OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2007 Issue 2: December No. 82 - Volume 2007 Issue 2 (SANS COLL - OCDE)

Table of Contents
Summary of projections
Editorial: Dealing with Risks
Chapter 1. General assessment of the Macroeconomic S
ituation
	Overview
		Table 1.1. The expansion should ease somewhat
	Recent developments
		Box 1.1. A chronology of the financial market turmoil
		Figure 1.1. Financial market turmoil has eased but only somewhat
		Table 1.2. Real house prices are high
		Figure 1.2. Real housing investment is slowing in most countries
		Figure 1.3. The upswing in housing markets has been highly correlated across countries
		Figure 1.4. Commodity prices have been rising
		Figure 1.5. Growth has so far been resilient
		Box 1.2. The influence of India on the global economy compared to that of China
		Table 1.3. Labour markets have remained strong
		Table 1.4. Wage developments remain moderate
	Forces shaping the outlook and associated risks
		Figure 1.6. Various measures of risk
		Figure 1.7. Banks are tightening credit conditions
		Figure 1.8. Housing investment is at ten-year highs in many countries
		Box 1.3. Projecting housing investment
		Figure 1.9. Increased crude oil demand since 1995 is driven by non-OECD
		Figure 1.10. OECD merchandise exports to oil-exporting countries
		Table 1.5. The effect of a $10 per barrel increase in oil prices
		Box 1.4. What is driving food commodity prices?
		Figure 1.11. Effective exchange rates
		Figure 1.12. Estimated reserve accumulation (excluding gold)
		Box 1.5. Sovereign wealth funds
	Growth prospects
		Table 1.6. Short-term growth prospects
		Figure 1.13. Confidence is softening
		Box 1.6. Policy and other assumptions underlying the projections
		Table 1.7. Rebalancing of demand is under way
		Table 1.8. World trade supports growth while external imbalances remain large
	Challenges for macroeconomic policy
		Figure 1.14. The direction of policy rates has begun to diverge
		Figure 1.15. Unemployment gaps have closed in most countries
		Box 1.7. Gauging the NAIRU
		Figure 1.16. Headline and underlying inflation measures
		Figure 1.17. Fiscal balances improved between 2003 and 2007
		Figure 1.18. Most of the improvement in current revenues came from corporate taxes
		Table 1.9. Fiscal consolidation is stalling
	Appendix 1.A1. 
An evaluation of OECD growth projections for the G7 economies
	Methodology
	Main findings
		Figure 1.19. Economic Outlook projections and actual GDP growth
		Table 1.10. Economic Outlook G7 projection errors, 1991-2006
	Putting the results in perspective
chapter 2. Developments in Individual OECD Countries and Selected Non-member E
conomies
	United States
	Japan
	Euro area
	Germany
	France
	Italy
	United Kingdom
	Canada
	Australia
	Austria
	Belgium
	Czech Republic
	Denmark
	Finland
	Greece
	Hungary
	Iceland
	Ireland
	Korea
	Luxembourg
	Mexico
	Netherlands
	New Zealand
	Norway
	Poland
	Portugal
	Slovak Republic
	Spain
	Sweden
	Switzerland
	Trukey
	Brazil
	China
	India
	Russian Federation
Chapter 3. Corporate Saving and Investment: Recent Trends and P
rospects
	Introduction and summary of the main results
		Figure 3.1. OECD corporate net lending
		Figure 3.2. Change in net lending: a global perspective
		Table 3.1. Contributions to increase OECD corporate net lending over period 2001-05
		Box 3.1. Corporate saving and investment in China
		Figure 3.3. Net lending of corporations
	The forces behind the increase in aggregate OECD corporate net lending
		Figure 3.4. OECD financial and non-financial corporate net lending
		Table 3.2. The effect of changes in the relative price of capital goods on investment-to-GDP ratios
		Figure 3.5. Gross fixed capital formation and foreign direct investment
	The forces shaping cross-country differences
		Figure 3.6. Main concepts used to describe corporate sector accounts
		Figure 3.7. Breakdown of the change in corporate gross saving (2001-05)
		Figure 3.8. Contribution of within and between sector effects to the change in the gross operating surplus (2001-04)
		Figure 3.9. Contribution of the sectors to the change in the gross operating surplus (2001-04)
		Table 3.3. Dividend payouts in various OECD countries
		Figure 3.10. Financial flows of non-financial corporations: selected items
	The future evolution of corporate net lending and its implications
		Box 3.2. The relationship of corporate net lending with other sectors
	Bibliography
Special chapters in recent issues of OECD Economic Outlook
Statistical Annex
	Note on a new forecasting freqiencies
	Country classification
	Weighting scheme for aggregate measures
	Irrevocable euro conversion rates
	National accounts reporting systems, base-years and latest data updates
	Annex Tables
		Demand and Output
			1. Real GDP
			2. Nominal GDP
			3. Real private consumption expenditure
			4. Real public consumption expenditure
			5. Real total gross fixed capital formation
			6. Real gross private non-residential fixed capital formation
			7. Real gross private residential fixed capital formation
			8. Real total domestic demand
			9. Foreign balance contributions to changes in real GDP
			10. Output gaps
		Wages, Costs, Unemployment and Inflation
			11. Compensation per employee in the private sector
			12. Labour productivity for the total economy
			13. Unemployment rates: commonly used definitions
			14. Standardised unemployment rates
			15. Labour force, employment and unemployment
			16. GDP deflators
			17. Private consumption deflators
			18. Consumer price indices
			19. Oil and other primary commodity markets
		Key Supply-Side data
			20. Employment rates, participation rates and labour force
			21. Potential GDP, employment and capital stock
			22. Structural unemployment and unit labor costs
		Saving
			23. Household saving rates
			24. Gross national saving
		Fiscal Balances and Public Indebteness
			25. General government total outlays
			26. General government total tax and non-tax receipts
			27. General government financial balances
			28. Cyclically-adjusted general government balances
			29. General government primary balances
			30. Cyclically-adjusted general government primary balances
			31. General government net debt interest payments
			32. General government gross financial liabilities
			33. General government net financial liabilities
		Interest Rates and Exchange Rates
			34. Short-term interest rates
			35. Long-term interest rates
			36. Nominal exchange rates (vis-à-vis the US dollar)
			37. Effective exchange rates
		External Trade and Payments
			38. Export volumes of goods and services
			39. Import volumes of goods and services
			40. Export prices of goods and services
			41. Import prices of goods and services
			42. Competitive positions: relative consumer prices
			43. Competitive positions: relative unit labour costs
			44. Export performance for total goods and services
			45. Shares in world exports and imports
			46. Geographical structure of world trade growth
			47. Trade balances for goods and services
			48. Investment income, net
			49. Total transfers, net
			50. Current account balances
			51. Current account balances as a percentage of GDP
			52. Structure of current account balances of major world regions
			53. Export market growth in goods and services
			54. Import penetration
		Other background Data
			55. Quarterly demand and output projections
			56. Quarterly price, cost and unemployment projections
			57. Contributions to changes in real GDP in OECD countries
			58. Household wealth and indebtedness
			59. House prices
			60. House prices ratios
			61. Central government financial balances
			62. Maastricht definition of general government gross public debt
			63. Monetary and credit aggregates: recent trends