How to Do Systems Analysis (Wiley Series in Systems Engineering and Management)

HOW TO DO SYSTEMS ANALYSIS......Page 3
Contents......Page 7
Preface......Page 13
A Personal Note from William T. Scherer......Page 17
A Personal Note from William F. Gibson......Page 19
A Personal Note from Scott F. Ferber......Page 21
Original Preface from Jack Gibson......Page 23
Acknowledgments......Page 25
1 Introduction......Page 27
1.1 What Is a System?......Page 28
1.2 Terminology Confusion......Page 30
1.3 Systems Analysis Equals Operations Research Plus Policy Analysis......Page 32
1.4 Attributes of Large-Scale Systems......Page 33
1.5 Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS): An Example of a Large-Scale System......Page 34
1.6 Systems Integration......Page 37
1.7 What Makes a “Systems Analysis” Different?......Page 38
1.8 Distant Roots of Systems Analysis......Page 40
1.9 Immediate Precursors to Systems Analysis......Page 41
1.10 Development of Systems Analysis As a Distinct Discipline: The Influence of RAND......Page 43
Historical Case Study: IIASA (A)......Page 46
Exercises......Page 50
Historical Case Study: IIASA (B)......Page 52
2.1 The Systems Analysis Method: Six Major Phases......Page 55
2.2 The Goal-centered or Top-Down Approach......Page 61
2.3 The Index of Performance Concept......Page 66
2.4 Developing Alternative Scenarios......Page 70
2.5 Ranking Alternatives......Page 71
2.6 Iteration and the “Error-embracing” Approach......Page 72
2.7 The Action Phase: The Life Cycle of a System......Page 74
Exercises......Page 76
Case Study: Methodologies or Chaos? Part A......Page 77
Case Study: Methodologies or Chaos? Part B......Page 78
Case Study: Wal-Mart Crisis!......Page 79
3.1 Seven Steps in Goal Development......Page 81
3.2 On Generalizing the Question......Page 85
3.3 The Descriptive Scenario......Page 87
3.4 The Normative Scenario......Page 88
3.5 The Axiological Component......Page 89
3.6 Developing an Objectives Tree......Page 92
3.7 Fitch’s Goals for an Urbanizing America: An Example of Objectives Tree Construction......Page 98
3.8 Content Analysis of Fitch’s Goals......Page 105
3.9 Validate......Page 108
3.10 Iterate......Page 109
Case Study: Distance Learning in the Future?......Page 110
Historical Case Study: Goals of 4C, Inc.......Page 111
4.1 Introduction......Page 115
4.2 Desirable Characteristics for an Index of Performance......Page 117
4.3 Economic Criteria......Page 121
4.4 Compound Interest......Page 122
4.5 Four Common Criteria of Economic Efficiency......Page 124
4.6 Is There a Problem with Multiple Criteria?......Page 126
4.7 What Is Wrong with the B–C Ratio?......Page 131
4.8 Can IRR Be Fixed?......Page 133
4.9 Expected Monetary Value......Page 135
4.10 Nonmonetary Performance Indices......Page 137
Exercises......Page 140
Case Study: Sky High Airlines......Page 142
Case Study: Measuring the Process and Outcomes of Regional Transportation Collaboration......Page 148
Case Study: Baseball Free Agent Draft......Page 149
5.2 The Classical Approach to Creativity......Page 155
5.3 Concepts in Creativity......Page 157
5.4 Brainstorming......Page 158
5.5 Brainwriting......Page 161
5.7 Zwicky’s Morphological Box......Page 163
5.8 The Options Field/Options Profile Approach......Page 165
5.9 Computer Creativity......Page 169
5.10 Computer Simulation: a Tool in Option Development......Page 170
5.11 Why a Dynamic Simulation for Creating Options?......Page 171
5.12 Context-Free Simulation Models?......Page 173
5.13 Bottom-Up Simulation or Top-Down?......Page 174
5.14 Lessons from the Susquehanna River Basin Model......Page 177
5.15 The Forrester Urban Model (FUM) and Societal Values......Page 179
5.16 Extensions and Variations......Page 183
Exercises......Page 185
Historical Case Study: Real-Time Television Link with Mars Orbiter......Page 186
Historical Case Study: A Highway Vehicle Simulator RFP From DOT......Page 206
6.1 Introduction......Page 211
6.2 Rating and Ranking Methods......Page 212
6.3 Condorcet and Arrow Voting Paradoxes......Page 214
6.4 A MultiStage Rating Process......Page 218
6.5 Decision Analysis......Page 223
6.6 Basic Axioms of Decision Theory......Page 225
6.7 Properties of Utility Functions......Page 229
6.8 Constructing a Utility Curve......Page 231
6.9 Some Decision Analysis Classic Examples......Page 233
6.10 Estimation Theory in Decision Analysis......Page 239
6.11 Some Practical Problems with Decision Analysis......Page 247
6.12 Practical Trade Studies......Page 250
Exercises......Page 257
Case Study: Training Center Location......Page 260
Case Study: Corporate Headquarters Location......Page 261
Case Study: Business School Selection......Page 262
7.1 Iteration......Page 265
7.3 The Transition Scenario......Page 267
7.4 The Gantt Chart......Page 268
7.5 Interaction Matrices......Page 269
7.6 The Delta Chart......Page 274
7.7 The Audit Trail......Page 276
7.8 Cost of Failure to Stay on Schedule......Page 278
7.10 Sign-Offs by Cooperating Groups......Page 279
Exercises......Page 280
8.2 Personal Style in an Interdisciplinary Team......Page 283
8.3 “Out-Scoping” and “In-Scoping” in a System Study......Page 286
8.4 Building the Systems Team......Page 287
8.5 Tips on Managing the Team......Page 289
8.6 Functional or Project Management?......Page 290
8.7 How to Make an Effective Oral Presentation......Page 292
8.8 How to Write a Report......Page 299
9.1 Introduction......Page 303
9.2 Project Management Versus Process Management......Page 305
9.3 The Hersey–Blanchard Four-Mode Theory......Page 307
9.4 Relation of Management Style to Project Management......Page 311
9.5 Preliminary Project Planning......Page 312
9.6 Dealing with Conflict in Project Management......Page 313
9.7 Life-Cycle Planning and Design......Page 314
9.8 PERT/CPM Program Planning Method: An Example......Page 318
9.9 Quality Control in Systems Projects......Page 323
Case Study: Project Management......Page 324
10.1 Introduction......Page 327
10.2 Rule 1: There Always Is a Client......Page 328
10.3 Rule 2: Your Client Does Not Understand His Own Problem......Page 329
10.4 Rule 3: The Original Problem Statement is too Specific: You Must Generalize the Problem to Give it Contextual Integrity......Page 330
10.5 Rule 4: The Client Does Not Understand the Concept of the Index of Performance......Page 332
10.6 Rule 5: You are the Analyst, Not the Decision-Maker......Page 335
10.7 Rule 6: Meet the Time Deadline and the Cost Budget......Page 336
10.8 Rule 7: Take a Goal-Centered Approach to the Problem, Not a Technology-Centered or Chronological Approach......Page 337
10.9 Rule 8: Nonusers Must be Considered in the Analysis and in the Final Recommendations......Page 338
10.11 Rule 10: The Role of Decision-Maker in Public Systems is Often a Confused One......Page 340
References......Page 345
Index......Page 357