Hunting Causes and Using Them: Approaches in Philosophy and Economics

Cover......Page 1
Half-title......Page 3
Title......Page 5
Copyright......Page 6
Dedication......Page 7
Contents......Page 9
Acknowledgements......Page 11
Introduction......Page 13
Part I Plurality in causality......Page 19
1 Preamble......Page 21
2.1 Introduction......Page 23
2.2.1 Bayes-nets methods......Page 24
2.2.2 Modularity accounts......Page 25
2.2.3 Woodward’s invariance account......Page 28
2.2.5 Causal processes......Page 29
2.2.6 Hoover’s effective strategies account......Page 30
2.3 An alternative: thick causal concepts......Page 31
2.4 What job then does the label ‘causal’ do?......Page 34
3.1 The problem: evidence for use......Page 36
3.2.2 The straddler: the hypothetico-deductive method......Page 37
3.2.3 Narrow methods that clinch conclusions......Page 39
3.2.4 Broad methods that ‘vouch for’ conclusions......Page 45
3.3 Use......Page 49
3.3.1 What claim has been established?......Page 50
3.3.2 Are results stable under interventions?......Page 52
3.3.4 Counterfactuals and causal models......Page 53
3.4 Conclusion......Page 54
4.1 Introduction......Page 55
4.2.1 Causation: one word, many things......Page 56
4.2.2 Causality: metaphysics and methods......Page 57
4.2.4 Causal laws and effective strategies......Page 58
4.2.5 Hunting causes versus using them......Page 60
4.2.6 Causality: metaphysics, methods and use......Page 61
4.2.7 Where is the theory in our ‘theories’ of causality?......Page 62
4.3 Conclusion......Page 64
Part II Case studies: Bayes nets and invariance theories......Page 67
5 Preamble......Page 69
6.1 The basic question: can we get to causality via Bayes nets?......Page 73
6.2 The call for explanation......Page 74
6.3.1 Where have all the caveats gone?......Page 75
6.3.2 Can the caveats be ignored?......Page 78
6.4 From probabilistic dependence to causality......Page 84
6.4.1 Why factors may be dependent......Page 85
6.4.2 Other reasons why factors may be dependent......Page 88
6.5 Analysis......Page 90
7.2 What is modularity?......Page 92
7.3 The method of concomitant variation......Page 94
7.4 Three peculiarities of epistemic convenience......Page 97
7.5 Motivations for epistemic convenience: ‘excessive’
operationalism......Page 99
7.6 Motivations for epistemic convenience: ‘excessive’ pragmatism......Page 103
7.8.1 Hausman’s claim......Page 104
7.9 Conclusion......Page 108
8.1 Introduction......Page 109
8.2 Intervention, invariance and modularity......Page 111
8.3 The causal Markov condition: CM1 and CM2......Page 118
8.4 From MOD to the causal Markov condition and back......Page 120
8.5 A second argument for CM2......Page 127
8.6 The proof of the causal Markov condition for
probabilistic causes......Page 129
8.7 ‘Cartwright’s objection’ defended......Page 133
8.8 Metaphysical defences of the causal Markov condition......Page 134
APPENDIX PROOF OF CM1 FOR LINEAR DETERMINISTIC SYSTEMS WHERE THE EXOGENOUS VARIABLES ARE INDEPENDENT IN ALL COMBINATIONS......Page 141
9.1 Introduction......Page 144
9.2.1 Manipulability......Page 146
9.2.2 Testability......Page 147
9.3 Increasingly weaker theses......Page 149
9.4 The proof is invalid......Page 150
9.5 MOD is implausible......Page 153
9.6 Two alternative claims and their defects......Page 154
9.7 A true claim and a valid argument......Page 156
9.8 Indeterminism......Page 159
9.9 Overall conclusion......Page 163
10.1.1 The project......Page 164
10.1.2 The nature of deterministic causal systems......Page 166
10.2.1 The first definitions......Page 167
10.2.2 The first theorem......Page 168
10.3.1 Systems that are nice for us......Page 172
10.3.2 The second definitions......Page 175
10.3.3 The second theorems......Page 177
10.4 Final remark......Page 182
Part III Causal theories in economics......Page 185
11 Preamble......Page 187
12.1 Introduction......Page 190
12.2 Causes and probabilities......Page 191
12.3 The stability of causal order......Page 197
12.4 Conclusions......Page 200
13 How to get causes from probabilities: Cartwright
on Simon on causation......Page 202
13.1 Cautionary lessons for econometrics......Page 210
APPENDIX......Page 214
14.1 Three theses......Page 215
14.2 What is strategy causation and why is it good for policy?......Page 216
14.3 Two examples where strategy and production come apart......Page 218
14.3.1 Joint effects......Page 219
14.3.2 The equivalence problem......Page 220
14.4 Modularity – a reconciliation of production and strategy?......Page 222
14.6 Can strategy relations be rock bottom?......Page 225
14.7 The range of production relations versus strategy relations......Page 226
15.1 Introduction......Page 229
15.2 External validity: a problem for models and experiments alike......Page 231
15.3 Tendencies and Galilean idealizations......Page 233
15.4 How deductivity can be secured and at what cost......Page 237
15.5 Conclusion......Page 244
16.1 Introduction......Page 248
16.2.1 The need for a causal model......Page 249
16.2.2 What can be changed?......Page 251
16.2.3 What is envisaged to change?......Page 253
16.3.1 LeRoy......Page 256
16.3.2 Heckman......Page 258
16.3.3 Cartwright......Page 262
16.3.4 Hendry and Hoover......Page 263
16.4 Epistemic convenience versus external validity......Page 266
16.5 Causal decision-theory......Page 270
16.6 Conclusion......Page 272
Bibliography......Page 274
Index......Page 280