Hindsight Bias

Book Cover......Page 1
Title......Page 2
Copyright......Page 4
Designs and definition......Page 5
Relevance and related phenomena......Page 6
Computational models......Page 7
Motivational accounts and individual differences......Page 8
REFERENCES......Page 9
SARA: A cognitive process model to simulate the anchoring effect and hindsight bias......Page 11
Overview of the model......Page 12
Organisation of knowledge......Page 13
Basic cognitive processes......Page 14
SARA at work......Page 15
SARA’s parameters......Page 17
Simulation of a hindsight-bias experiment......Page 18
Explanatory power of SARA......Page 19
SARA’s behaviour......Page 22
Limitations of the model......Page 25
REFERENCES......Page 26
Hindsight bias: How knowledge and heuristics affect our reconstruction of the past......Page 29
EXPERT PERFORMANCE......Page 30
Time 1: Original choice......Page 31
Time 3: Reconstruction......Page 33
THE RAFT MODEL: EMPIRICAL SUPPORT......Page 34
Knowledge: Amount, accuracy, and updating......Page 35
SIMULATION 1: HOW DOES AMOUNT OF KNOWLEDGE AFFECT HINDSIGHT BIAS?......Page 37
SIMULATION 2: IS THE EFFECT OF KNOWLEDGE ON HINDSIGHT BIAS ROBUST ACROSS DIFFERENT HEURISTICS?......Page 38
SIMULATION 3: HOW DOES ACCURACY OF KNOWLEDGE AFFECT HINDSIGHT BIAS?......Page 39
A first test of the expertise prediction and the issue of policy capturing......Page 41
Alternative accounts......Page 42
New questions......Page 43
Hindsight bias: Wagering on the future......Page 44
REFERENCES......Page 45
FEATURES AND DETERMINANTS OF ANCHOR PLAUSIBILITY......Page 48
Source......Page 49
Anchor distance......Page 50
Apparatus......Page 51
Dependent variables......Page 52
Analysis......Page 53
Determinants and features of anchor plausibility......Page 54
Determinants of hindsight bias......Page 55
Determinants of anchor plausibility......Page 57
Determinants of hindsight bias......Page 58
Conclusion......Page 60
REFERENCES......Page 61
THEORETICAL EXPLANATIONS OF THE HINDSIGHT BIAS......Page 62
Memory impairment......Page 63
BIASED RECONSTRUCTION VERSUS MEMORY IMPAIRMENT......Page 64
BASIC RESEARCH PARADIGMS IN HINDSIGHT BIAS RESEARCH......Page 65
Method......Page 66
Results......Page 67
Discussion......Page 68
EXPERIMENT 2......Page 69
Method......Page 70
Results......Page 71
Discussion......Page 73
REFERENCES......Page 74
THE KNEW-IT-ALL-ALONG PARADIGM......Page 77
Approaches to the knew-it-all-along effect......Page 78
Method......Page 79
Discussion......Page 80
Method......Page 81
GENERAL DISCUSSION......Page 82
REFERENCES......Page 83
Surprise, defence, or making sense: What removes hindsight bias?......Page 86
THE ROLE OF SURPRISE......Page 87
A SENSE-MAKING MODEL OF HINDSIGHT BIAS......Page 88
EXPERIMENT 1......Page 90
Results......Page 91
EXPERIMENT 2......Page 92
Method......Page 93
Results......Page 94
Discussion......Page 96
EXPERIMENT 3......Page 97
Results and discussion......Page 98
Method......Page 99
Results and discussion......Page 100
The cognitive perspective: Outcome surprisingness......Page 101
The motivational perspective: Defensive processing......Page 102
REFERENCES......Page 103
“I couldn’t have seen it coming”: The impact of negative self-relevant outcomes on retrospections about foreseeability......Page 105
Procedure......Page 108
Effects on foreseeability......Page 109
The effect of self-relevant outcomes, negative and positive......Page 110
Retrospective judgements of foreseeability versus hindsight bias......Page 111
Self-related concerns and recent work on hindsight bias......Page 112
REFERENCES......Page 113
Hindsight bias after receiving self-relevant health risk information: A motivational perspective......Page 115
THE PRESENT RESEARCH......Page 117
Participants......Page 118
Procedure......Page 119
Overall frequency of hindsight bias as a function of time......Page 120
Biased judgements in hindsight as a function of feedback valence and measurement point in time......Page 121
Unexpected cholesterol feedback: Feelings of threat and surprise......Page 123
Hindsight bias and perceived threat......Page 124
Hindsight bias and self-regulation......Page 125
Hindsight bias and feelings of surprise......Page 126
Limitations of the study......Page 127
REFERENCES......Page 128
Personality differences in hindsight bias......Page 131
SELF-PRESENTATION......Page 132
NEED FOR COGNITION......Page 134
FIELD DEPENDENCE......Page 135
Experimental materials......Page 136
Calculation of the dependent measures......Page 137
Reliability of hindsight scores......Page 138
Individual differences......Page 139
DISCUSSION......Page 141
REFERENCES......Page 143
Hindsight bias in political elections......Page 146
Method......Page 147
Results and discussion......Page 148
STUDY 2:  THE NORDRHEIN-WESTFALEN LAND PARLIAMENT ELECTION IN MAY 2000......Page 149
Method......Page 150
Results and discussion......Page 151
Method......Page 152
GENERAL DISCUSSION......Page 153
The subjective hindsight experience......Page 154
REFERENCES......Page 156