Learning from Catastrophes: Strategies for Reaction and Response

Cover
Praise for Learning from Catastrophes
Contents
Foreword
Preface
Part I: Setting the Stage
	Chapter 1: Principles and Challenges for Reducing Risks from Disasters
		Overview
		Framework for Analysis
		Risk Assessment
		Risk Perception and Choice
		Risk-Management Strategies
		Guiding Principles
	Chapter 2: Acting in Time Against Disasters: A Comprehensive Risk-Management Framework
		Overview
		Managing Large-Scale Social Hazards
		Points of Intervention: When and Where Can We Invest Most Effectively?
		The Level and Balance of the Current Portfolio of Risk-Management Efforts
		The More General Problem of Acting in Time
		Conclusion
Part II: Linking Risk Assessment, Risk Perception, and Risk Management
	Chapter 3: Forecasting and Communicating the Risk of Extreme Weather Events
		Overview
		Introduction
		Assessing Risk and Characterizing Uncertainty on Climate Timescales
		Assessing Risk and Characterizing Uncertainty for Extreme Weather Events
		Conclusion
	Chapter 4: Cognitive Constraints and Behavioral Biases
		Overview
		Introduction
		Thinking About Complex Systems
		How Do We Cope?
		How Can We Improve Our Performance?
	Chapter 5: The Five Neglects: Risks Gone Amiss
		Overview
		Introduction
		The Five Neglects
		Case Studies
		Conclusion
	Chapter 6: Can Poor Countries Afford to Prepare for Low-Probability Risks?
		Overview
		Can Poor Countries Afford to Prepare for Low-Probability Risks?
		State of Early Warning in Developing Countries: High-Probability Events
		State of Early Warning in Developing Countries: Low-Probability Events
		High or Low Probability: How Climate Change Is Changing the Nature of Risk
		Who Should Pay for Early Warning?
		Options for Early Warning for Devastating Low-Probability Events in Poor Countries
		Conclusion
	Chapter 7: The Role of Risk Regulation in Mitigating Natural Disasters
		Overview
		Regulating Risk
		The Importance of Information
		Important Considerations and Constraints
		Discussion: Lessons and Recommendations
	Chapter 8: Hedging Against Tomorrow’s Catastrophes: Sustainable Financial Solutions to Help Protect Against Extreme Events
		Overview
		Introduction
		How Much Are You Willing to Lose When the Next Catastrophe Strikes?
		How Alternative Risk-Transfer Instruments Provide Financial Protection Against Extreme Events
		How Financial Instruments Can Help the Developing World
		Further Expanding Alternative Risk-Transfer Markets
Part III: Applications to Catastrophic Risks
	Chapter 9: A Financial Malignancy
		Overview
		Coordination and Cooperation
		Clarity of Communication
		Control of Toxins
		Capital and Cushion
		Co-Investment
		Courage
	Chapter 10: Climate Change: Nature and Action
		Overview
		The Earth as a Biophysical System
	Chapter 11: Lessons from Risk Analysis: Terrorism, Natural Disasters, and Technological Accidents
		Overview
		A Brief History of Risk Analysis
		What Can Terrorism Risk Analysts Learn from Risk Analyses of Natural and Technological Disasters?
		What Can Natural and Technological Disaster Risk Analysts Learn from Terrorism Risk Analysis?
		Conclusion
	Chapter 12: Turning Danger [Omitted] to Opportunities [Omitted]: Reconstructing China’s National System for Emergency Management After 2003
		Overview
		Introduction
		Weaknesses in the Traditional Model: Lessons from SARS
		Restructuring a New National System for Emergency Management: Chinese NSEM 2.0 After SARS
		New Challenges and the Way Forward
		Moving into NSEM 3.0: Major Issues to Resolve
	Chapter 13: Dealing with Pandemics: Global Security, Risk Analysis, and Science Policy
		Overview
		Introduction
		Infectious Diseases: An Enduring Threat
		Antibiotic Resistance
		Agricultural Practices
		Dual-Use Research of Concern
		Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases
		Preparedness Against Biological Events
		An International Compact for Infectious Diseases
		Conclusion
Part IV: Innovation and Leadership
	Chapter 14: Long-Term Contracts for Reducing Losses from Future Catastrophes
		Overview
		Two Illustrative Examples
		Behavioral Biases
		Reducing Losses and Fatalities from Natural Disasters
		Dealing with Interdependencies in Organizations
		Future Research Needs
	Chapter 15: Developing Leadership to Avert and Mitigate Disasters
		Overview
		Experience-Anchored Leadership Precepts
		Merck & Co., Inc.
		Preparing Leadership for a Firefighting Crisis
		The Enduring Importance of Leadership in the Face of Extreme Risk
Endnotes
About the Authors
World Economic Forum Global Agenda Council on the Mitigation of Natural Disasters
Index
	A
	B
	C
	D
	E
	F
	G
	H
	I
	J–K
	L
	M
	N
	O–P
	Q–R
	S
	T
	U–V
	W–Z