International Migration Outlook 2009.

Foreword......Page 5
Table of Contents......Page 7
Addressing the Present, Preparing the Future......Page 11
Part I. International Migration and the Economic Crisis: Understanding the Links and Shaping Policy Responses......Page 13
Introduction......Page 14
Summary and recommendations......Page 15
1.1. After a period of sustained employment growth…......Page 16
1.2. … the economic downturn is damaging labour market conditions in most OECD countries…......Page 17
Figure I.2. Unemployment rates in selected OECD countries......Page 18
1.3. … and challenges the progress recently recorded in terms of labour market outcomes of immigrants......Page 19
Figure I.3. Employment and unemployment rates of the foreign-born in Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States......Page 20
1.4. Immigrants tend to be overrepresented in sectors which are the most sensitive to the business cycle......Page 21
Figure I.5. Distribution of native-born and recent immigrants (less than 10 years of residence) employment by sector sensitivity to the business cycle in selected OECD countries, 2007......Page 23
Box I.1. The role of employment distribution by industry in immigrant employment changes in the United States (November 2007 – November 2008)......Page 24
1.5. More temporary and part-time workers among immigrants......Page 22
1.6. Self-employment: a blessing or a curse for migrant workers......Page 25
Box I.2. Illegal employment of foreigners during an economic crisis......Page 27
1.7. Fighting discrimination and selective layoffs......Page 26
2. Impact of the economic crisis on migration flows and policy responses......Page 28
2.1. Business cycles and net migration are related, but the relationship is not universal…......Page 29
Figure I.6. Net migration rate and the business cycle in selected OECD countries, 1960-2007......Page 30
Figure I.7. Immigration and economic growth in the United States, 1900-1988......Page 31
2.2. Impact of the current crisis on labour migration flows......Page 32
Figure I.9. First time applicants to the Worker Registration Scheme, United Kingdom, May 2004 to December 2008......Page 34
Figure I.10. New registrations of citizens from selected new EU member countries with the Irish social security system, 2006-2009......Page 35
2.3. Migration policy in response to the crisis......Page 36
Figure I.11. The IT bubble in the United States: H-1B initial employment petitions approved and quota, employment growth in computer services and the NASDAQ Index, 1995-2006......Page 37
Box I.5. The New Swedish Labour Migration Policy......Page 41
Box I.6. Free movement: EU enlargement and the priority given to EU citizens......Page 44
Figure I.12. Composite Leading Indicator (amplitude adjusted), OECD and six major non-member countries......Page 46
3.2. Expected medium-term impact on the composition of migration flows......Page 48
Figure I.13. Entries under family reunion and permanent labour immigration in France, 1963-1999......Page 49
Box I.8. The 1997 Asian financial crisis......Page 52
3.3. Expected medium-term impact on the integration of immigrants......Page 53
Figure I.14. Average annual employment earnings by immigrant class, by landing year and tax year, Canada, 1981-2004......Page 54
4.1. Global and regional outlook......Page 56
Table I.3. Percent change in real GDP in emerging and developing economies, by major regions or countries, 2006-2008 and projections for 2009......Page 57
4.2. Changes in flows: emigration and return migration......Page 58
Box I.9. The housing bubble and immigrants: Home ownership and negative equity......Page 60
Box I.10. Returns to enlargement countries in the wake of the economic crisis......Page 62
4.3. Remittances......Page 61
Figure I.16. Real exchange rate of the Mexican peso per unit US dollar, January 2003 to February 2009......Page 63
Figure I.18. Growth of remittance flows from Spain, March 2003 to December 2008......Page 64
Conclusions......Page 65
Notes......Page 67
References......Page 69
Annex I.A1. Quarterly Employment and Unemployment Rate (15-64 years old) by Place of Birth in Selected OECD Countries, 2007-2008......Page 73
Annex I.A2. Sectoral Distribution of Foreign-born Employment (15-64 years old), 2007......Page 75
Annex I.A3. Sensitivity Index to the Business Cycle......Page 76
Annex I.A4. Distribution of Foreign-born and Native-born Employment by Industry in November 2007, Observed Value and Counterfactual Variation of Foreign-born Employment between November 2007 and November 2008, United States......Page 77
Part II. Workers Crossing Borders: A Road-map for Managing Labour Migration......Page 79
Summary and recommendations......Page 80
1. Introduction......Page 85
Figure II.1. Size of the youth and retiring cohorts, OECD countries (excluding Mexico and Turkey), 1950-2050......Page 86
Table II.1. Expected size of the 20-24 youth cohort without migration, 2005-2025......Page 87
Figure II.2. Net change in the working-age population over the period 2005-2020, at 2001-2005 net migration levels......Page 89
Table II.2. The immigrant share of employment, overall and in low-skilled occupations, 2007......Page 90
Table II.3. Employment-to-population ratios of recent immigrants and native-born persons 15-64, 2007......Page 92
Notes......Page 93
2. Labour Migration: A Historical Overview......Page 95
Figure II.3. Net migration rates, traditional immigration and emigration OECD countries, 1956-2006......Page 96
Box II.1. Concepts underlying international migration movements......Page 97
Table II.4. The educational attainment of native-born persons and of non-OECD immigrants 25-44, 2006......Page 99
1. The labour migration situation until the mid-1990s......Page 100
2. Current labour migration movements......Page 102
2.1. Movements of the highly skilled......Page 104
Box II.2. Highly-skilled migrants in Denmark and Norway......Page 105
2.2. Lower-skilled migration......Page 107
3. Educational and labour market outcomes of immigrants and their children......Page 108
3.1. Labour market outcomes of immigrants......Page 109
Table II.6. Employment-population ratios of persons 15-64, by sex and region of birth, excluding full-time students, 2007......Page 110
Table II.7. Differences in employment-to-population ratios between the foreign-born and the native-born, persons 15-64, by educational attainment, 2007......Page 111
3.2. Educational and labour force outcomes for the children of immigrants......Page 113
Figure II.5. Percent of mothers in each educational attainment level, by immigrant status of children, selected OECD countries, PISA 2003......Page 114
Table II.8. Differences in PISA mathematics scores between children of immigrants and children of native-born, by birth status of children and highest parental education level, 2003......Page 115
Table II.9. Differences between PISA mathematics scores of children of immigrants and children of native-born and magnitude of effects due to specified background factors, by birth status of children, 2003......Page 116
4. Where things stand: Developing the right policies......Page 117
Notes......Page 118
3. Irregular Migration......Page 121
1. The extent of irregular migration......Page 122
Table II.10. Estimates of irregular migrant populations in selected OECD countries, various years......Page 123
2. Modalities of entry......Page 124
Table II.11. Visas granted for tourism, business, family visits and transit, selected OECD countries, 2007......Page 125
3. Irregular migration and legal work......Page 126
4. The scarcity of legal entry channels......Page 127
Box II.3. Are immigrants taking jobs for which there are not enough native workers?......Page 129
Table II.12. Factors associated with the share of employment in a given year accounted for by immigrants who entered over the recent period, by occupation, selected EU countries and the United States......Page 130
5. The difficulties of offshore recruitment......Page 128
6. Irregular migration: A summary......Page 131
Box II.4. Regularisations: Rewarding illegality or a necessary evil?......Page 132
Notes......Page 133
4. A Framework for a Labour Migration Regime......Page 135
1. The identification of labour needs......Page 136
1.1. Employment tests and shortage lists......Page 137
Box II.5. The establishment of a shortage list for the United Kingdom......Page 139
Box II.6. Auctioning work permits......Page 141
1.2. Caps and quotas......Page 142
2. The issue of recruitment......Page 144
2.2. Recruitment: In-country or abroad......Page 145
Box II.7. The Spanish system for recruitment in the country of origin......Page 150
3.1. The verification of residence status......Page 152
3.2. Workplace enforcement......Page 153
Box II.8. Workplace enforcement measures planned (2009) in the European Union......Page 154
Notes......Page 155
5. The Issue of Temporary Versus Permanent Migration......Page 157
1. The transition from temporary to permanent......Page 158
2. Temporary migration: The current view......Page 159
3. Constraints on temporary migration programmes......Page 160
5. More flexibility with regard to temporary mobility of highly-skilled workers......Page 161
Notes......Page 162
6. Specificities in Managing Highly-skilled Migration......Page 163
1. Attracting highly-skilled immigrants......Page 164
Box II.9. Attracting and retaining the very highly skilled......Page 165
2. Language proficiency issues......Page 166
3.1. Region-based migration......Page 168
Box II.10. Attracting talent to local areas......Page 169
4.1. Favouring employer-driven migration......Page 170
4.2. The assessment and recognition of foreign qualifications......Page 171
Box II.11. Programmes to assist highly-skilled immigrants to make the transition into employment......Page 173
4.3. The migration of international students......Page 172
Box II.12. Student enrolment and stay......Page 176
Table II.14. International student enrolment (2006) and simulation of student migration assuming an enrolment of 5 international students per 1 000 population and current Australian stay rates......Page 177
Notes......Page 178
7. Ensuring the Integration of Immigrants and their Children......Page 179
Box II.13. Migration policy and screening of low-educated migrants......Page 181
Table II.15. Educational levels of immigrants in occupations of different skill levels, southern Europe (2006) and the United States (2007)......Page 182
1. The question of long-term employability......Page 180
Figure II.7. Employment-population ratios of native-born (NB) and foreign-born (FB) persons, by age and educational attainment, northern European countries, 2006......Page 183
2. Addressing the unfavourable outcomes for children of low-educated immigrants......Page 184
8. Migration and Development......Page 187
1. The impact of international migration on origin countries, migrants and their families......Page 188
1.1. Remittances......Page 189
Table II.16. Remittance flows to developing countries, 2002-2008 (USD billion)......Page 190
1.3. Return migration and transfers of skills and technology......Page 191
Table II.17. Emigration rates of the highly qualified to OECD countries, ca 2000......Page 192
2.1. The extent and distribution of possible migration flows......Page 193
2.2. A change in source countries?......Page 194
Table II.18b. Countries with expatriation rates to OECD countries greater than 5%, 2001......Page 195
2.3. Temporary vs permanent migration......Page 196
3. Favouring gains from labour migration with a view to improving policy coherence for development......Page 197
3.1. Reducing obstacles to labour mobility......Page 198
3.3. Increasing the available supply of skills in developing countries......Page 199
3.5. Increasing international student enrolment (OECD, 2008f)......Page 200
3.6. Developing pre-migration education or training for permanent migrants......Page 201
Notes......Page 202
9. Summary and Conclusions......Page 203
References......Page 219