Models for infectious human diseases: their structure and relation to data

CONTENTS......Page 6
Introduction......Page 12
PARTICIPANTS......Page 16
NON-PARTICIPANT CONTRIBUTORS......Page 23
Part 1 Transmissible diseases with long development times and vaccination strategies......Page 26
Overview of Data Analysis: Diseases with Long Development Times......Page 28
HPV and Cervical Cancer......Page 53
An Age-structured Model for Measles Vaccination......Page 63
Invited Discussion......Page 82
Invited Discussion......Page 87
Piece-wise Constant Models to Estimate Ageand Time-specific Incidence of Toxoplasmosis from Ageand Time-specific Seroprevalence......Page 92
New Methodology for AIDS Back Calculation......Page 97
Imperfect HIV Vaccines, the Consequences for Epidemic Control and Clinical Trials......Page 99
Feasibility of Prophylactic HIV Vaccine Trials: Some Statistical Issues......Page 101
The Design of Immunisation Programmes against Hepatitis B Virus in Developing Countries......Page 108
The Effect of Different Mixing Patterns on Vaccination Programs......Page 111
Vaccination in Age Structured Populations I: The Reproduction Number......Page 115
Vaccination in Age Structured Populations II: Optimal Strategies......Page 127
Part 2 Dynamics of immunity......Page 140
Evolutionary Dynamics of HIV Infections......Page 142
Statistical Models for Analysis of Longitudinal CD4 Data......Page 152
Some Mathematical and Statistical Issues in Assessing the Evidence for Acquired Immunity to Schistosomiasis......Page 164
Virulence and Transmissibility in P. falciparum Malaria......Page 185
Invited Discussion......Page 206
Invited Discussion......Page 209
Invited Discussion......Page 214
Lifespan of Human T Lymphocytes......Page 216
Diversity and Virulence Thresholds in AIDS......Page 218
Statistical Analysis of AZT Effect on CD4 Cell Counts in HIV Disease......Page 219
Modelling Progression of HIV Infection: Staging and the Chicago MACS Cohort......Page 222
The Interpretation of Immunoepidemiological Data for Helminth Infections......Page 225
The Distribution of Malaria Parasites in the Mosquito Vector: Consequences for Assessing Infection Intensity in the Field......Page 229
When Susceptible and Infective Human Hosts are not Equally Attractive to Mosquitoes: a Generalization of the Ross Malaria Model......Page 231
The Dynamics of Blood Stage Malaria: Modelling Strain Specific and Strain Transcending Immunity......Page 235
Part 3 Population heterogeneity (mixing)......Page 238
Modeling Heterogeneous Mixing in Infectious Disease Dynamics......Page 240
Behaviour Change and Non-Homogeneous Mixing......Page 264
Sources and Use of Empirical Observations to Characterise Networks of Sexual Behaviour......Page 278
Invited Discussion......Page 288
Invited Discussion......Page 290
Per-contact Probabilities of Heterosexual Transmission of HIV Estimated from Partner Study Data......Page 296
Heterosexual Spread of HIV with Biased Sexual Partner Selection......Page 299
Dynamic Simulation of Sexual Partner Networks: which Network Properties are Important in Sexually Transmitted Disease (STD) Epid......Page 303
The Spread of an STD on a Dynamic Network of Sexual Contacts......Page 306
Network Measures for Epidemiology......Page 308
Spatial Heterogeneity and the Spread of Infectious Diseases......Page 311
Data Analysis for Estimating Risk Factor Effects using Transmission Models......Page 315
Homosexual Role Behaviour and the Spread of HIV......Page 317
Homogeneity Tests for Groupings of AIDS Patient Classifications......Page 322
Risk Factors for Heterosexual Transmission of HIV......Page 326
in the Transmission of AIDS......Page 329
The Saturating Contact Rate in Epidemic Models......Page 333
A Liapunov Function Approach to Computing......Page 336
Stochastic Models for the Eradication of Poliomyelitis: Minimum Population Size for Polio Virus Persistence......Page 340
Part 4 Consequences of treatment interventions......Page 354
Conflicts between the Individual and Communities in Treatment and Control......Page 356
The Design and Analysis of HIV Clinical Trials......Page 369
A Theory of Population Dynamics Used for Improving Control of Viral Diseases: AZT Chemotherapy and Measles Vaccination Policy......Page 373
The ONCHOSIM Model and its Use in Decision Support for River Blindness Control......Page 385
Invited Discussion......Page 406
Invited Discussion......Page 411
Hydatid Disease......Page 413
Vaccines and Herd Immunity: Consequences for Vaccine Evaluation......Page 417
An Epidemiological Approach to the Evaluation of Disease Control Strategies for Intestinal Helminth Infections: an Age Structure......Page 420
The Control of Directly Transmitted Infections by Pulse Vaccination: Concepts and Preliminary Studies......Page 424
Operational Models for the Prevention of Blindness......Page 427
AIDS: Modelling and Predicting......Page 432
T-Lymphocytes for the Natural History of HIV Infection......Page 464
Invited Discussion......Page 485
Short Term Projections by Dynamic Modelling in Large Populations: a Case Study in France and The Netherlands......Page 489
Bayesian Prediction of AIDS cases and CD200 Cases in Scotland......Page 491
Some Scenario Analyses for the HIV Epidemic in Italy......Page 495
Relating a Transmission Model of AIDS Spread to Data: Some International Comparisons......Page 498
Estimation of the Rate of HIV Diagnosis in HIV-Infected Individuals......Page 502
Effects of AIDS Public Information on HIV Infections among Gay Men......Page 505
Changes in Sexual Behaviour and HIV Control......Page 508
The Time to AIDS in a Cohort of Homosexual Men......Page 510
Operational Models for the Care of HIV and AIDS Patients......Page 513