
		Growth is projected to strengthen
	Chile
		Growth has been boosted by investment
		Policy measures are needed for stronger and more inclusive growth
		Growth is projected to remain robust
	China
		The economy shows some signs of weakening on the back of rising global uncertainties
		Monetary and fiscal policies will ease, but structural reforms should accelerate
		Growth is projected to slow gradually, but remain robust
	Colombia
		Consumption and investment are driving growth
		Further structural reforms would boost inclusive growth
		Growth is projected to stay robust
	Costa Rica
		Economic activity is picking up
		Additional measures to restore fiscal sustainability are needed
		Growth is projected to rise moderately
	Czech Republic
		Growth remains strong
		Investment in infrastructure and training is necessary
		Growth is projected to remain robust
	Denmark
		The long-lasting expansion continues
		Structural reforms are needed to boost productivity growth
		Growth is set to remain strong, amid high uncertainty
	Estonia
		Growth is driven by domestic demand
		Productivity and skills need a boost to accelerate catch-up
		Growth is projected to slow as the economy hits capacity constraints
	Euro area
		Growth has slowed down substantially
		Growth and resilience to future crises need to increase
		Growth is projected to remain subdued
	Finland
		GDP growth is slowing
		Employment needs to be boosted further
		Growth will slow and is vulnerable to further global economic weakness
	France
		Economic activity is resilient
		Additional reforms would help make growth more inclusive
		Internal demand will drive growth
	Germany
		Economic growth has slowed considerably
		Stepping up public investment would support demand and long-term growth
		Weaker global trade and capacity constraints will slow economic growth
	Greece
		The recovery maintains its momentum
		Reducing non-performing loans and improving job creation are priorities
		Reviving investment is essential to sustain the recovery
	Hungary
		Domestic demand is driving strong growth
		Tighter macroeconomic policies are required to prevent overheating
		Growth is projected to slow amidst rising inflationary tensions
	Iceland
		Growth is slowing
		Policy is accommodative
		Growth will continue to slow
	India
		Private activity weakens as spending plans are postponed
		Structural reforms are needed to sustain job creation and incomes
		Growth is projected to rise
	Indonesia
		Growth has been resilient
		Reviving the structural reform agenda is key to higher growth
		Growth is projected to remain robust
	Ireland
		The strong expansion continues
		Policies should aim at ensuring sustainability
		The economy faces capacity constraints and uncertainties
	Israel
		The economy is growing close to its potential rate
		Prudent fiscal policy must be maintained, while promoting more inclusive growth
		Growth is projected to ease slightly
	Italy
		The economic slowdown has been broad-based
		Broad-ranging reforms are needed to revive growth and broaden its benefits
		Growth will resume at a modest pace
	Japan
		Labour and capacity shortages sustain wages and business investment
		Meeting the intertwined challenges of population ageing and government debt
		Growth is projected to continue in line with potential
	Korea
		Domestic and overseas demand has slowed
		Expansionary fiscal policy should be accompanied by structural reform
		Growth of 2½ per cent is projected in 2019-20
	Latvia
		Economic growth is led by domestic demand
		Policy measures should be mobilised to make growth more inclusive
		Economic growth is projected to remain robust
	Lithuania
		Economic growth is driven by domestic demand
		Efforts to raise productivity and equality need to continue
		Growth is projected to ease
	Luxembourg
		Domestic demand underpins growth
		Policies are needed to revive productivity and increase the housing supply
		Growth is projected to slow down
	Mexico
		Economic activity has decelerated
		Containing public spending would stabilise debt and preserve confidence
		Growth is projected to increase modestly
	Netherlands
		Heightened uncertainty and weak external demand are weighing on growth
		Policy measures should reduce imbalances and improve inclusiveness
		Growth is projected to slow sharply
	New Zealand
		Growth has stabilised and capacity is tight
		Fiscal support will ease as the minimum wage is ramped up
		Growth is projected to remain steady
	Norway
		Economic growth has eased somewhat
		Fiscal and monetary support has been reduced
		Mainland output growth will ease amidst substantial downside risks
	Poland
		Domestic demand is driving growth
		Structural reforms would help to raise long-term growth
		Growth is projected to moderate
	Portugal
		Consumer spending has been driven by improved labour market conditions
		Domestic factors are supporting growth
		Economic growth is projected to remain solid
	Slovak Republic
		Growth is moderating but still robust
		Fiscal policy should remain prudent
		Growth is projected to remain robust
	Slovenia
		The recovery is maturing
		Fiscal tightening would limit the risk of overheating
		Growth will slow
	South Africa
		Weak investment hampers growth
		The tight fiscal space calls for structural reforms
		Growth is projected to remain fragile
	Spain
		Growth remains resilient
		Reforms to boost productivity growth and skills should continue
		The pace of the recovery will moderate
	Sweden
		Economic growth is slowing
		Labour and housing market reforms could strengthen growth and inclusiveness
		The economy will remain solid but global uncertainty shrouds the outlook
	Switzerland
		Growth slowed in the course of 2018
		Measures are needed to address labour shortages and rising house prices
		Growth is projected to recover to trend in 2020
	Turkey
		Domestic demand has contracted sharply and trade adjustment is underway
		The policy framework should be made more predictable
		A slow recovery is projected, but risks are substantial
	United Kingdom
		Economic uncertainty has held back business investment
		Policy measures will be needed to smooth the exit from the European Union
		Growth is projected to remain weak
	United States
		The expansion continues
		Policy measures will be needed to support employment and productivity growth
		Growth is projected to slow gradually