OECD economic outlook 91, May 2012.

Table of Contents
 Summary of projections
 Editorial: Confidence, Recovery, and the Euro: Is it Different this Time?
 Chapter 1. General Assessment of the Macroeconomic Situation
 Summary
 Introduction
 Table 1.1. The global recovery is slowly regaining momentum
 Key forces acting
 Figure 1.1. Investors continue to discriminate strongly across euro area sovereign bonds
 Figure 1.2. It is relatively expensive to insure unsecured bank debt against default
 Figure 1.3. Aggregate financial conditions have improved this year
 Figure 1.4. Business confidence has tended to stabilise or improve Figure 1.5. The implied volatility of share prices has moderatedFigure 1.6. Recent trends in new car registrations diverge across regions
 Box 1.1. Cross-country progress in private sector deleveraging
 Debt indicators in the private sector
 Figure 1.7. House prices are falling in real terms in many countries
 Table 1.2. House price-to-rent ratios remain high in some countries
 Figure 1.8. Oil prices are high
 Table 1.3. Effects of an oil price increase on GDP and inflation --
Survey of recent estimates
 The near-term projection
 Box 1.2. Policy and other assumptions underlying the projections Figure 1.9. Underlying inflation is likely to remain subduedTable 1.4. OECD labour market conditions are diverging
 Figure 1.10. Considerable labour market slack is set to persist
 Box 1.3. Using Okun's law to track recent cyclical developments
 Gauging spare capacity using Okun's law
 Figure 1.11. Progress in reducing global imbalances has stalled
 Table 1.5. World trade is set to strengthen, but imbalances remain
 Figure 1.12. Financial account related risk factors to financial stability
 Tackling imbalances in the euro area
 Figure 1.13. Euro area unit labour costs have begun to adjust Figure 1.14. Changes in euro area countries domestic demand and trade balances 2009-13Box 1.4. Challenges in implementing the new budgetary rules in the European Union
 Most binding European Union fiscal rules under stylised assumptions
 Policies in the main projection
 Table 1.6. Fiscal positions will improve only slowly
 Figure 1.15. Size and duration of consolidation episodes in the OECD area since the 1980s
 Figure 1.16. Output gaps and non-performing loans
 Bibliography
 Chapter 2. Developments in Individual OECD Countries
 United States
 Japan
 Euro Area
 Germany
 France
 Italy United KingdomCanada
 Australia
 Austria
 Belgium
 Chile
 Czech Republic
 Denmark
 Estonia
 Finland
 Greece
 Hungary
 Iceland
 Ireland
 Israel
 Korea
 Luxembourg
 Mexico
 Netherlands
 New Zealand
 Norway
 Poland
 Portugal
 Slovak Republic
 Slovenia
 Spain
 Sweden
 Switzerland
 Turkey
 Chapter 3. Developments in Selected Non-member Economies
 Brazil
 China
 India
 Indonesia
 Russian Federation
 South Africa
 Chapter 4. Medium and Long-term Scenarios for Global Growth and Imbalances
 Introduction and summary
 A new modelling framework based on conditional convergence