International Seminar on Nuclear War And Planetary Emergencies: The 32nd Session of International Seminars And International Collaboration (The Science ... - Nuclear Strategy and Peace Technology)

CONTENTS......Page 8
1. OPENING SESSION......Page 16
COSMIC OBJECTS......Page 18
WATER......Page 19
Richard L. Garwin Science and National Intelligence......Page 21
REFERENCES......Page 31
THE BROADER PICTURE OF MIGRATION......Page 32
INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION – TRENDS, CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES......Page 33
MIGRATION AND DEVELOPMENT......Page 34
MIGRATION AND SECURITY......Page 35
MIGRANTS IN SOCIETY......Page 36
THE GLOBAL COMMISSION ON INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION......Page 37
Purpose and Mandate......Page 38
2. LIMITS OF DEVELOPMENT: MIGRATION......Page 40
Ahmad Kamal Migration and Cyberspace......Page 42
History......Page 47
Demographic Changes......Page 48
Africa......Page 49
INTEGRATION......Page 50
CONCLUSION......Page 51
MIGRATION......Page 53
DEVELOPMENT......Page 54
LESSONS FOR EUROPE......Page 55
MIGRATION AND ANTI-GLOBALIS ATION......Page 56
ENDNOTES......Page 57
REFERENCES......Page 58
INTRODUCTION......Page 60
ASIA TO MIDDLE EAST......Page 62
EAST ASIA......Page 67
SOUTH ASIA......Page 70
CURRENT AND FUTURE OUTLOOK......Page 74
REFERENCES......Page 79
The movement of capital......Page 81
Migration in the past......Page 82
Modern migration......Page 83
Social consequences......Page 84
Internal migration and social improvement......Page 85
Rural-urban migration......Page 86
A scientific approach to migration......Page 87
REFERENCES......Page 88
3. CLIMATOLOGY: GLOBAL WARMING......Page 90
CLIMATE AND HUMANKIND – AN AGE-OLD PARTNERSHIP......Page 92
FROM SPECULATION TO SCIENCE......Page 94
QUANTIFYING THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT......Page 95
CONCLUSION......Page 97
ENDNOTES......Page 98
INTRODUCTION......Page 99
BASIC CONCEPTS......Page 100
ONE-BOX MODELS......Page 101
UPWELLING-DIFFUSION EBMS......Page 102
PROBABILISTIC PROJECTIONS......Page 105
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS......Page 107
REFERENCES......Page 108
FEEDBACK AND OTHER MATTERS......Page 110
TURBULENCE AND MAXIMUM DISSIPATION......Page 113
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES AND GLOBAL WARMING......Page 117
Rapid Economic growth......Page 118
EFFICIENCY IN ENERGY UTILIZATION......Page 120
THE VALUE OF ELECTRIFICATION......Page 121
THE ROLE OF NUCLEAR POWER......Page 122
BIOMASS AND RENEWABLE ENERGY AND BIOFUELS – PROSPECTS FOR NEW ENERGY SOURCES......Page 123
THE FUTURE OF CARBON EMISSIONS......Page 125
REFERENCES......Page 126
4. TRANSMISSIBLE SPONGIFORM ENCEPHALOPATHY: PRIONS......Page 128
Robert G. Will Creutzfeld-Jakob Disease and Blood Transfusion......Page 130
REFERENCES......Page 134
TSE BASICS......Page 135
EVOLUTION OF THE BSE EPIDEMIC......Page 136
CATTLE AND BSE IN NORTH AMERICA......Page 141
lST BSE CASE IN THE NATIONAL HERD......Page 144
MANAGING BSE......Page 145
INTRODUCTION......Page 148
Statistical Analysis......Page 149
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS......Page 150
REFERENCES......Page 151
Herbert Budka Update on the Pathogenesis of Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathies......Page 152
REFERENCES......Page 153
5. THE CULTURAL EMERGENCY: INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATIONS — ENVIRONMENT......Page 156
INTRODUCTION......Page 158
TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS......Page 159
FUTURE ICT SYSTEMS AND APPLICATIONS......Page 163
CULTURAL CONSEQUENCES......Page 165
CONCLUSIONS......Page 166
REFERENCES......Page 167
6. COSMIC OBJECTS......Page 168
INTRODUCTION......Page 170
BACKGROUND......Page 171
DEVELOPMENTS IN 2003 AND 2004......Page 173
REFERENCES......Page 175
INTRODUCTION......Page 177
THE EVOLVING PROCESS OF COMPUTING AND ANNOUNCING FUTURE NON-ZERO EARTH IMPACT PROBABILITIES.......Page 179
SUMMARY......Page 187
REFERENCES......Page 188
Appendix 1: Milestone events for the near-Earth Obiect (NEO) discovery surveys......Page 189
Russell L. Schweickart Asteroid Deflection: Hopes and Fears......Page 192
CONSIDERATIONS AND IMPLICATIONS......Page 198
REFERENCES......Page 199
ABSTRACT......Page 200
Ground Truth Bridging between Minor Bodies and Meteorites/Cosmic Dust......Page 201
Geological Processes and Material Alterations......Page 203
Structure of “Undifferentiated” Bodies......Page 204
Other Interests: Jinuact Hazards and Future Resources......Page 205
Timeline and Current Status......Page 206
Target Asteroid (25143) Itokawa, a Su-km S-twe PHA......Page 208
Sample Return Strategy......Page 209
Sample Curation and Analyses......Page 212
Scientific Themes for Minor Bodv Exploration in the Post-Hayabusa Era......Page 214
Spectra-Known NEO Multiple Rendezvous Sample Returns......Page 216
Investigation of Asteroid Internal Structures......Page 219
Main Belt Asteroid Family Multiple Fly-by and Sample Returns......Page 221
Solar Power Sail Mission to Fly-by Main Belt and Jovian-Trojan Asteroids......Page 224
SUMMARY......Page 225
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS......Page 226
REFERENCES......Page 227
7. AIDS AND INFECTIOUS DISEASES: ETHICS IN MEDICINE......Page 228
Diego Buriot Limiting Access to Dangerous Pathogens — The Need for International Cooperation......Page 230
THE INTERNATIONAL DIMENSION......Page 232
REFERENCES......Page 234
Reynolds M. Salerno The U.S. Select Agent Rule and an International Opportunity to Develop Laboratory Biosecurity Guidelines......Page 236
SCIENTIFIC CONCERNS ABOUT THE U.S. REGULATIONS......Page 237
SECURITY CONCERNS ABOUT THE U.S. REGULATIONS......Page 238
LABORATORY BIOSECURITY RISK ASSESSMENT......Page 239
PROPOSAL FOR ACHIEVING INTERNATIONAL BIOSECURITY......Page 240
REFERENCES......Page 241
Lela Bakanidze New Georgian Legislation on Biosafety......Page 244
Disease threats......Page 247
Strategies for biological security......Page 248
International models......Page 249
Trade and economic organizations......Page 250
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS......Page 251
SECURITY COUNCIL RESOLUTION 1540 – CONTENT AND OBJECTIVES......Page 252
Gap That S. Res. 1540 Fills......Page 253
Committee Monitoring of Compliance – How Is Compliance Enforced?......Page 254
National Legislation To Prohibit WMD Proliferation......Page 255
Controlling Trans-National Trade of WMD......Page 256
Protection of Sensitive Materials......Page 257
PRIORITIES: COMPLYING WITH S. RES. 1540......Page 258
THE INTERPOL PROGRAM FOR PREVENTING BIO-CRIMES......Page 260
REFERENCES......Page 261
8. WATER AND POLLUTION......Page 264
CHANGE IN GLOBAL TEMPERATURE......Page 266
POTENTIAL HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CHANGE......Page 267
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT......Page 269
REFERENCES......Page 270
Ronald B. Linsky What is the Real Value of Water? Reaching Beyond the Global Dilemma of Cost and Price......Page 281
REFERENCES......Page 286
INTRODUCTION......Page 287
THE IRANIAN VILLAGE IN TRANSITION......Page 288
2. Land Reform, the Rise of Peasant Proprietorship, and the Development of Capitalist Fanning......Page 290
3. Revolution, the Demise of Capitalist Farming, and Transformation of the Peasantry......Page 292
CHANGES IN THE PRODUCTION SYSTEM......Page 293
IMPACT ON WATER REQUIREMENTS......Page 295
REFERENCES......Page 296
GROUNDWATER SUSTAINABILITY......Page 299
ISOTOPES IN HYDROGEOLOGICAL INVESTIGATIONS......Page 301
ROLE OF THE IAEA......Page 302
REFERENCES......Page 303
WATER IN THE AMERICAN WEST......Page 304
CALIFORNIA AS A MORE FOCUSED EXAMPLE......Page 305
Where are things headed in California?......Page 306
New Water: Improved water treatment technologies.......Page 309
Banking Water: Impacts on groundwater quality.......Page 310
Delta Water: Understanding complex ecological trends and balances.......Page 311
AQUIFER BANKING IN ORANGE COUNTY, CALIFORNIA......Page 312
CONCLUSIONS......Page 316
REFERENCES......Page 317
9. PERMANENT MONITORING PANEL MEETINGS AND REPORTS......Page 320
AIDS and Infectious Diseases Permanent Monitoring Panel Guy de The AIDS 2004 — Pressing Financial and Ethical Challenges......Page 322
HOW REAL IS THE EVIDENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE?......Page 324
HOW CERTAIN ARE WE OF THE CAUSE FOR EARTH’S RAPID TEMPERATURE RISE?......Page 326
CAN CLIMATE BE PREDICTED?......Page 327
WHAT DOES THE GLOBAL WARMING TREND MEAN TO A STATE, CITY, VILLAGE OR FARM?......Page 328
IF CLIMATE IS CHANGING, WHAT CAN BE DONE TO REDUCE UNWANTED CONSEQUENCES AND LEVERAGE POSITIVE ONES?......Page 329
CONCLUSIONS......Page 330
REFERENCES......Page 331
NEW ACTIVITIES OF THE PMP......Page 333
ISDR-IATF Proposal......Page 334
Space Mission Concepts......Page 335
Action Plans......Page 336
REFERENCES......Page 337
Energy Permanent Monitoring Panel Bruce Stram Panel Report......Page 338
CONCLUSIONS......Page 340
Recommendation 2......Page 344
SUCCESS AND CHALLENGES OF BANGLADESH RURAL ELECTRIFICATION PROGRAM: A BRIEF SUMMARY......Page 346
SALIENT METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES......Page 347
IMPACT ON REDUCTION OF ECONOMIC POVERTY......Page 349
IMPACT ON EDUCATION-POVERTY REDUCTION......Page 360
IMPACT ON HEALTH-POVERTY REDUCTION......Page 364
INFLUENCE ON WOMEN'S EMPOWERMENT: KNOWLEDGE OF GENDER EQUALITY ISSUES AND OVERALL EMPOWERMENT SCORE......Page 371
Impact on Human Development: Human Development Index......Page 373
CONCLUSIONS AND SUGGESTIONS......Page 374
ANNEX A METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES PERTAINING TO THE ESTIMATION OF INCOME ATTRIBUTABLE TO ELECTRICITY......Page 376
ANNEX B RURAL ELECTRIFICATION'S CONTRIBUTION TO RURAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME: PRESENT AND FUTURE......Page 379
REFERENCES......Page 380
NUCLEAR POWER: A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE DREAM AND THE NIGHTMARE......Page 386
PUBLIC VISIBILITY......Page 387
CAPITAL COSTS......Page 389
NUCLEAR FUEL INTEGRITY......Page 390
SAFETY REGULATION......Page 391
PLANT AVAILABILITY......Page 392
A CAUTIOUS SUMMARY......Page 393
EPILOGUE......Page 394
FIGURES AND TABLES......Page 395
REFERENCES......Page 399
INTERNATIONAL FOLLOW-UP TO THE 2003 REPORT AND RECOMMENDATIONS......Page 402
PMP WORK PROGRAMME FOR 2004/2005......Page 403
FUTURE MEETINGS......Page 406
Vitaly N. Tsygichko Information Revolution in the Military Field and the Establishment of an International Legal Regime for Information Security......Page 407
Limits of Development Permanent Monitoring Panel Hiltmar Schubert Panel Report......Page 413
NEXT YEAR’S INVESTIGATION......Page 414
THE SOCIOLOGICAL ASPECTS OF SENEGALESE MIGRANTS......Page 415
DISAGGREGATING THE “COMMUNITY”......Page 416
CONCLUSION......Page 417
U.S. IMMIGRATION POLICY BACKGROUND......Page 418
UNAUTHORIZED IMMIGRATION......Page 419
RESPONSE TO TERRORISM......Page 421
EFFECT OF IMMIGRATION ON U.S. MEGACITIES......Page 422
REFERENCES......Page 423
INTRODUCTION......Page 425
MIGRATION THEORY IN LITERATURE......Page 427
Integrating Theory of Determinants of Migration......Page 428
MIGRATION IN CHINA: CASE STUDY IN HONG KONG AND SHANGHAI......Page 429
Hong Kong......Page 430
Shanghai......Page 432
CONCLUSION......Page 435
REFERENCES......Page 436
ENDNOTES......Page 437
Historic background......Page 439
INTERNAL MIGRATION: PLACES OF ORIGIN AND PROFILE OF MIGRANTS......Page 440
A NEW TREND: MIGRATION FROM THE METROPOLIS TO OTHER PLACES......Page 441
Historic background......Page 442
MIGRATORY REGIONS IN MEXICO......Page 443
MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES: BORDER STATES AND COUNTIES......Page 444
SOME CONCLUSIONS......Page 445
REFERENCES......Page 446
KMC diffusion in India: a challenge......Page 448
First Evaluation of the use of the KMC Database......Page 449
CONCLUSION......Page 450
Christiane Huraux Using the KMC Programme’s Database in Developed Countries: An Illusion?......Page 451
Attributes measured when assessing Quality of Care......Page 452
KMC PROGRAM......Page 453
Limitations of our experience......Page 459
Processes......Page 454
Process of Monitoring......Page 455
Data analysis and interpretation......Page 456
Computer Data Recording......Page 458
FINAL REMARKS......Page 460
ATTENDEES......Page 461
POLLUTION PMP ACTIVITIES DURING 2004......Page 462
FUTURE POLLUTION PMP ACTIVITIES DURING 2005......Page 463
FOLLOW-ON WORK......Page 464
NEXT MEETING......Page 465
10. GLOBAL BIOSECURITY WORKSHOP......Page 466
Barry Kellman The Bio-Science Dilemma — Precious Opportunities and Dire Threats......Page 468
DEVELOPING A CULTURE OF RESPONSIBILITY IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR......Page 470
THE BUILDING BLOCKS......Page 471
TIME FOR ACTION......Page 472
PREAMBLE......Page 474
CHARTER COMMITMENTS......Page 475
GOVERNANCE......Page 476
Mechanisms......Page 477
11. COSMIC OBJECTS WORKSHOP......Page 478
Meteors......Page 480
Origin and physical properties of a meteor......Page 481
Meteor spectra......Page 482
Meteor showers......Page 483
Sporadic Meteors......Page 484
Bolides and superbolides......Page 485
Meteor observations from space......Page 486
Space debris re-enter......Page 489
Lightning distribution on the Earth......Page 490
The lightning phenomenon......Page 491
Noctilucent clouds......Page 493
PLANETARY PHENOMENA......Page 494
The meteor height on Mars......Page 495
Meteor showers on Mars......Page 497
The height of meteors on Venus......Page 498
Meteor showers on Venus......Page 499
METEORS ON JUPITER......Page 500
Meteor showers on Jupiter......Page 501
Observation of Martian lightning......Page 502
Observation of Jovian lightning......Page 503
Impact flashes......Page 504
Impact flashes on the Moon......Page 505
Transient Lunar Phenomena......Page 506
Auroras......Page 507
REFERENCES......Page 508
Scientific Objectives......Page 510
Science Background......Page 511
Technical Approach......Page 514
Delivery System......Page 515
Direct Contact......Page 516
Bonding......Page 517
Impaling......Page 518
System Design......Page 519
REFERENCES......Page 520
12. SEMINAR PARTICIPANTS......Page 522