Macroeconomic Analysis and Parametric Control of a Regional Economic Union

Introduction
Contents
About the Authors
Chapter 1: Parametric Control of Macroeconomic Systems: Basic Components of Theory
	1.1 Structure of Theory of Parametric Control
	1.2 Parameter Identification Algorithm for Large-Scale Macroeconomic Models
	1.3 Numerical Estimation Methods for some Types of Stability of Mathematical Macroeconomic Models
		1.3.1 Numerical Estimation Methods for Weak Structural Stability of Dynamic Models
		1.3.2 Numerical Estimation Methods for Stability Indexes of Model Mappings
		1.3.3 Numerical Estimation Methods for Stability of Differentiable Model Mappings
		1.3.4 Numerical Estimation Methods for Stability of Germs of Differential Model Mappings
	1.4 Some Properties of Solutions of Parametric Control Problems
		1.4.1 Sufficient Conditions for the Existence of Solutions of Optimal Parametric Control Design and Choice Problems
		1.4.2 Sufficient Conditions for a Continuous Dependence of Optimal Criteria Values on Uncontrolled Functions in Optimal Parame...
		1.4.3 Sufficient Conditions for the Existence of Bifurcation Points for Extremals of Optimal Parametric Control Choice Problems
	1.5 Example: Parametric Control of Cyclic Dynamics Based on Kondratiev´s Cycle Model
	1.6 Example: Parametric Control of Nonlinear Dynamic System Based on Lorenz Model and Estimation of Bifurcation Points for Ext...
Chapter 2: Macroeconomic Analysis and Parametric Control Based on Global Multi-country Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium ...
	2.1 Modeling Procedure
		2.1.1 Conceptual Description of the Global Economy
		2.1.2 Building of Model 1 and Solution Algorithm
	2.2 Adaptation of Model 1 to the Goals of Research
		2.2.1 Choice of Economic Regions and Sectors, Retrospective and Forecasting Periods for Computer Simulations
		2.2.2 Initial Database and Calibration of Model 1
	2.3 Applicability Testing of Model 1
	2.4 Macroeconomic Analysis Based on Model 1
		2.4.1 Comparative Snapshot Analysis Based on Model 1
		2.4.2 Scenario Analysis Based on Model 1
	2.5 Parametric Control Based on Model 1: A Series of Problem Statements and Their Solutions
		2.5.1 Problems of Economic Growth, Food Security, Reduction of Trade Gap, and Regional Development Disproportions
		2.5.2 Structural Adjustment Problem at a Sectoral Level
		2.5.3 Testing of Solutions Applicability
		2.5.4 Study of Solutions Dependence on Uncontrolled Parameters
Chapter 3: Macroeconomic Analysis and Parametric Control Based on Global Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model (Model 2)
	3.1 Conceptual Description of the Global Economy Within Model 2
		3.1.1 Prerequisites for Global Economy Description
		3.1.2 Conceptual Description of Household´s Behavior
		3.1.3 Conceptual Description of Firm´s Behavior
		3.1.4 Conceptual Description of Second-Level Bank´s Behavior
		3.1.5 Conceptual Description of State´s Behavior
		3.1.6 Balance and Auxiliary Equations
	3.2 Nonlinear Modeling and Parameter Estimation
		3.2.1 Nonlinear Model 2 and Estimation of Its Parameters
		3.2.2 Building of Linear Model 2
		3.2.3 Adaptation to the Goals of Research, Parameter Identification and Calibration of Linear Model 2
		3.2.4 Adjustment of Parameter Values for Nonlinear Model 2
	3.3 Applicability Testing of Model 2
		3.3.1 Testing with Stability Indexes
		3.3.2 Testing with Retrospective Forecasting
		3.3.3 Testing with Moments
		3.3.4 Testing with Impulse Responses
		3.3.5 Testing with Local Sensitivity Analysis
		3.3.6 Testing with Marginal Likelihood Comparison
	3.4 Mid-term Forecasting and Macroeconomic Analysis Based on Model 2
		3.4.1 Knoware and Software for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Analysis
		3.4.2 Solution of Basic Mid-term Forecasting Problems
		3.4.3 Solution of Snapshot Macroeconomic Analysis Problems
		3.4.4 Solution of Scenario Macroeconomic Analysis Problems
	3.5 Parametric Control Based on Model 2: A Series of Problem Statements and Their Solutions
		3.5.1 Problem Statements for Parametric Control
		3.5.2 Solutions of Parametric Control Problems
		3.5.3 Applicability Testing of Solutions
		3.5.4 Study of Solutions Dependence on Uncontrolled Parameters
Chapter 4: Macroeconomic Analysis and Parametric Control Based on Global Multi-country Hybrid Econometric Model (Model 3)
	4.1 Building of Model 3
	4.2 Applicability Testing of Model 3
	4.3 Macroeconomic Analysis and Mid-term Forecasting Based on Model 3
		4.3.1 Knowhow and Software for Macroeconomic Analysis and Mid-term Forecasting
		4.3.2 Examples of Mid-term Forecasts Based on Model 3
		4.3.3 Examples of Comparative Macroeconomic Analysis
		4.3.4 Examples of Scenario Macroeconomic Analysis
	4.4 Parametric Control Based on Model 3: A Series of Problem Statements and Their Solutions
		4.4.1 Problem Statements for Parametric Control
		4.4.2 Solutions of Parametric Control Problems
		4.4.3 Applicability Testing of Solutions
		4.4.4 Study of Solutions Dependence on Uncontrolled Parameters
Conclusions
References
Index