Guidelines for Developing Quantitative Safety Risk Criteria

GUIDELINES FOR DEVELOPING QUANTITATIVE SAFETY RISK CRITERIA......Page 5
CONTENTS......Page 7
Preface......Page 15
Acknowledgments......Page 17
List of Tables......Page 21
List of Figures......Page 23
Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 27
Glossary......Page 31
1.1 What is Risk?......Page 39
1.1.1 Risk Basics......Page 40
1.1.2 Why is Risk Assessment Important?......Page 42
1.2 Scope of these Guidelines......Page 45
1.3.1 What these Guidelines Are Intended to Achieve......Page 46
1.3.2 What These Guidelines Do Not Intend......Page 47
2.1.1 The Early History......Page 49
2.1.2 The Beginnings of the Modern Consideration of Technological Risk......Page 50
2.1.3 Risk Assessment in the Process Industries......Page 51
2.2.1 PHAs as an Example of Qualitative Risk Assessments......Page 53
2.2.2 Semi-Quantitative Risk Matrices......Page 55
2.2.4 A Brief Comparison of Qualitative and Quantitative Risk Assessment......Page 58
2.3.1 Consequence Modeling......Page 59
2.3.2 Frequency Modeling......Page 64
2.3.3 Developing a Comprehensive QRA......Page 67
2.3.4 Standardization of Approach......Page 68
2.4.1 Individual Risk......Page 69
2.4.2 Societal Risk......Page 73
2.5 The Role of QRA and Risk Criteria......Page 75
2.5.1 Impact of Evolving Consensus Standards and Recommended Practices......Page 76
2.6.1 What Is ‘Risk Tolerance’?......Page 77
2.6.2 Public Values as the Basis for Risk Criteria......Page 78
2.6.3 Public Perceptions of Risk......Page 79
2.7 Definition and Applications of the “As Low as Reasonably Practicable” (ALARP) Principle......Page 82
2.8.1 Sources of Uncertainty......Page 84
2.8.2 Addressing Uncertainty......Page 85
3.1.1 The Value of Risk Criteria Precedents......Page 87
3.1.2 How This Chapter Is Organized......Page 88
3.2 The Evolution of Risk Criteria in the UK......Page 89
3.2.2 Health and Safety Commission/Advisory Committee on Major Hazards – 1976......Page 90
3.2.3 Royal Society – 1983......Page 91
3.2.4 Health and Safety Executive – 1988......Page 92
3.2.6 Health and Safety Committee/Advisory Committee on Dangerous Substances – 1991......Page 93
3.2.8 Health and Safety Executive – 2001......Page 95
3.2.9 Current Guidance to Industry and HSE Inspectors......Page 97
3.3.1 Groningen – 1978......Page 98
3.3.2 Dutch Ministry for Housing, Spatial Planning, and the Environment – 1984......Page 99
3.3.3 Dutch Ministry for Housing, Spatial Planning, and the Environment – 1988/1989......Page 101
3.3.5 Dutch Ministry of Transport, Public Works, and Water Management – 1996......Page 102
3.3.7 Dutch Ministry for Housing, Spatial Planning, and the Environment – 2004......Page 103
3.4.2 Distinction between Individual Risk Criteria for New and Existing Establishments......Page 105
3.4.6 A Perspective on the Numerical Disparities between the UK and Dutch Criteria......Page 107
3.4.7 Difficulties in Satisfying the More Stringent Dutch Risk Criteria......Page 109
3.5.1 Balancing Individual and Societal Risk Perspectives......Page 111
3.5.4 Rigid Limits Versus Advisory Goals......Page 113
3.5.6 Basis for Calculating Risks......Page 114
3.5.8 Application of New Risk Criteria to Old Establishments......Page 115
3.5.9 Risk Criteria for Transportation Risk......Page 116
4 CONSIDERATIONS IN DEVELOPING RISK CRITERIA......Page 117
4.1 Determine the Need to Establish Risk Criteria......Page 118
4.3.1 On-site populations......Page 120
4.3.2 Off-site populations......Page 121
4.4.2 Will the Risk Criteria Define a De Minimis Level of Risk?......Page 122
4.5 Determine Whether Risk Criteria Will Distinguish Between New and Existing Facilities......Page 123
4.7 Develop Individual Risk Criteria......Page 125
4.9.1 Relating Risk Criteria to Commonly Tolerated Levels of Risk......Page 126
4.9.2 Relating Risk Criteria to Societal Values Reflected in Regulatory Precedents......Page 128
4.10 Decide on a Philosophy for Apportioning and Scaling the Risk Criteria......Page 129
4.10.1 Apportioning and Scaling Societal Risk Criteria......Page 131
4.10.2 Apportioning Risk Criteria to Individual Scenarios......Page 133
4.11 Periodically Revalidate the Risk Criteria......Page 136
4.12 Matching the Risk Criteria with the System and with the Risk Estimation Methodology......Page 138
4.12.3 Clearly Defining the Basis for the Risk Criteria......Page 139
4.13 Risk Criteria in the Multinational Context......Page 140
4.14 Consideration of Short Duration/Higher Risk Activities......Page 141
5.1 Fostering the Application of Risk-Based Decision Making......Page 143
5.2 Enhancing Risk Assessment Technology......Page 144
A.1 Construction of an F-N Curve to Display Data......Page 147
A.1.2 Calculating and Plotting an Example F-N Curve......Page 148
A.2.1 Defining the Risk Criteria F-N Curve......Page 151
A.2.2 The Significance of the Slope of the F-N Curve......Page 152
A.3 F-N Criteria Slope Selection......Page 154
Appendix B: Survey of Worldwide Risk Criteria Applications......Page 157
B.1.1 Health and Safety Executive (HSE) – 1989......Page 158
B.1.2 HSE – 2008......Page 162
B.2 Land Use Planning Criteria in the Netherlands......Page 164
B.3 Hong Kong......Page 165
B.4 States of Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil......Page 168
B.5 Singapore......Page 171
B.7.1 Western Australia......Page 173
B.7.2 New South Wales......Page 176
B.7.4 Victoria......Page 179
B.8 Canada......Page 181
B.9 France......Page 182
B.10 Switzerland......Page 185
B.11 Santa Barbara County, California, USA......Page 186
B.12.1 Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)......Page 189
B.12.2 Department of Energy (DOE)......Page 190
B.12.3 Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)......Page 191
B.12.5 Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA)......Page 193
B.12.6 Department of Defense (DOD)......Page 194
B.13 New Jersey, USA......Page 196
B.14 International Maritime Organization (IMO)......Page 197
B.16 Summary......Page 199
C.1.1 Development of Corporate Criteria......Page 209
C.1.2 Applying the Criteria within the Businesses......Page 211
C.1.3 Validation of the Criteria against Regulatory Precedents......Page 213
2.2.1 Principles......Page 215
2.2.3 Company Risk Criteria Based upon Regulatory Precedents......Page 216
2.2.4 Basis for Selection of Risk Criteria......Page 218
C.3.1 Development of Company Elevation Criteria......Page 219
C.3.2 Applying the Criteria......Page 220
C.3.3 Use of QRA and Risk Elevation Criteria......Page 221
C.4.2 Initial Use of Qualitative Tools......Page 222
C.4.3 Initial Use of Quantitative Tools......Page 223
C.4.4 Establishing Risk Tolerance Criteria......Page 224
REFERENCES......Page 229
INDEX......Page 245