Mandate Politics

Cover......Page 1
Half-title......Page 3
Title......Page 5
Copyright......Page 6
Contents......Page 7
List of Figures......Page 9
List of Tables......Page 11
Preface......Page 13
Acknowledgments......Page 17
1 A Single Time in a Single Place......Page 19
1.0.1 “Our Enemy is Time” – Budget Politics and the Reagan Revolution......Page 23
1.0.2 “We Heard America Shouting” – The End of Welfare as We Know It......Page 27
1.1 MANDATES AS SOCIAL CONSTRUCTIONS......Page 32
1.2.1 Institutional Perspectives......Page 35
1.2.2 Behavioral Perspectives: What the Voting Tradition Really Says about Mandates......Page 38
1.3 TELLING THE LARGER STORY OF MANDATE POLITICS......Page 42
2.1 THE MEDIA SPIN: ON THE DECLARATION OF MANDATES......Page 45
2.1.2 Spin, Counterspin, and Consensus......Page 50
2.2 BEFORE THE ELECTION......Page 52
2.3.1 Size of the Win......Page 53
2.3.2 Blindsiding......Page 58
2.3.3 Three Election Nights......Page 61
2.3.4 The Filter of TV Commentary......Page 68
2.4 THE BUILDUP TO TAKING OFFICE......Page 70
2.4.1 Explanation Dynamics......Page 75
3 Members of Congress Respond......Page 81
3.1 MANDATED CONGRESSES?......Page 83
3.1.1 A Model of Member Response......Page 85
3.1.2 Reconstructing Mandates......Page 87
3.1.3 1965......Page 88
3.1.4 1981......Page 90
3.1.5 1995......Page 91
3.1.6 A Reconstructed Mandate......Page 93
3.1.7 Mandate Dynamic and Mandate Response......Page 94
3.2.1 Observing Reactions to Mandates......Page 95
3.2.2 Coding Examples......Page 99
3.3.1 Modeling Individual Behavior......Page 102
3.4 WHO RESPONDS TO MANDATES?......Page 105
3.5 DURATION OF MANDATES......Page 108
3.5.1 Individual Members and the Mandate Duration......Page 111
3.5.2 Explaining the Different Durations......Page 115
3.6 MEMBERS AND THE MANDATE SIGNAL......Page 120
4 The Pattern of Congressional Response......Page 124
4.1 CONGRESS IN THE AGGREGATE......Page 125
4.1.1 1965......Page 127
4.1.2 1981......Page 129
4.1.3 1995......Page 130
4.2 PIVOTAL POLITICS......Page 132
4.2.1 Notes on Pivotal Politics Theory......Page 133
4.2.2 Static Effects: Changing Personnel......Page 135
4.2.3 Dynamic Effects: Changing the Message......Page 139
4.3 MOVEMENT BACK TOWARD EQUILIBRIUM: A LONGER VIEW......Page 142
4.3.1 Measures......Page 143
4.3.2 Modeling Equilibration......Page 146
5.1 INSTITUTIONAL POLITICS......Page 149
5.1.1 Why Change Rules?......Page 150
5.1.2 1965: Rules for a Great Society......Page 152
5.1.3 1981: A Revolution Without a Majority......Page 154
5.1.4 1995: Preparing to Pass the Contract......Page 157
5.1.5 Mandates and Study of Institutional Change......Page 160
5.2 TURNING THE MANDATE OFF......Page 162
5.2.1 The Great Society of 1964–1965......Page 165
5.2.2 The Reagan Revolution of 1980–1981......Page 167
5.2.3 The Contract with America, 1994–1995......Page 169
5.2.4 A Validity Check......Page 171
5.3 MANDATES AND THE FLOW OF PUBLIC POLICY......Page 172
5.4 APPENDIX......Page 175
6.1 THE RETURN TO NORMAL POLITICS......Page 179
6.1.1 The Tide Turns......Page 180
6.2 THE SUBSEQUENT ELECTION......Page 184
6.2.1 First-Term Members......Page 185
6.2.2 Representation or Retaliation: Mandates Two Years Later......Page 186
6.2.3 Retirements......Page 187
6.2.4 Election Results: Is Mandate Response Rewarded?......Page 191
6.2.5 Voters and Mandate Reactions......Page 195
7.1 THE 2004 MANDATE?......Page 197
7.1.1 The Evidence of Election Night......Page 198
7.3 THE EFFICIENCY OF DEMOCRACY......Page 201
7.3.1 The Underappreciated Status Quo......Page 203
7.4 DRAMATIC BEGINNINGS......Page 204
7.5 ELECTIONS IN AMERICA: A REINTERPRETATION......Page 205
7.5.1 The Rational Expectations Perspective......Page 206
7.6 THE DEMOCRATIC DILEMMA OF MANDATES......Page 207
7.6.1 Normative Concern Squared with Empirical Evidence......Page 209
Bibliography......Page 213
Index......Page 217