Mission Oriented Effectiveness Evaluation and Optimization of Complex Systems

MISSION ORIENTED EFFECTIVENESSEVALUATION AND OPTIMIZATIONOF COMPLEX SYSTEMS
MISSION ORIENTED EFFECTIVENESSEVALUATION AND OPTIMIZATIONOF COMPLEX SYSTEMS
Contents
Preface
Acknowledgments
Chapter 1Overview of Effectiveness Evaluation
	1.1. Related Research
	1.2. Main Problems and the Trends
	1.3. Significance of SoS Effectiveness Evaluation
Chapter 2Basic Concepts
	2.1. EffectivenessMeasurement
		2.1.1. Concept of Effectiveness
		2.1.2. Effectiviness Measurement Analysis
	2.2. System Operational Capability
		2.2.1. Definition
		2.2.2. Operational Effectiveness and Operational Capability
	2.3. Effectiveness Index
	2.4. Process of System Effectiveness Evaluation
	2.5. System Effectiveness Evaluation Method
		2.5.1. Classical Effectiveness Evaluation Method
			(1) Probability method
			(2) Exponent method
			(3) ADC method
			(4) Monte Carlo method
			(5) Lanchester function method
			(6) System dynamics method
			(7) System effectiveness analysis
			(8) Influence diagram modeling and analysis
			(9) Analytic hierarchy process
			(10) Petri network
			(11) Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation
			(12) Simulation method
			(13) Meta-synthesis
		2.5.2. New Method of System Effectiveness Evaluation
			(1) Computational experiment method
			(2) Exploratory analysis
			(3) Data farming and data mining technology
			(4) Intelligent analysis technology based on simulation big data
Chapter 3Construction of Evaluation IndexSystem
	3.1. Selection Principle of Evaluation Indexes
	3.2. Construction of Index System
	3.3. Construction of Evaluation Index System
		3.3.1. Construction Model of Evaluation Index System
		3.3.2. Selection of Construction Pattern
		3.3.3. The Construction Process of Hierarchy Evaluation Index System
			(1) The Decomposition of Operational Capability Indexes
			(2) The Decomposition of Operational Suitability
		3.3.4. Index System and Optimization
			(1) Index System
			(2) Index System Validity
			(3) Stability and Reliability of Index System
		3.3.5. Case Study
			(1) Preparation Conditions of the Effectiveness
			(2) Select the Construction Pattern of Corresponding Evaluation Index SystemBased on Evaluation Conditions
			(3) Instantiation Based on the Selected Construction Pattern
			(4) Design the Detailed Evaluation Index System
				(i) The operational situation
				(ii) The operational suitability
				(iii) The formation mobility
				(iv) The reconnaissance and early warning capability
				(v) The command and control capability
				(vi) The electronic countermeasures capability
				(vii) The counterattack capability
	3.4. Evaluation Index System Construction
		3.4.1. Characteristics of SoS Effectiveness of Evaluation
			(1) Emergence Effectiveness
			(2) Structure Evolution
			(3) Relativity of the Capability
		3.4.2. Index System Framework
			(1) The Index System Framework of Effectiveness Evaluation
			(2) The Effectiveness Evaluation Index of Component System
			(3) The Measures of Task Effectiveness (MOTE)
			(4) The Measures of Emergence Effectiveness (MOEE)
			(5) The Measures Networked Effectiveness (MONE)
		3.4.3. Correlation Analysis of Efficiency Indexes
			(1) The Correlation between MOTE and MOEE
			(2) The Correlation between MOEE and MONE
		3.4.4. Case Study
			(1) Modeling of Formation Anti-Submarine Networked Operational Model
				(i) Node modeling
				(ii) Edge modeling
			(2) Index System Construction of SoS Operational Effectiveness
				(i) Establishment of effectiveness index system for component-level sub-system
					(a) Index system of the detection links effectiveness evaluation
					(b) Index system of information upload link effectiveness evaluation
					(c) Index system of decision link effectiveness evaluation
					(d) Index system of the impact link effectiveness evaluation
				(ii) SoS mission effectiveness index
				(iii) SoS network structure characteristic index system
				(iv) SoS emergence indexes
			(3) Dynamic Index Network Based on the Correlation Analysis of Time Series
			(4) Key Indexes Mining Based on Community Analysis and Clustering
				(i) The community algorithm based on the shortest path
				(ii) The characteristic index set based on PCA
	3.5. Construction ofMission-OrientedEvaluation Index System
		3.5.1. Construction of OperationalMission Profile
			(1) Basic Concepts of Operational Mission Profile
				(i) Mission profile
				(ii) Meta-mission
			(2) Modeling of Mission Process
		3.5.2. Mission Effectiveness Evaluation Index System Based on Process-Focused Thinking Method
		3.5.3. Case Study
			(1) Requirement of Anti-Submarine Mission
				(i) Hydrological conditions of sea battle field
				(ii) Initial situation
				(iii) Action rules
			(2) TypicalMission Scenario
			(3) Operational Activity
			(4) Effectiveness Index System Based on the PFT
				(i) Navigation preparation
				(ii) Navigation phase
				(iii) Standby phase
				(iv) Operational phase
				(v) Back phase
	3.6. Selection of Effectiveness Evaluation Index
		3.6.1. Indexes Selection Based on Multiple Correlation Analysis
			(1) The Cyclic Screening of Multiple Correlation Coefficient Index
			(2) The Index Selection Based on the Variation Coefficient
		3.6.2. Dynamic Index Selection Based on Sensitivity Analysis
		3.6.3. Index Selection Based on Kernel Principal Component Analysis
Chapter 4Mathematical Modeling ofEffectiveness Index
	4.1. Basic Index Measurement
		4.1.1. Index Dimensionless Based on Utility Function
			(1) The Application of Utility Function in the Index Dimensionless
				(i) Basic utility function
				(ii) The utility function of index classification
					(a) The utility function of mission success index
					(b) The utility function of mission failure index
					(c) The utility function of proportion index
					(d) The utility function of time index
					(e) The utility function of utilization rate index
		4.1.2. Index Dimensionless Based on Membership
			(i) The membership of qualitative index
			(ii) The membership of quantitative index
				(a) Fuzzy quantification of positive index
				(b) Fuzzy quantification of negative index
				(c) Fuzzy model of moderate index
	4.2. Mathematical Modeling of System Effectiveness Index
		4.2.1. System Capability Index Modeling
			(1) FormulaMethod
			(2) Index AggregationMethod
				(i) Weighted sum aggregation
				(ii) The weighted product aggregation
				(iii) Nonlinear aggregation of index system
			(3) PredictionMethod
		4.2.2. System Effectiveness Index Modeling
	4.3. Mathematical Modeling of SoS Effectiveness Index
		4.3.1. Modeling of Networked Evaluation Index
			(i) Network natural connectivity
			(ii) Classification degree and distribution
			(iii) Subnet clustering coefficient
		4.3.2. Modeling of Emergence Evaluation Index
			(1) Inherited Emergence
			(2) None-Inherited Emergence
			(3) Network Connectivity of SoS
			(4) Invulnerability
			(5) Elasticity of the Operational SoS
			(6) Adaptability
			(7) Reasoning Capability of Battlefield Situation
			(8) Collaborative EarlyWarning Capability
			(9) Collaborative Attack Capability
			(10) Survivability
Chapter 5 Classical Method of Effectiveness Evaluation
	5.1. Effectiveness Evaluation Based on AHP
		5.1.1. Basic Principles of AHP
			(1) Establish a Hierarchical Structure Model
			(2) Construct the Judgment
			(3) Single Layer Sorting and Consistency Checking
			(4) Random Consistency Checking Index
			(5) Total Layer Sorting and Consistency Checking
		5.1.2. Effectiveness Evaluation Based on AHP
		5.1.3. Case Study
	5.2. The Comprehensive Effectiveness Evaluation Based on ANP
		5.2.1. The Basic Principle of ANP
			(1) Construction of the Supermatrix
			(2) Construction of Weighted Supermatrix
			(3) Construction of Limit Supermatrix
				(i) Relative ranking (or influence ranking)
				(ii) Absolute rank
			(4) Weights of ANP
				(i) The element supermatrix
				(ii) The weighted matrix of the element group
				(iii) The weighted supermatrix
				(iv) Solving the weights of the indexes
				(v) The total target weight of the elements
		5.2.2. Effectiveness Evaluation Based on ANP
			(1) Construction and optimization of networked index system
				(i) Preliminary scheme of the evaluation index system
				(ii) Index screening based on Delphi
				(iii) Correlation analysis of indexes
				(iv) Design the index system
			(2) Supermatrix Based on Multi-Information Fusion
				(i) Collecting the experts experience data
				(ii) Basic evaluation index of dynamic measurement
				(iii) Multi-evaluation source data
				(iv) Construction of (weighted) supermatrix
			(3) Effectiveness Evaluation Model Based on Index Weight
				(i) Weighted sum method
				(ii) Power exponent method
		5.2.3. Case Study
			(1) Background
			(2) Design of Networked Evaluation Index System
			(3) Solution of Networked Evaluation Index System
			(4) Power Exponent Evaluation Model
	5.3. Comprehensive Effectiveness Evaluation Based on FactorAnalysis
		5.3.1. Basic Principles of Factor Analysis
			(1) Basic Principles of Correlation Analysis of Evaluation Index
		5.3.2. Efficiency Evaluation Based on Factor Analysis
		5.3.3. Case Study
	5.4. Comprehensive Effectiveness Evaluation Based on ADC
		5.4.1. Basic Principles of ADC
		5.4.2. The Effectiveness Evaluation Based on ADC
		5.4.3. Case Study
			(1) Background
			(2) The construction of the index system
			(3) Index Analysis
				(i) The availability vector A
				(ii) The dependability matrix D
				(iii) The capability matrix C
				(iv) Case study
	5.5. Comprehensive Effectiveness Evaluation Based on CloudModel
		5.5.1. Basic Theory of Cloud Model
			(1) The Concept of Cloud
			(2) The Digital Features of the Cloud
			(3) Gaussian Cloud and Comprehensive Cloud
		5.5.2. Effectiveness Evaluation Based on Cloud Model
			(1) Determination of the Evaluation Purpose
			(2) Analysis of the Effectiveness Factors
			(3) Construction of the Evaluation Index System
			(4) Calculation of the State Value of Each Index
			(5) Evaluation of the Single Effectiveness
			(6) Evaluation of the Comprehensive Effectiveness
			(7) Output of the Evaluation Result
		5.5.3. Case Study
			(1) Influencing Factors of the Effectiveness Evaluation
			(2) Construction of Index System
			(3) DeterminationWeight Cloud of the Index
			(4) Determination of the Comprehensive Operational Effectiveness Cloud
	5.6. Intelligent Effectiveness Evaluation Based on MachineLearning
		5.6.1. Classical Machine Learning Algorithms
			(1) The Back Propagation (BP) Neural Network
			(2) The Support Vector Regression (SVR) Algorithm
			(3) The Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH)
			(4) The Deep Belief Network (DBN)
		5.6.2. Effectiveness Evaluation Based on Machine Learning
			(1) Effectiveness Evaluation Based on Machine Learning
			(2) Effectiveness Evaluation Based on Meta-Model
		5.6.3. Case Study
Chapter 6 Mission Oriented Effectiveness Evaluation
	6.1. Mission Based Effectiveness Evaluation
		6.1.1. Introduction
		6.1.2. Mission-Oriented Operation Effectiveness Evaluation Model
			(1) Activity Diagram of Mission-Oriented Operation
				(i) Sequential structure
				(ii) Selection structure
				(iii) Loop structure
				(iv) Branch structure
			(2) Data of Operational Effectiveness
				(i) Data of operational activity
				(ii) Transition probability labeling of activity diagram
			(3) Combination and Simplification of UML Activity Diagram
				(i) Recognition and combination of loop structure
				(ii) Recognition and combination of selection structures
				(iii) Recognition and combination of branch structure
			(4) Effectiveness Analysis of Virtual Combination Active Node
				(i) Sequence structure
				(ii) AND-merge structure
				(iii) OR-merge structure
				(iv) AND-branch structure
				(v) OR-branch structure
				(vi) Loop iteration structure
			(5) System Effectiveness Analysis of Loop
		6.1.3. Case Study
			(1) The Composition and Mission Flow
	6.2. Multi-Mission Effectiveness Evaluation Basedon Operation Loop
		6.2.1. Construction of Operation Loop Model
		6.2.2. Operation Loop Based Multi-Mission Effectiveness Evaluation
			(1) Description Nodes
				(i) Reconnaissance and surveillance node S
				(ii) Command and control node D
				(iii) Attack node I
				(iv) Objective node T
			(2) Edge Description and Modeling
				(i) Reconnaissance information sharing link (S!S)
				(ii) Reconnaissance information uploading link (S!D)
				(iii) Instruction uploading link (D!S)
				(iv) Command and control cooperation link (D!D)
				(v) Operational command issue link (D!I)
				(vi) Reconnaissance link (T !S)
				(vii) Attack link (I !T)
			(3) Operational Capability Evaluation of Single Operation Loop
			(4) Capability Evaluation of Multiple Operation Loops
				(i) Operational capability calculation
				(ii) Calculation of the number operation loops
				(iii) Multiple mission-oriented SoS evaluation
		6.2.3. Case Study
Chapter 7 Sensitivity of Operational Effectiveness
	7.1. Sensitivity Analysis Based on Range Analysis
		7.1.1. Principles
		7.1.2. Range Sensitivity Analysis Based on Agent Model
			(1) Construct Samples Set Based on the Effectiveness Index System
			(2) Construct Training Set Based on the Samples
			(3) Construct Agent Model
			(4) Sensitivity Analysis Based on Range Analysis
		7.1.3. Case Study
			(1) Selection of the Evaluation Indexes and the Influencing Factorson
			(2) Construction of the Training Set
			(3) Construction of the Agent Model
			(4) Sensitivity Based on Range Analysis
	7.2. Global Sensitivity Based on Sobol’s
		7.2.1. Basic Principle of the Sobol’s
		7.2.2. Sobol’s-Based System Effectiveness Sensitivity Analysis
		7.2.3. Case Study
Chapter 8 Contribution Effectiveness
	8.1. Basic Concept of Effectiveness Contribution
		8.1.1. Connotation and Classification
			(1) Requirement
			(2) Effectiveness Promotion of the Introduced Technology and Equipment
		8.1.2. Relationship among Contribution, Capability and Effectiveness
	8.2. Effectiveness Contribution Evaluation of SoS
		8.2.1.  Contribution Evaluation Based on Operational Effectiveness
			(1) Increment-Based Measurement
			(2) Ratio-Based Measurement
			(3) Satisfaction-Based Measurement
			(4) Effectiveness-Cost Ratio
		8.2.2. Systemic Framework based Contribution Rate Evaluation
		8.2.3. Case Study
Chapter 9Design, Evaluation and Optimizationof SoS
	9.1. Effectiveness-Based Design, Evaluation and OptimizationFramework
	9.2. Domain Model-Driven Design Methodology
		9.2.1. Overview of the SoS Engineering
		9.2.2. Domain Model for the SoS
		9.2.3. A Domain Model-Driven Design Methodology for SoS
			(1) Requirement Analysis
			(2) Operational Cabability Analysis
			(3) System Function Analysis
			(4) System Architecture Design
			(5) Human-Computer Interaction Design
			(6) Components Design
	9.3. Mission-Oriented Domain Model Driven SoS Modeling Platform
		9.3.1. Technology Architecture of Domain Model DrivenModeling Platform
		9.3.2. Main Functions of Domain Model DrivenModeling Platform
			(1) System Requirement Modeling Tool
			(2) System Function and Architecture Modeling Tool
			(3) Unified Human-Computer Interaction Design
			(4) Deployment Design and Integrated Assembly Tools
	9.4. Research and Implementation Complex SoS SimulationPlatform
		9.4.1. Overall Framework of SoS Simulation Platform
		9.4.2. Complex SoS Simulation Engine
			(1) System Management
			(2) CommunicationManagement
			(3) Component/Service Management
			(4) Object Management
			(5) Event Management
			(6) Time Management
			(7) Scene Management
			(8) Resource Management
		9.4.3. Topic Planning
		9.4.4. Scenario Edition
		9.4.5. Experiment Design
	9.5. Implementation of Effectiveness Evaluation and AnalysisPlatform
		9.5.1. Technology Architecture of the Evaluation Analysis Platform
			(1) Data Source
			(2) Data Processing
			(3) Algorithm Framework
			(4) Evaluation Analysis
		9.5.2. Implementation of the Evaluation Platform
			(1) Evaluation Scheme Construction
			(2) Evaluation Task
			(3) Data Configuration
			(4) Evaluation Analysis
			(5) Contribution Analysis
			(6) SoS Optimization
			(7) Model Base Management
			(8) System Management
	9.6. Mission-Oriented Complex System Design Optimization
		9.6.1. Problem Description
		9.6.2. Mission-Oriented Optimization of SoS
	9.7. Case Study
		9.7.1. Weapon System of Systems and Operation Scene
		9.7.2. OperationMission oriented Optimization Design
References
About the Authors
Index
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