Globalization and Growth: Implications for a Post-crisis World

Contents......Page 7
Preface......Page 13
Workshop Participants......Page 19
Biographies of the Editors and Contributors......Page 25
Acknowledgments......Page 31
Abbreviations......Page 33
Introduction......Page 35
1 Globalization Revisited......Page 37
PART 1 The Global Financial Crisis: Causes, Mitigation, and Reform......Page 69
2 The Crisis of 2008: Structural Lessons for and from Economics......Page 71
3 Financial Innovation, Regulation, and Reform......Page 81
4 Financial Crisis and Global Governance: A Network Analysis......Page 103
5 Understanding Global Imbalances......Page 129
6 Macro Crises and Targeting Transfers to the Poor......Page 143
PART 2 How to Foster Real Growth......Page 157
7 Growth after the Crisis......Page 159
8 Current Debates on Infrastructure Policy......Page 185
9 Exports of Manufactures and Economic Growth: The Fallacy of Composition Revisited......Page 229
10 Industry Growth and the Case for Countercyclical Stimulus Packages......Page 269
PART 3 Long-Term Challenges to Growth......Page 279
11 Greenhouse Emissions and Climate Change: Implications for Developing Countries and Public Policy......Page 281
12 Climate Change and Economic Growth......Page 319
13 Population Aging and Economic Growth......Page 331
Index......Page 363
4.1. Network Topology: Tradeoff between Efficiency and Robustness......Page 107
4.2. Expansion Process of an Epidemic......Page 115
7.1. Growth of GDP per Capita in Select Regions and Time Periods......Page 162
7.3. Relationship between Share of Industrial Employment in Total Employment and Economic Growth......Page 164
7.4. Net Capital Outflows and Growth in Various Countries, Pre-1990 and Post-1990......Page 169
7.5. Income Gradient of Industrial Shares in GDP......Page 173
7.6. Equilibrium in the Market for Tradables......Page 176
8.1. Infrastructure Projects with Private Participation in Developing Countries, by Sector, 1990–2005......Page 210
9.1. Manufactures as Percent of Total Exports, 1962–2004......Page 241
9.2. Appreciation against the U.S. Dollar and Change in Reserves Relative to Imports, End-2001 to End-2005......Page 261
9.3. U.S. Imports from Industrial, OPEC, and Other Developing Countries, 1991–2005......Page 263
9.4. U.S. Imports from Principal Supplying Economies, 1996–2005......Page 265
11.1. Atmospheric CO2 Concentration and Temperature: Four Ice-Age Cycles......Page 283
11.3. Atmospheric CO2 Concentration and Cumulative Emissions, 1744–2007......Page 285
11.4. Fraction of One Ton of Carbon Emitted in 1850 Remaining in the Atmosphere, 1850–2010......Page 286
11.5. Emissions Attributable to the North and the South, by IPCC Scenario, 1900–2010......Page 290
11.7. Cumulative Atmospheric CO2 Emissions Attributable to the North and the South, 1965–2035......Page 297
11.9. Atmospheric CO2 Concentration Attributed to the South Alone (IPCC A1F1 Scenario), 1980–2100......Page 298
11.11. Area of Arctic Ocean with At Least 15 Percent Sea Ice, 1979–2000 Average and September 2007......Page 300
11.12. Projected Percentage of Population Displaced by a 3-Meter Sea-Level Rise in Coastal Developing Countries......Page 301
11.13. Flood-Damage Risk Index in Developing Countries, 1960–2000......Page 302
11.14. Area in Nevada Required to Power the Entire United States with Solar Energy......Page 303
13.2. Share of Population At Least 60 Years Old, by UN Fertility Assumption, 2000–50......Page 335
13.2. Age Structure in Developed and Developing Countries’ Populations, 1950–2050......Page 336
13.5. Share of Population Aged 60+, by Region, 1950–2050......Page 337
13.7. Population in Developed Countries, by Five-Year Age Group, 1950–2050......Page 338
13.3. Ten Countries with the Largest Share of Elderly in the Population in 2050 or the Largest Increase in Share of Elderly Population from 2000 to 2050......Page 339
13.9. Male-Female Ratio in Developed and Developing Countries, by Age, 2005 and 2050......Page 340
13.10. Share of Population in Developing Countries, by Age Group, 1950–2050......Page 341
13.12. Share of Population in Developing Countries, by Five-Year Age Group, 1950–2050......Page 342
13.13. Ratio of Working-Age to Non-Working-Age Population in Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa, 1950–2050......Page 344
13.15. Labor Force Participation Rate, 2000 and 2040......Page 348
13.4. Global Labor Force, 1960, 2000, and 2004......Page 349
13.17. Actual and Counterfactual Annual Growth Rates of Income per Capita, 1960–2000......Page 350
7.1. Impact of Undervaluation on Industrial Activity: Panel of Five-Year Subperiods, 1960–2004......Page 167
7.2. Exports and Industrial Output as Determinants of Growth in GDP per Capita: Panel of Five-Year Subperiods, 1960–2004......Page 171
7.3. Trade Surpluses and Industrial Output as Determinants of Growth in GDP per Capita: Panel of Five-Year Subperiods, 1960–2004......Page 174
8.1. Access to Utilities Services, by Sector and Country Income Level......Page 188
8.2. Investment and Maintenance Expenditure Needs as a Percentage of GDP, by Country Income Level, Average 2005–15......Page 198
8.3. Different Approaches to Estimating Expenditure Needs in Infrastructure: The Example of Mexico......Page 199
8.4. Access to Infrastructure Services by Richest and Poorest 20 Percent of the Population, by Sector and Country Income Level......Page 205
8.5. Percentage of Countries with Significant Large-Scale Private Investment in Infrastructure, by Sector and Country Income Level, 2004......Page 209
8.6. Percentage of Countries without Significant Large-Scale Private Investment in Infrastructure, by Sector and Country Income Level, 2004......Page 215
8.7. Percentage of Countries with Independent Regulatory Agencies, by Sector and Country Income Level, 2004......Page 217
9.1. Manufactured Exports from Developing Countries, 1962–2004......Page 235
9.2. Exports of Manufactures, 1980 and 2004......Page 240
9.3. Top 20 Developing Countries Ranked by Absolute Size of Manufactured Exports in 2004......Page 244
9.4. Exports of the East Asian G-4 to China, 1980 and 2003......Page 245
9.5. Principal Manufactured Imports by Industrial Countries from Developing Countries, 1995......Page 247
9.6. Ratio of Imports from Developing Countries to Apparent Consumption in 1995 and Change from 1981......Page 249
9.7. Principal Manufactured Imports by Industrial Countries from Developing Countries, 2003......Page 252
9.8. Ratio of Imports from Developing Countries to Apparent Consumption in 2003 and Change from 1995......Page 254
10.1. Correlation between Growth in Real Value Added and the Interaction between Financial Dependence and Fiscal Policy Cyclicality: Total Fiscal Balance......Page 273
10.2. Correlation between Growth in Real Value Added and the Interaction between Asset Tangibility and Fiscal Policy Cyclicality: Total Fiscal Balance......Page 274
10.3. Correlation between Growth in Real Value Added and the Interaction between Financial Dependence and Fiscal Policy Cyclicality: Primary Fiscal Balance......Page 275
10.4. Correlation between Growth in Real Value Added and the Interaction between Asset Tangibility and Fiscal Policy Cyclicality: Primary Fiscal Balance......Page 276
11.1. Cumulative Atmospheric CO2 from the South and the North, 1850–2000......Page 284
11.2. Global Surface Warming in Six IPCC Nonmitigation Scenarios......Page 289
11.3. Estimated Benefits and Costs of Mitigation Relative to No Policies to Slow or Reverse Global Warming......Page 293
13.1. UN Forecast of 2050 Elderly Population, 1994–2006......Page 334
13.5. LFTP Ratios in 2000 (Actual) and 2040 (Predicted), with and without Female Labor Supply Response......Page 352
13.6. LFTP Ratios in OECD Countries in 2000 (Actual) and 2040 (Predicted), with and without Female Labor Supply Response......Page 353