International Trade in Forest Products: Lumber Trade Disputes, Models and Examples

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International Trade in Forest Products: Lumber Trade Disputes, Models and Examples
Copyright
Contents
List of Contributors
Acknowledgements
1 Introduction
	Abstract
	1.1 Welfare Measures
	1.2 Outline of Remainder of Book
	References
2 Canada–U.S. Softwood Lumber Dispute: Background
	Abstract
	2.1 Canadian Forest Tenure Arrangements: A Brief Overview
	2.2 Recent History of the Canada–U.S. Softwood Lumber Dispute
		Lumber I (1982–1983)
		Lumber II (1986–1991)
		Lumber III and the Softwood Lumber Agreement (1992–1994 and 1996–2001)
		Lumber IV and the Softwood Lumber Agreement (2006–2015)
		Lumber V
	2.3 Policy Options: Lumber Dispute Remedies
	2.4 Modeling Approaches
		2.4.1 Autarky and the excess supply and demand functions
		2.4.2 Gains from trade
	References
3 Spatial Price Equilibrium Trade Modelling: Theory
	Abstract
	3.1 Vertical and Horizontal Chains in Forest Trade Modeling
		3.1.1 Vertical chain integration
		3.1.2 Horizontal chain integration
	3.2 Background: Trade Modeling
	References
4 Modeling Bilateral Forest Products Trade
	4.1 Integrated Vertical and Horizontal Chain Model Specification
		4.1.1 Objective function
		4.1.2 Constraints
	4.2 Calibrating the Integrated Vertical and Horizontal Chain Model
	4.3 Economic Surplus and Income Redistribution
		4.3.1 Wood processing sector
		4.3.2 Upstream Log Markets
	4.4 Forest Trade Model Specifications
	4.5 Model Data
	4.6 Grouping Regions
	APPENDIX 4.A: GAMS Code for Base Model
		GAMS Code
		Solution to the base model
	APPENDIX 4.B: GAMS Code for Calibrated Base Model
		GAMS Code
		Discussion
	APPENDIX 4.C: GAMS Code for Calibrated Model using MCP
		GAMS Code
		Discussion
	Appendix 4.D: R code
		R-Code
		References
5 Economic Analysis of a Softwood Lumber Quota Regime and a Policy to Subsidize Biomass Generation of Electricity
	Abstract
	5.1 Modeling a Quota Regime
		5.1.1 Model data
		5.1.2 Results
	5.2 Climate Change and Energy Policy: European Demand for Wood Biomass
	5.3 Concluding Discussion
	APPENDIX 5.A: Alternative Model Specification
	APPENDIX 5.B: Expanded Results
	APPENDIX 5.C: GAMS Code for Modelling Quota Regime
	References
6 Global Forest Products TradeModel
	Abstract
	6.1 A Brief History of the GFPM
	6.2 GFPM Structure
	6.3 Input Data, and Model Calibration and Validation
	6.4 Mathematical Formulation
		6.4.1 Spatial global equilibrium (static phase)
		6.4.2 Dynamic phase
		6.4.3 Modeling timber supply with carbon markets
		6.4.4 Allowable cut constraint
	6.5 Model Calibration and Validation
	6.6 Computer Software
	6.7 GFPM Application: Some Examples
		6.7.1 Applications in outlook studies
		6.7.2 Application in studies evaluating impacts of trade policies
		6.7.3 Application in studies related to climate change issues
		6.7.4 Application in studies related to other policy questions
	6.8 Summary and Conclusions
	References
7 Softwood Lumber Trade and Trade Restrictions:Gravity Model
	Abstract
	7.1 Gravity Trade Model
	7.2 Estimating the Effect of Tariffs: Modeling Approach
	7.3 Data
	7.4 Estimation Results
		7.4.1 Trade quantity
		7.4.2 Value of trade
		7.4.3 Reliability tests
		7.4.4 Sensitivity analysis
	7.5 Discussion and Conclusions
	Appendix 7.A. Descriptive Statistics, Regression Models and Outputs
		Descriptive statistics
		Regression models
			OLS Specifications
			PPML Specifications
			Additional regression results
		References
8 A Global Vector Autoregression Model for Softwood Lumber Trade
	Abstract
	8.1 Methodology: Global Vector Autoregressive Models
	8.2 Data
	8.3 Estimation of the GVAR Model
	8.4 Generalized Impulse Response Analysis
	8.5 Concluding Remarks
	Appendix 8.A: Descriptive Statistics and an Interest Rate Shock
	References
9 Discussion
	Abstract
	References
Index
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