Making Prehistory

Cover......Page 1
Half-title......Page 3
Series-title......Page 5
Title......Page 7
Copyright......Page 8
Dedication......Page 9
Contents......Page 11
Figures......Page 14
Acknowledgments......Page 15
Introduction......Page 17
1.1 Limits to our knowledge of prehistory......Page 26
1.2 The time asymmetry of knowledge......Page 33
1.3 The past vs. the microphysical......Page 39
1.4 Scientific realism......Page 43
1.5 A skewed debate......Page 50
2 The colors of the dinosaurs......Page 53
2.1 Lewis on the asymmetry of overdetermination......Page 54
2.2 Cleland’s argument......Page 55
2.3 Why causal/metaphysical overdetermination does not rule out epistemic underdetermination......Page 60
2.4 Local underdetermination problems in historical science......Page 62
2.5 How historical processes destroy information......Page 69
2.6 A fossilized dinosaur heart......Page 72
2.7 The roles of background theories in historical vs. experimental science......Page 73
3 Manipulation matters......Page 77
3.1 Can we observe the past?......Page 78
3.2 The context-dependence of the range of the observable......Page 81
3.3 Two species of scientific realism......Page 82
3.4 Two roles for unobservables......Page 86
3.5 Two basic arguments for realism: devitt and hacking......Page 88
3.6 The classical abductive argument for realism: boyd......Page 90
3.7 Mcmullin on fertility and metaphor in science......Page 97
4.1 The analogue asymmetry......Page 101
4.2 Misleading observable analogues in paleontology......Page 103
4.3 Explaining past scientific mistakes......Page 108
4.4 The analogue asymmetry and the pessimistic induction......Page 112
5.1 Novel, untestable predictions......Page 117
5.2 Why suppose that predictive novelty carries any extra evidential weight?......Page 120
5.3 Novel predictions in historical science......Page 125
Paleobiology......Page 126
Archaeology......Page 128
Historical geology......Page 129
5.4 Why are novel predictions in historical science so difficult to test?......Page 130
5.5 Coping with the asymmetries......Page 139
5.6 Numerical experiments......Page 141
6
Making prehistory: could the past be
socially constructed?......Page 146
6.1 What does it mean to say that something is socially constructed?......Page 147
6.2 Five roads to social constructivism, all paved with good intentions......Page 151
6.3 Are there any good arguments for constructivism?......Page 159
6.4 Why the abductive argument for realism does not support metaphysical realism......Page 161
6.5 A priori arguments against historical constructivism......Page 165
6.6 The natural historical attitude......Page 170
6.7 Two prehistories......Page 177
7 The natural historical attitude......Page 179
7.1 Arthur fine’s trust in science......Page 180
7.2 Empirical adequacy......Page 183
7.3 Constructive empiricism implies skepticism about the past......Page 185
7.4 A sense in which the natural historical attitude is “natural”......Page 187
7.5 Truth and reference......Page 190
7.6 Another way in which the realism debate has been skewed......Page 194
8 Snowball Earth in the balance......Page 196
8.1 The appeal to consilience in the snowball earth debate......Page 197
8.2 Going beyond “seat-of-the-pants feel”......Page 201
8.3 Is consilience merely a pragmatic virtue?......Page 208
8.4 Reducing non-empirical virtue to empirical virtue......Page 211
8.5 Consequences of the asymmetries: snowball vs. slushball earth......Page 214
Conclusion......Page 220
References......Page 223
Index......Page 232