Natural Gas and Geopolitics: From 1970 to 2040

Cover......Page 1
Half-title......Page 3
Title......Page 5
Copyright......Page 6
Contents......Page 7
Figures......Page 9
Tables......Page 12
Boxes......Page 14
Contributors......Page 15
Foreword......Page 17
Acknowledgments......Page 19
Acronyms and abbreviations......Page 22
Part I Introduction and context......Page 29
1 Introduction to the study......Page 31
A Primer: From Local to Global Markets for Gas......Page 33
A.Global Business: Pipelines and LNG......Page 36
The focus of this book......Page 43
Conclusion......Page 49
REFERENCES......Page 50
Part II Historical case studies......Page 53
2 Introduction to the historical case studies: research questions, methods, and case selection......Page 55
Questions to Answer......Page 56
Selection of Cases......Page 58
Methods......Page 70
Appendix: The Universe of Cases......Page 72
REFERENCES......Page 76
Introduction......Page 77
Post-Independence Energy Policy in Algeria......Page 79
Italy\'s Early Move to Natural Gas......Page 82
The Transmed Gas Pipeline......Page 85
Pipeline vs. LNG......Page 86
1977 Contract......Page 88
Transit Risks......Page 91
Financing......Page 94
Supply Risks......Page 95
Offtake Risk......Page 96
Pricing Dispute......Page 97
1983 Contract......Page 102
The Gas Imperative for Spain in the 1970s......Page 104
Spanish Pipeline and LNG Import Proposals in the 1970s and Early 1980s......Page 105
Regional Political Tensions Prevent the Gibraltar Pipeline......Page 106
Domestic Political Economy and Energy Policy in Spain......Page 108
Conclusions......Page 111
Epilogue: Italian and Spanish Gas Import Projects Through the 1990s......Page 114
REFERENCES......Page 117
Introduction......Page 119
Development of the Arun and Asian LNG Market......Page 120
Profile of Pertamina......Page 130
Political and Economic Context......Page 132
Regional, NGO, and Corporate/MNC Energy Initiatives in the 1970s......Page 136
Alternatives......Page 138
The Demise of the California Connection......Page 139
Domestic Distribution......Page 141
The Singapore Alternative......Page 143
Conclusions......Page 147
Books and articles......Page 148
Journals and newspapers......Page 149
Introduction......Page 150
Soviet Energy Strategy and the Dash to Gas......Page 154
Gazprom: a State within a State......Page 165
Blue Stream......Page 171
Routes through Ukraine......Page 173
Belarus Connector......Page 175
Alternative Projects......Page 182
Bypassing Ukraine......Page 183
Boosting Ukraine\'s Exports......Page 186
The Baltic Pipeline......Page 188
Analysis and Summary......Page 190
REFERENCES......Page 194
Introduction......Page 197
YABOG (Bolivia-Argentinia) Pipeline: 1972......Page 199
Argentine Gas to Chile circa 1997......Page 204
The \"pipeline wars\"......Page 208
Brazilian Gas Import Options (1997-1999)......Page 212
The Argentine Option......Page 214
GasBol......Page 215
Conclusion......Page 223
Epilogue......Page 224
EIB......Page 226
REFERENCES......Page 227
Introduction......Page 230
Turkmenistan\'s Economic and Political Life......Page 233
Overview of Turkmenistan\'s Gas Industry and the Legal Regime that Governs It......Page 237
Turkmenistan - Iran - Turkey......Page 240
The Trans-Afghan Pipeline......Page 245
The Transport of Turkmen Gas: Existing Alternatives......Page 250
Conclusion......Page 254
Appendix......Page 256
REFERENCES......Page 259
Introduction......Page 262
Qatar: From Independence to Oil Bust (1971-1983)......Page 266
Gas Exports in the 1980s: A.Missed Opportunity......Page 268
Early Japanese Interest in Qatargas......Page 270
Domestic Production and Pipeline Options......Page 272
Qatargas Makes a Comeback......Page 274
Mobil to the Rescue......Page 278
Project Economics......Page 279
Financing......Page 281
Price Revisited......Page 283
GCC Pipelines......Page 285
A \"Peace Pipeline\" to Israel?......Page 289
An LNG Boom......Page 290
Conclusion......Page 291
APPENDIX......Page 293
REFERENCES......Page 294
Introduction......Page 296
Historical Background......Page 298
The Competitive Context and the Alternative Projects......Page 304
Train 1......Page 309
Technical......Page 311
Marketing and Shipping......Page 315
Project Structure......Page 319
Financing......Page 326
Government Agreement......Page 328
Marketing and Shipping......Page 330
Project Structure......Page 333
Government Agreement......Page 335
Nigeria LNG......Page 336
Venezuela......Page 342
Conclusion......Page 344
REFERENCES......Page 345
Introduction......Page 347
The Role of the State in Gas Trade......Page 348
The Role of the State in Gas Supply......Page 350
The Role of the State in \"Creating\" Gas Demand......Page 353
Contracting and Security of Supply in the Changing Gas World......Page 358
The \"Gas Weapon\"?......Page 359
Security of Supply......Page 360
Security of Supply and Transit Countries......Page 364
Credibility of Long-Term Commitments and the Management of Financial Risk......Page 366
Private Solutions to the Commitment Problem......Page 372
A Role for External Institutions?......Page 374
Implications for Gas Security......Page 376
Conclusions......Page 378
REFERENCES......Page 381
Part III International gas trade economics......Page 383
Introduction......Page 385
The Baker Institute World Gas Trade Model......Page 386
Market structure in the BIWGTM......Page 387
Demand for Natural Gas......Page 388
Capital Cost of Resource Development......Page 398
Transport Links and the World Natural Gas Market......Page 401
Required Returns on Investments......Page 408
The Base Case Solution......Page 409
Concluding Remarks......Page 416
Estimating the Demand for Natural Gas......Page 417
Estimating the Capital Costs and O&M Costs for Natural Gas......Page 421
Estimating LNG Shipping Costs......Page 422
Estimating Pipeline Capital Costs......Page 423
REFERENCES......Page 434
Introduction......Page 435
Calculating Risk-Adjusted Returns......Page 437
The Reference Case Solution (Adjusting for Risk)......Page 441
Political Scenario: No Pipelines from Russia to Northeast Asia......Page 445
Economic Scenario 1: Higher Chinese Demand Growth......Page 451
Economic Scenario 2: Alternative Technology......Page 458
Concluding Remarks......Page 462
Appendix......Page 464
REFERENCES......Page 466
Introduction......Page 467
The Distribution of Gas Reserves and Exports......Page 469
Security of Supply: Geographic Location......Page 473
The Potential for a Gas Cartel......Page 474
Lessons from Oil Markets......Page 475
Modeling OPEC as the Dominant-Firm Model: Applications to OPEC and a Potential Gas-OPEC......Page 478
Prospects for a Gas-OPEC......Page 481
Conclusion......Page 489
REFERENCES......Page 490
Part IV Implications......Page 493
14 Conclusions......Page 495
Emergence of an Integrated, Global Gas Market......Page 497
New Market Structures and the Changing Roles for Governments......Page 500
Global Gas and Security of Supply......Page 505
Risks to the Greater Gas Vision......Page 507
REFERENCES......Page 511
Appendix: technical notes......Page 512
Index......Page 516