Large-Scale Disasters: Prediction, Control, and Mitigation

Cover......Page 1
Half-title......Page 3
Title......Page 5
Copyright......Page 6
Dedication......Page 7
Contents......Page 9
Preface......Page 17
About the editor......Page 21
List of contributors......Page 23
1.1 What is a large-scale disaster?......Page 27
1.2 Book contents......Page 28
Bibliography......Page 29
2.1 Are disasters a modern curse?......Page 31
2.2 Disaster scope......Page 32
2.3 Facets of large-scale disasters......Page 35
2.4 The science of disaster prediction and control......Page 36
2.4.1 Modeling the disaster\'s dynamics......Page 38
2.4.2 The fundamental transport equations......Page 39
2.4.3 Closing the equations......Page 40
2.4.4 Compressibility......Page 43
2.4.5 Prandtl\'s breakthrough......Page 46
2.4.6 Turbulent flows......Page 47
2.4.8 Other complexities......Page 49
2.4.9 Earthquakes......Page 51
2.4.10 The butterfly effect......Page 52
2.5 Global Earth Observation System of Systems......Page 56
2.6 The art of disaster management......Page 57
2.7 A bit of sociology......Page 58
2.8.1 San Francisco Earthquake......Page 60
2.8.2 Hyatt Regency walkway collapse......Page 64
2.8.3 Izmit Earthquake......Page 67
2.8.4 September 11......Page 68
2.8.5 Pacific Tsunami......Page 69
2.8.6 Hurricane Katrina......Page 71
2.8.8 Hurricane Wilma......Page 75
2.8.9 Hajj stampede of 2006......Page 80
2.8.10 Al-Salam Boccaccio 98......Page 82
2.8.11 Bird flu......Page 85
2.8.12 Energy crisis......Page 87
References......Page 90
3.1 Introduction......Page 95
3.2 Definition and modeling of scales in climate and weather......Page 97
3.2.3 Limits to predictability......Page 98
3.2.4 Global and regional climate models......Page 100
3.3 Definition and modeling of scales during accidental release of toxic agents in urban environments......Page 103
3.4.2 Application of modeling methods to large-scale disasters......Page 107
3.4.3 Multiscale modeling techniques......Page 108
3.4.4 Molecular dynamics method......Page 109
3.4.6 Monte Carlo methods......Page 110
3.4.7 Cellular automata......Page 111
3.4.9 Mathematical homogenization......Page 112
3.4.11 Heterogeneous multiscale method......Page 113
3.4.12 Continuum methods......Page 114
3.4.13 Domain decomposition method and parallel computations......Page 115
3.4.14 Lattice Boltzmann method......Page 116
References......Page 117
4.1.1 Defining disasters......Page 120
4.1.2 Do natural disasters exist?......Page 123
4.2.1 Case studies......Page 124
4.2.2 Root cause: vulnerability......Page 127
4.2.3 Root causes of vulnerability......Page 131
4.3.1 Principles......Page 134
4.3.2 Illustrative case studies......Page 135
4.4 Conclusions......Page 139
References......Page 140
5.1 Introduction......Page 146
5.2 Disaster relief issues identified in literature......Page 148
5.3 Supply chain issues......Page 149
5.3.1 Funding issues......Page 152
5.3.2 Needs assessment and procurement......Page 153
5.3.3 Management of information......Page 155
5.3.4 Coordination issues......Page 156
5.4 Operational issues......Page 158
5.4.1 Personnel issues......Page 160
5.4.2 Availability of technology......Page 162
5.4.3 Local resources......Page 163
5.5.2 Corruption......Page 165
5.6.1 Military use in disaster relief......Page 166
5.7 Conclusions and future research directions......Page 168
References......Page 169
6.1 Introduction......Page 173
6.3 Classification of disasters......Page 174
6.4 Disaster management......Page 175
6.5.1 Phase I: disaster preparedness......Page 176
6.5.2 Phase II: medical response......Page 178
Casualty triage......Page 179
Hospital response......Page 181
6.6 Role of specialists......Page 182
6.7 Disaster evaluation......Page 184
References......Page 185
7.1 Introduction......Page 187
7.2 Definitions......Page 188
7.3.1 Variables of health care capacity......Page 189
7.3.3 Capacities in the medical assistance chain......Page 190
7.3.4 Mass trauma casualty predictor......Page 192
7.3.6 Adaptation of existing capacity......Page 194
7.3.7 Staff calling in and staff augmentation plan......Page 195
7.3.8 Modification of the standards of care......Page 196
7.4 Cooperative regional capacity augmentation......Page 197
7.6 Role of government......Page 199
7.8 Summary......Page 200
References......Page 201
8.1 Introduction......Page 203
8.2.2 Energy and how we live......Page 205
8.2.3 How much we will use......Page 207
8.3 Carbon dioxide......Page 209
8.3.2 Energy balance......Page 210
8.3.3 Climate modeling......Page 212
8.3.4 Global warming and climate change......Page 215
Sea level rise......Page 216
Regional impact......Page 218
8.4 CO2 emission mitigation......Page 220
8.4.1 Implementing multiple solutions......Page 221
8.4.2 The ``wedges\'\'......Page 222
8.5 Low-carbon fossil conversion technologies......Page 224
8.5.1 Chemical energy......Page 225
8.5.2 CO2 capture......Page 226
8.6 Zero-carbon conversion technologies: nuclear and renewable sources......Page 229
8.6.2 Hydraulic power......Page 230
8.6.4 Wind energy......Page 231
8.6.6 Biomass energy......Page 232
8.6.7 Renewable sources and storage......Page 233
8.7 Transportation......Page 234
8.8 Conclusions......Page 235
References......Page 236
9.1 Introduction......Page 238
9.2 Biomass and the Sahara......Page 239
9.3 Saline/salt water agriculture......Page 240
9.4 Additional impacts/benefits of saline/seawater agriculture......Page 241
9.5 Summary......Page 242
 References......Page 243
10.1 Introduction......Page 244
10.3 Sand and dust storms......Page 247
10.3.1 Remote sensing of sand and dust storms......Page 248
10.3.2 Egypt case study......Page 249
Visible sensing of sand and dust storms......Page 250
Microwave sensing of sand and dust storms......Page 252
10.3.3 India case study......Page 256
Dust screening using TOMS aerosol index......Page 257
Visible sensing of sand and dust storms......Page 259
Microwave sensing of sand and dust storms......Page 261
10.3.4 Modeling of dust storms (dust cycle model)......Page 262
Operational model boundary and initial conditions......Page 263
Aerosol optical depth......Page 265
Aerosol fine mode fraction......Page 267
10.4.2 Pollution effects forcing on large-scale vegetation in India......Page 268
10.5 Forcing component......Page 271
Latent heat flux......Page 274
10.5.2 China case study......Page 275
Boundary layer dispersion......Page 276
Albedo......Page 277
10.6 Conclusions......Page 278
References......Page 280
11.1 Introduction......Page 284
11.2 Causes of tsunamis: a general overview......Page 288
11.3 Hydrodynamics of tsunamis......Page 289
11.4 Ecological impacts of tsunamis—a general overview......Page 291
11.5.1 The Sumatra–Andaman Island Earthquake, 26 December 2004......Page 293
11.5.2 The Sumatra Tsunami in Sri Lanka......Page 295
11.5.3 Wave observations and impacts on Sri Lanka......Page 296
Rapid green assessment......Page 297
Physical impacts......Page 298
Ecosystem damage......Page 304
Long-term impacts on the coastline......Page 305
11.6 Tsunami warning systems......Page 308
11.7 Planning for tsunamis......Page 309
11.7.1 Components of the stochastic scheduling network......Page 310
Human detection......Page 311
Authorities’ tsunami warning center......Page 312
References......Page 315
12.1 Background......Page 319
12.2 More recent interpretation of data......Page 321
12.3 Results from numerical simulations......Page 322
12.4 Implications......Page 324
References......Page 326
13.2 Fully coupled online modeling......Page 328
13.2.2 Subgrid scale transport......Page 329
13.2.4 Gas-phase chemistry......Page 330
13.2.5 Parameterization of aerosols......Page 331
13.3 Online versus offline modeling......Page 332
13.4 Application in global change research......Page 338
13.5 Concluding remarks......Page 340
References......Page 341
14.1 Introduction......Page 344
14.2 Potentially predictable phenomena......Page 347
14.3 Successes in dynamical climate prediction......Page 348
14.4 Challenges that remain......Page 351
14.5 Summary......Page 352
References......Page 353
15.1 Introduction......Page 355
15.1.1 Definitions of climate parameters......Page 356
15.2 A brief review of regional climate modeling......Page 358
15.3 ICTP regional climate model......Page 361
15.4.1 Defining changes of extremes......Page 363
15.5 Extremes and climate variability......Page 367
15.6.1 Severe summertime flooding in Europe......Page 372
15.6.2 Warming and heat wave......Page 373
15.6.3 Wind storms (hurricanes)......Page 377
15.7  Summary......Page 378
References......Page 383
16.1 Introduction......Page 389
16.2 Precipitation processes in observations and models......Page 390
16.2.1 Evaluation of model simulated changes in precipitation by examination of the diurnal cycle......Page 392
16.2.2 Observed trends in moisture and extreme precipitation events......Page 394
16.3 How should precipitation change as the climate changes?......Page 397
16.4 Questions and issues......Page 399
References......Page 400
17.1 Introduction......Page 403
17.2.1 Dust storms and sand storms......Page 404
The physics and characteristics of sand and dust transport......Page 407
Electrical effects within dust and sand storms......Page 410
Dust storm hazards......Page 411
Surface and meteorological conditions: geographic areas favorable for the occurrence of dust and sand storms......Page 412
Description of a haboob, a convection-generated dust storm......Page 414
Mitigation of dust storms......Page 416
17.2.2 Rainstorms, floods, and debris flows......Page 417
17.3.1 What is desertification?......Page 422
17.3.2 Extent of desertification......Page 425
17.3.3 Anthropogenic contributions to desertification......Page 427
Exposing soils to erosion through plowing and overgrazing......Page 428
Salinization of soils through irrigation and excessive well pumping in coastal areas......Page 431
Groundwater mining......Page 432
Deforestation......Page 434
17.3.5 Additional selected case studies and examples of desertification......Page 435
The Sahel, North Africa......Page 436
The arid western United States......Page 438
The loess soil areas of eastern China......Page 439
17.3.6 Physical process feedbacks that may affect desertification......Page 440
Vegetation—albedo/transpiration feedback......Page 441
Dust-radiation feedback......Page 442
17.3.7 Satellite-based methods for detecting and mapping desertification......Page 443
17.4 Summary......Page 444
References......Page 446
18.1 Forecasting before equations......Page 453
18.2 The birth of theoretical meteorology......Page 455
18.3 Initial attempts of scientifically based weather prediction......Page 458
18.4 Bergen school of meteorology......Page 459
18.5 First numerical integration of the primitive meteorological equations......Page 460
18.6 Weather forecasting after Richardson......Page 462
18.8 Expansion of the scope of traditional meteorological prediction......Page 465
18.9 Development of the modern atmospheric prediction systems......Page 466
18.10 From weather prediction to environmental engineering and climate control......Page 467
References......Page 470
19.2 Disaster-related weather......Page 473
19.3.2 Short-range prediction (3--5 days)......Page 474
19.4 Fundamental issues: atmospheric predictability......Page 475
19.5.1 Model physics......Page 476
19.6 Model data......Page 477
References......Page 478
20.1 Introduction......Page 479
20.2 Space remote sensing and disaster management......Page 480
20.3 General principles of remote sensing......Page 485
20.3.1 Optical, thermal, and microwave imaging......Page 487
Optical, thermal, and passive microwave remote sensing......Page 488
Microwave remote sensing......Page 491
Image processing......Page 496
Image interpretation......Page 499
20.3.3 Geophysical parameter retrieval and value adding......Page 501
20.3.4 Image classification and change detection......Page 503
20.4 Space-based initiatives for disaster management......Page 505
20.5 About the charter......Page 508
20.5.1 History and operations......Page 510
European remote sensing satellite (ERS)......Page 517
Satellite Pour l’Observation de la Terre (SPOT)......Page 518
NOAA satellites and information service......Page 523
SAC-C......Page 524
Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS)......Page 525
French Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales (CNES)......Page 526
Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO)......Page 527
Comisi´on Nacional de Actividades Espaciales (CONAE)......Page 528
Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)......Page 529
European Space Agency (ESA)......Page 530
Canadian Space Agency (CSA)......Page 532
Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO)......Page 534
NOAA, NASA, and USGS......Page 535
Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)......Page 536
20.5.5 Performance update......Page 537
20.6.1 Activation criteria......Page 541
20.6.2 Data acquisition planning......Page 542
20.6.3 Reporting and user feedback......Page 544
20.7.1 Nyiragongo volcanic eruption......Page 545
20.7.2 Southern Manitoba flood......Page 547
20.7.3 Galicia oil spill......Page 548
20.7.4 South Asian Tsunami......Page 551
20.7.5 French forest fires......Page 553
20.7.6 Hurricane Katrina......Page 554
20.7.7 Kashmir Earthquake......Page 557
20.7.8 Philippines landslide......Page 558
20.7.9 Central Europe floods......Page 560
Acknowledgments......Page 565
References......Page 566
21.2 Weather satellite measurements......Page 569
21.3 Global Earth Observation System of Systems......Page 571
21.4 The current and planned space component......Page 572
21.5 Vegetation index......Page 574
21.6 Flash floods......Page 576
21.7 Severe thunderstorms and hurricanes......Page 578
21.8 Improvements in the satellite observing system......Page 583
21.9 Summary......Page 592
References......Page 593
Epilogue......Page 596
Index......Page 599