NATO’s Expansion After the Cold War: Geopolitics and Impacts for International Security

Acknowledgement
Contents
Abbreviations
1 Introduction: A New Bipolarisation in Europe
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2 The NATO Post-Cold War Enlargement: Realist and Neorealist Approaches
	2.1 Realism and Neorealism as the Basic Theoretical Inspiration
	2.2 Three Great Neorealists
		2.2.1 Kenneth Waltz
		2.2.2 Stephen Walt
		2.2.3 John Mearsheimer
	2.3 The NATO Post-Cold War Enlargement as an Expansion Sui Generis
		2.3.1 Expansion as the Central Concept of This Book
		2.3.2 Target as a Key Concept of the Neorealist Approach to the Process of Expansion
		2.3.3 NATO Expansion as a Security Dilemma
		2.3.4 NATO Expansion as a Greedy Behaviour?
		2.3.5 Three Stages of NATO Expansion
		2.3.6 An “Expansion by Invitation”
		2.3.7 Balancing Theory and Its Importance for the Study of NATO Expansion
	2.4 Positive and Negative Peace
	2.5 Research Questions
	2.6 Methodology
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3 From Hamburg and Munich to Tallinn and Burgas
	3.1 The First Reflexions About the Expansion of NATO Under the Presidency of G. Bush Senior
		3.1.1 The Most Important Open Declarations
		3.1.2 The Most Important Secret Negotiations
		3.1.3 Key Common Denominators of the Proponents of the TLDA Strategy
		3.1.4 Between Consistency and Hypocrisy
	3.2 The End of the USSR and Its Consequences
	3.3 Bill Clinton as a Political Guarantor of the Second Wave of NATO Expansion
		3.3.1 Supporters of NATO Expansion
		3.3.2 Sceptical and Critical Authors
	3.4 The PfP as the First Step of NATO Expansion
		3.4.1 Key Important Milestones
		3.4.2 The First Round of NATO Expansion in the Light of Kenneth Waltz
	3.5 George W. Bush as a Political Guarantor of the Second Wave of NATO Expansion
		3.5.1 The Zero-Sum Game
		3.5.2 The Baltic States as a New North-Eastern Frontier of NATO
		3.5.3 The Black Sea Area as a New South-Eastern Border of NATO
	3.6 Russian Internal Balancing and Its Consequences
		3.6.1 Historical Aspects
		3.6.2 Russian Balancing Face to Face with the First Two Rounds of NATO Expansion
		3.6.3 The Russian A2/AD Systems
		3.6.4 Russian A2/AD Systems in the Light of Neorealism
		3.6.5 A Security Controversy Between NATO and the RF
		3.6.6 A Clash of Perceptions and New Spirals of Security Dilemmas
	3.7 Conclusion
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4 From the War Against Georgia to the Annexation of the Crimea and the Following Increase of Military Tension
	4.1 From Munich 2007 to Georgia 2008
		4.1.1 The First Negativist Speech by Putin
		4.1.2 The Five Days War Between the RF and Georgia and Its Consequences
		4.1.3 Doctrinal Reactions of the Russian Operational Realists
	4.2 Basic Differences Between NATO and the RF After the Second Wave of the NATO Expansion
		4.2.1 External vs. Internal Balancing
		4.2.2 Virulent Reproaches of Two Presidents
		4.2.3 The Annexation of the Crimean Peninsula and Its Consequences
		4.2.4 Russian Doctrinal Documents Approved After the Annexation of Crimea
	4.3 The Academic Debate After the Annexation of the Crimea
		4.3.1 The Strongly Critical Authors
		4.3.2 The Non-Critical Authors
		4.3.3 Authors with Impartial Attitudes
	4.4 The Conclusion of the Chapter
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5 The Growing Militarisation of the Baltic and Black Sea Areas After the End of the Cold War
	5.1 The Smoothly Growing Militarisation After the End of the Cold War
		5.1.1 The U.S. NGSPP as a Forerunner of a Future Expansion
		5.1.2 The Baltic Military After the End of the Cold War
		5.1.3 The Black Sea Military After the End of the Cold War
	5.2 The Doctrinal Development of NATO Before the Annexation of Crimea
		5.2.1 Lisbon 2010
	5.3 The New Eastern Frontier of NATO
		5.3.1 NATO in the Black Sea Area
		5.3.2 NATO in Romania
	5.4 Military Consequences of the Russian Annexation of Crimea
		5.4.1 The European Reassurance/Deterrence Initiative
		5.4.2 Reactions of NATO
		5.4.3 Reactions of the New Member States of NATO
		5.4.4 Military Exercises After 2014
		5.4.5 The Russian Exercise Zapad 2017
		5.4.6 Military Incidents Between the RF and Western Countries
	5.5 And Whatʼs Next
		5.5.1 Stoltenberg’s Doctrinal Speeches
		5.5.2 NATO’s New Strategy of “Stability Generation”
		5.5.3 Rand 2019
	5.6 Conclusion of the Chapter
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6 American Military Doctrines of the New Generation
	6.1 Key Concepts
		6.1.1 The Basic Concepts of This Book
		6.1.2 The International and Military Context of the US Doctrinal Documents Approved Between 2012 and 2015
	6.2 From the NSS 2010 to the JCRA
		6.2.1 The Grand Strategy and Security Culture of Barack Obama
		6.2.2 NSS 2010
		6.2.3 Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for Twenty-First Century Defense
		6.2.4 The Joint Operational Access Concept (JOAC) of January 2012
		6.2.5 Air-Sea Battle, May 2013
		6.2.6 The Joint Concept for Entry Operations (JCEO) of April 2014
		6.2.7 The Joint Concept for Rapid Aggregation (JCRA) of May 2015
	6.3 The Conclusion of the Chapter
		6.3.1 The Primordial Importance of the Bay of Finland
		6.3.2 Military Exercises and Growing Tension
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7 Conclusion: Waiting for a New Gorbachev and for a New Reagan
	7.1 NATO Expansion in the Light of the Key Pillars of Realism
	7.2 NATO Expansion in the Light of the Key Pillars of Neorealism
	7.3 Likudisation as an Inspiration for the NATO Expansion?
	7.4 A Clash of Two Contradictory Narratives
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