Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change (America's Climate Choices)

Cover......Page 1
Title......Page 2
Copyright......Page 3
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES......Page 4
PANEL ON LIMITING THE MAGNITUDE OF FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE......Page 6
Foreword: About America’s  Climate Choices......Page 8
Preface......Page 10
Acknowledgments......Page 14
Contents......Page 18
Summary......Page 20
Adopt a mechanism for setting an economy-wide carbon pricing system   (see Chapter 4).......Page 25
1.  Realize the practical potential for near-term emission reductions.......Page 27
3. Create new technology choices.......Page 28
Consider potential equity implications when designing and implementing poli- cies to limit climate change, with special attention to disadvantaged populations  (see Chapter 6).......Page 29
Establish the United States as a leader to stimulate other countries to adopt GHG  emissions reduction targets (see Chapter 7).......Page 30
Enable fexibility and experimentation with emissions-reduction policies at re- gional, state, and local levels (see Chapter 7).  State and local action on climate change has already been signifcant and wide-rang-......Page 31
Design policies that balance durability and consistency with fexibility and ca- pacity for modifcation as we learn from experience (see Chapter 8).......Page 32
 CONTEXT AND PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT......Page 34
PRINCIPLES TO GUIDE CLIMATE CHANGE LIMITING POLICY AND STRATEGY......Page 36
ORGANIZATION OF THE REPORT......Page 37
REFERENCE U.S. AND GLOBAL EMISSIONS......Page 40
SETTING CLIMATE CHANGE LIMITING GOALS......Page 49
GLOBAL EMISSION TARGETS......Page 51
U.S. EMISSION TARGETS......Page 55
TABLE 2.1 Cumulative U.S. GHG Emissions (Gt CO......Page 58
IMPLICATIONS OF U.S. EMISSION GOALS......Page 61
TABLE 2.2 Effect of Carbon Prices on Energy Prices......Page 65
KEY CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS......Page 67
OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIMITING GHG EMISSIONS......Page 70
Infuencing Demand for Goods and Services that Require Energy......Page 71
Improving the Effciency of Energy Use......Page 75
Building-Sector Effciency......Page 78
Industrial-Sector Effciency......Page 79
Transportation-Sector Effciency......Page 80
Reducing the Carbon Intensity of Energy......Page 81
Natural Gas......Page 82
Renewables......Page 83
Nuclear Power......Page 84
Biopower and Biofuels......Page 85
Carbon Capture and Storage......Page 86
Sequestration in Forests and Agricultural Systems......Page 87
Oceanic Sequestration Strategies......Page 92
Direct Air Capture of CO......Page 93
Reducing Emissions of Non-CO Greenhouse Gases......Page 94
TABLE 3.1 Summary of Emission Reduction Options for Non-CO......Page 95
Methane Emissions from Energy and Landfll Sources......Page 96
Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Combustion and Industrial Sources......Page 97
Fluorinated GHG Emissions......Page 98
THE CASE FOR URGENCY......Page 100
Feasibility of Decarbonizing the Energy System......Page 101
TABLE 3.2 Comparison of Projected Requirement (red) and Technical Potential for......Page 104
THE LARGER CONTExT FOR TECHNOLOGY......Page 106
KEY CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS......Page 107
4. Crafting a Portfolio of Climate Change Limiting Policies......Page 110
The Scope of Coverage......Page 111
Allocating Entitlements......Page 112
Using Funds from Taxes or Auctions......Page 114
The Impact of Design on Allowance Prices......Page 115
The Role for Offsets and Offset Tax Credits......Page 116
Linking to the Existing System......Page 118
Policy Stability......Page 120
Temporal Flexibility......Page 121
Administrative Ease......Page 122
The Role of Uncertainty......Page 123
Policy Adaptability......Page 124
Taxes Versus Cap and Trade: Summary......Page 126
COMPLEMENTARY OPTIONS FOR THE POLICY PORTFOLIO......Page 127
Barriers to a Timely and Robust Response to Pricing......Page 128
Building a Strategic Portfolio of Complementary Policies......Page 130
Near-Term, High-Leverage Opportunities......Page 131
Managing Asset Turnover in the Energy Sector......Page 133
Other Potential Strategies......Page 135
Examples of Complementary Policy Options......Page 136
TABLE 4.1  Illustrative Options for Meeting Complementary Policy Goals......Page 137
TABLE 4.1 Continued......Page 138
INTEGRATING THE POLICY OPTIONS......Page 145
Policy Portfolio Interactions and Sequencing......Page 147
Emissions Leakage......Page 149
KEY CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS......Page 152
1. Realize the practical potential for near-term emissions reductions. End-use......Page 153
3. Create new technology choices. See discussion in Chapter 5.......Page 154
THE ROLE OF TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION......Page 156
THE PROCESS OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE......Page 158
The Essential Role of Markets......Page 159
The Infuence of Government Policies......Page 160
TABLE 5.1  Policy Options That Can Infuence Technology Innovation......Page 161
Federal Funding for Energy-Related R&D......Page 162
Private-Sector Funding of Energy-Related R&D......Page 165
TABLE 5.2 Year 2007-2008 R&D Spending by Industry for U.S.-Based Firms Included in......Page 167
TABLE 5.4 R&D Spending by All Firms Identifed as “Utilities” in the 2008 List of the......Page 168
R&D Scientists and Engineers in Industry......Page 169
Engineering and Science Graduates......Page 170
TABLE 5.5 Employment of R&D Scientists and Engineers for Companies, Listed by......Page 171
Key Findings on Available Resources......Page 172
Private-Sector Support for Energy-Related R&D......Page 175
Overview of Current Policies......Page 176
Limitations of Current U.S. Policies......Page 177
TABLE 5.6  Examples of Policy Impediments to Clean Energy Technologies......Page 178
TABLE 5.6 Continued......Page 179
KEY CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS......Page 182
LINKAGES WITH ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY ISSUES......Page 184
Energy Security......Page 185
Air Pollution......Page 186
Agriculture and Forestry......Page 187
Climate Change Adaptation......Page 188
International Ancillary Benefts and Costs......Page 189
KEY CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS......Page 191
Socioeconomic Distributional Impacts......Page 192
TABLE 6.1  Summary of Impact Analyses of Cap and Trade and Carbon Taxes in the......Page 197
TABLE 6.1  Continued......Page 199
Region-Based Distributional Impacts......Page 201
Employment Impacts......Page 202
TABLE 6.2: Average Social Welfare Loss by Region......Page 203
The Need for Broad Political Participation......Page 207
KEY CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS......Page 209
INTERNATIONAL STRATEGIES......Page 212
U.S. Policies and International Incentives......Page 213
The Role of Multilateral Institutions......Page 214
Distinctive Perspectives of Low- and Middle-Income Countries......Page 218
Scenario 1: Independent but Coordinated Action......Page 220
Scenario 2: A Global Regime with Financial Transfers......Page 221
Competition and Climate Change......Page 222
KEY CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS......Page 224
BALANCING FEDERAL WITH STATE AND LOCAL ACTION......Page 225
Example: Cap and Trade......Page 228
Example: Clean Air Act and Preemption......Page 230
Example: Building Standards......Page 231
KEY CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS......Page 232
POLICY STABILITY, DURABILITY, AND ENFORCEMENT......Page 234
Example 1: Effective Implementation of Renewable Portfolio Standards......Page 237
GENERATING TIMELY INFORMATION FOR ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT......Page 238
KEY CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS......Page 241
B......Page 244
C......Page 245
D......Page 246
F......Page 247
H......Page 248
K......Page 249
M......Page 250
N......Page 251
P......Page 252
Q......Page 253
S......Page 254
W......Page 255
Z......Page 256
A: America’s Climate Choices: Membership Lists......Page 258
B: Panel on Limiting the  Magnitude of Future Climate  Change:  Statement of Task......Page 262
C: Panel on Limiting the  Magnitude of Future Climate  Change: Biographical Sketches......Page 264
ACRONYMS......Page 274
CHEMICAL COMPOUNDS......Page 275
UNITS USED (FOR ENERGY, POWER, MATTER) J: joule. The energy of one watt of power fowing for one second GJ: gigajoule, 109 joules EJ : exajoule, 1018 joules     BTU: British thermal unit. The energy to raise the temperature of one pound of water......Page 276