Handbook of Climate Change and Agroecosystems: Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation

Contents......Page 10
Preface......Page 6
Acknowledgments......Page 8
Introduction Climate Change and Agroecosystems: Key Issues......Page 14
Structure......Page 15
The Climate Change Challenge......Page 17
Section I Broad-scale Interactions......Page 20
Introduction......Page 22
Carbon Exchange in the Terrestrial Domain......Page 23
Human Management of Soils......Page 27
Feedbacks in a Changing Climate......Page 29
Agricultural Practices Affecting Soil Organic Matter......Page 30
Conclusions and Recommendations......Page 31
References......Page 32
Introduction......Page 34
Human Influences on the Global Nitrogen Budget: Direct Effects......Page 36
Nitrogen-stimulated Carbon Storage in Terrestrial Ecosystems: China, A Case Study......Page 37
Climate Change, Nitrogen Cycling and Carbon Storage in Forest Ecosystems......Page 39
A Coupled Plant-Soil Model......Page 42
Blueprint for Future Research......Page 44
References......Page 46
Land, Water, and Climate......Page 50
Yield Trends......Page 52
Yield Potential and Yield Plateaus......Page 54
Effects of CO2 and Climate on Crop Yields......Page 55
Ensuring Adequate Food Supply in a Changing Climate......Page 57
Conclusions and Future Directions......Page 61
Glossary......Page 62
References......Page 63
Section II Measuring and Modeling CO2 and Temperature Effects......Page 66
Introduction......Page 68
General Responses to CO2 Enrichment and Temperature......Page 69
SPAR Chambers......Page 72
Cotton (Gossypium hirsutum)......Page 77
Potato (Solanum tuberosum)......Page 79
Rice (Oryza sativa)......Page 80
Soybean (Glycine max)......Page 83
Big bluestem (Andropogon gerardii)......Page 84
Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor)......Page 85
Potato (Solanum tuberosum)......Page 86
Rice (Oryza sativa)......Page 87
Maize (Zea mays)......Page 88
Big bluestem (Andropogon gerardii)......Page 89
Current and Future SPAR Chamber Research......Page 90
Modeling and Simulation Approaches......Page 91
Conclusions......Page 94
References......Page 95
Introduction......Page 100
Methods......Page 101
Results......Page 102
Conclusions......Page 116
References......Page 117
Introduction......Page 122
Methods, Levels, and Data for Testing Crop Model Responses to Climatic Factors......Page 123
Understanding how Climatic Factors affect Crop Processes......Page 125
Testing Crop Models at Level of Theory and Instantaneous Processes: Example of Testing Leaf Photosynthesis Response to CO2......Page 126
Testing with In-season or End-of-season Outcomes (Metadata)......Page 129
Testing CROPGRO Soybean, Peanut, Dry Bean and Cotton Models with End-of-season Metadata on CO2 Response......Page 130
Testing the CERES Models with End-of-season Metadata on CO2 Response......Page 131
Observed and Model-Simulated Interaction of CO2 Enrichment with Drought Stress......Page 133
Testing Model Response to Temperature: Data on Processes and End-of-Season Metadata......Page 134
Testing Effects of Rising CO2 and Rainfall on Crop Transpiration and Yield......Page 136
A Discussion of Critical Needs......Page 138
References......Page 139
Introduction......Page 144
Crop Models......Page 146
Characteristics of Crop Models Used for Climate Decision Support......Page 148
Uncertainty and risk associated with climate variability......Page 151
Use of seasonal forecasts for managing climatic risks......Page 153
Research on climate change impacts and adaptation for policy support......Page 156
Lessons from past experiences......Page 158
Socio-cultural factors that influence the utility of crop models for farmers......Page 159
The Need for a Social Learning Approach to Crop Model-Based Decision Support......Page 160
Discussion and Future Directions......Page 162
References......Page 164
Section III Climate, Pests, and Regions......Page 172
Introduction......Page 174
Future Climate......Page 175
A new approach to determining pathways of future concentrations......Page 181
Uncertainties Concerning Future Climate......Page 182
Downscaling GCM Simulations......Page 183
Higher-resolution atmospheric model simulations and variable-resolution stretched grids
......Page 184
Statistical downscaling......Page 185
Use of Climate Model Results for Agricultural Impacts and Adaptation Assessments......Page 186
Future Research in Projecting the Future......Page 187
References......Page 188
Introduction......Page 192
Projections of precipitation amount......Page 194
Projections of precipitation distribution......Page 195
Overall Water Limitations to Crop Yield......Page 196
Sustaining Crop Yields with Decreasing Precipitation......Page 198
Conclusions......Page 201
References......Page 202
Introduction......Page 204
Implications for Agriculture......Page 205
Implications for Rangelands, Forests and Pastures......Page 210
Implications for Weed Management......Page 211
Adaptation and Mitigation......Page 214
Uncertainties and Critical Needs......Page 217
References......Page 218
Introduction......Page 222
Field Observations......Page 224
Remote Sensing......Page 225
Statistical Ecological Niche Models......Page 226
Ecological Niche Models based on Physiological Indices (ENPIM)......Page 227
Medical and veterinary vector-borne diseases......Page 230
Physiologically Based Demographic Ecological Niche Models (PBDM)......Page 231
Olive/olive fly system......Page 234
Olive flowering......Page 237
Olive fly abundance......Page 238
Discussion......Page 241
Conclusion......Page 243
References......Page 244
Introduction......Page 252
Data Analysis......Page 254
Yield Trends......Page 255
Yield Deviations......Page 257
Frequency Distribution of Yield Deviations......Page 260
Climate Impacts on Crop Yields......Page 262
Challenges and Opportunities......Page 264
References......Page 265
Introduction......Page 268
Data and Methods......Page 270
Results......Page 272
Climate Interactions with other Agricultural Trends......Page 275
How to Adapt?......Page 276
References......Page 277
Section IV Adaptation and Mitigation......Page 280
Introduction......Page 282
Resilience and Adaptive Capacity......Page 284
Adaptation Toolkit......Page 289
Applications of Resilience and Adaptive Capacity......Page 290
A Note on the Context of Adaptation......Page 293
Incorporating Uncertainty into Adaptation Science......Page 294
Redesigning Agriculture to Meet the Future......Page 295
References......Page 298
Introduction......Page 300
Agriculture as a Source and Sink of Atmospheric CO2 and Other Gases......Page 302
Key Issues......Page 304
The Long-Term versus the Short-Term Global Carbon Cycles......Page 305
Principal Processes Affecting the Long-Term Cycle......Page 306
Weathering......Page 307
Oceanic sink......Page 308
Positive Feedback from Frozen Soils and Peatlands......Page 309
Soil Carbon, Climate Change and Global Food Security......Page 310
Potential of Carbon Sequestration in World Soils......Page 311
Carbon Sequestration in World Soils......Page 312
Conclusion......Page 314
References......Page 315
Introduction......Page 320
Measurement of Soil Carbon Changes......Page 328
Model-based Estimation......Page 330
Empirically based model approach — IPCC Tier I/Tier II method......Page 331
Process-based model approach — COMET-VR......Page 333
Ground-based observational databases......Page 339
Remote sensing......Page 340
Integrated Measurement and Modeling for Soil Carbon Quantification......Page 341
Concluding Remarks......Page 343
References......Page 344
Introduction......Page 356
Stability of Biochar......Page 359
Effects of Biochar on Gas Exchange from Soil......Page 362
Life-cycle Emission Reduction......Page 363
Biochar Effects on Soil Health......Page 365
Handling and Production......Page 368
Carbon Trading......Page 369
Safe Exploration of the Global Biochar Potential — A Road Map......Page 370
References......Page 372
Introduction......Page 378
Soil Organic Matter Dynamics and Soil C Stabilization......Page 380
Efficacy and Trade-offs of Management Options for Soil C Sequestration......Page 383
Conservation tillage......Page 384
Application of organic amendments (crop residues, cover crops, and composted manure)......Page 386
Biochar......Page 388
Constraints to the efficacy of soil C sequestration for climate change mitigation......Page 389
Additionality......Page 391
Uncertainty and discounting......Page 392
Maintaining soil C levels......Page 393
Managing organic residues in tropical agroecosystems......Page 394
Knowledge Gaps and Future Research......Page 396
Concluding Remarks......Page 398
References......Page 399
Introduction and Terminology......Page 406
General Limitations of Soil Carbon Sequestration......Page 407
Conversion of arable land to grassland or forest......Page 409
Changing from conventional cultivation to minimum tillage in arable agriculture......Page 410
Addition of manure or crop residues to soil......Page 412
Conclusions......Page 413
References......Page 414
Introduction......Page 416
The Economic Context for Future Climate Change......Page 419
Methods for Climate Impact Assessment......Page 424
A Brief Review of Economics Research on Climate and Agriculture......Page 426
Uncertainty in future climate......Page 429
A multiple-stress environment......Page 432
Mitigation, adaptation, and agriculture — potential for biofuels......Page 434
Conclusions......Page 436
References......Page 438
More complete understanding of the carbon and nitrogen cycles......Page 442
High CO2 experiments......Page 443
Developing climate change scenarios for agriculture......Page 444
Assessing crop-pest interactions......Page 445
Fostering mitigation......Page 446
Integrating economics......Page 447
General......Page 448
Index......Page 450