Global Warming: The Complete Briefing

Contents
Preface
1 Global warming and climate change
	Is the climate changing?
	The last 40 years
	What is global warming?
	Adaptation and mitigation
	International cooperation in climate science
	Uncertainty and response
	Questions
	Further reading and reference
2 The greenhouse effect
	How the Earth keeps warm
	The greenhouse effect
	Pioneers of the science of the greenhouse effect
	Mars and Venus
	The ‘runaway’ greenhouse effect
	The enhanced greenhouse effect
	Summary
	Questions
	Further reading and reference
3 The greenhouse gases
	Which are the most important greenhouse gases?
	Radiative forcing
	Carbon dioxide and the carbon cycle
	The biological pump in the oceans
	What we can learn from carbon isotopes
	Future emissions of carbon dioxide
	Feedbacks in the biosphere
	Other greenhouse gases
	Gases with an indirect greenhouse effect
	Particles in the atmosphere
	Global warming potentials
	Estimates of radiative forcing
	Summary
	Questions
	Further reading and reference
4 Climates of the past
	The last hundred years
	Upper atmospheric temperature observed by satellites
	Warming of the ocean
	Changes in sea level
	The last thousand years
	The past million years
	Palaeoclimate reconstruction from isotope data
	How stable has past climate been?
	Summary
	Questions
	Further reading and reference
5 Modelling the climate
	Modelling the weather
	Setting up a numerical atmospheric model
	Data to initialise the model
	Seasonal forecasting
	Weather forecasting and chaos
	A simple model of the El Niño
	The climate system
	Forecasting for the African Sahel region
	Feedbacks in the climate system
	Cloud radiative forcing
	Models for climate prediction
	Climate feedback comparisons
	Validation of the model
	The ocean’s deep circulation
	Comparison with observations
	Modelling of tracers in the ocean
	Is the climate chaotic?
	Regional climate modelling
	The future of climate modelling
	Summary
	Questions
	Further reading and reference
6 Climate change for the twenty-first century and beyond
	Emission scenarios
	Representative Concentration Pathways
	Model projections
	Projections of global average temperature
	Simple climate models
	Equivalent carbon dioxide (CO2e)
	Regional patterns of climate change
	Changes in climate extremes
	Regional climate models
	Longer-term climate change
	Atlantic Meridonal Overturning Circulation
	Other factors that might influence climate change
	Does the Sun’s output change?
	Summary
	Questions
	Further reading and reference
7 The impacts of climate change
	A complex network of changes
	Sensitivity, adaptive capacity and vulnerability: some definitions
	How much will sea level rise?
	Thermal expansion of the oceans
	Impacts in coastal areas
	Increasing human use of fresh water resources
	The impact of climate change on fresh water resources
	Desertification
	Impact on agriculture and food supply
	The carbon dioxide ‘fertilisation’ effect
	The impact on ecosystems
	Modelling the impact of climate change on world food supply
	Forest–climate interactions and feedbacks
	The impact on human health
	Heatwaves in Europe and India, 2003
	Adaptation to climate change
	Impacts on Africa
	Costing the impacts of climate change
	The insurance industry and climate change
	Summary
	Questions
	Further reading and reference
8 Why should we be concerned?
	Earth in the balance
	Exploitation
	‘Back to nature’
	The technical fix
	The unity of the Earth
	Daisyworld and life on the early Earth
	Environmental values
	Stewards of the Earth
	Equity – intergenerational and international
	The will to act
	Summary
	Questions
	Further reading and reference
9 Weighing the uncertainty
	The scientific uncertainty
	The reasons for scientific uncertainty
	The IPCC Assessments
	Narrowing the uncertainty
	Space observations of the climate system
	Sustainable development
	Sustainable development: how is it defined?
	The Precautionary Principle
	Principles for international action
	The Rio Declaration 1992
	Damage from climate change and its cost
	Integrated Assessment and Evaluation
	Why not wait and see?
	Summary
	Questions
	Further reading and reference
10 A strategy for action to avoid dangerous climate change
	The Climate Convention
	Extracts from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
	Stabilisation of emissions
	The Montreal Protocol
	The Kyoto Protocol
	The Kyoto mechanisms
	Carbon trading
	Forests
	The world’s forests and deforestation
	Reduction in sources of greenhouse gases other than carbon dioxide
	The choice of target level
	Some recent reports on the climate’s future from world bodies
	Stabilisation of carbon dioxide concentrations
	Realising the Climate Convention Objective
	Summary
	Questions
	Further reading and reference
11 Energy and transport for the future
	World energy demand and supply
	Future energy projections
	Future energy scenarios to 2050
	Energy intensity and carbon intensity
	Projections for energy investment
	A long-term energy strategy
	Buildings: energy conservation and efficiency
	Where are we heading? Components of energy strategy
	Thermodynamic efficiencies
	Efficiency of appliances
	Insulation of buildings
	Example of a ZED (Zero Emission Development)
	Energy and carbon dioxide savings in transport
	Technologies for reducing carbon dioxide emissions from motor vehicles
	Energy and carbon dioxide savings in industry
	Carbon-free electricity supply
	Hydropower
	Biomass energy
	Biomass projects in rural areas in the developing world
	Biofuels
	Wind energy
	Wind power on Fair Isle
	Energy from the Sun: solar heating
	Solar water heating
	Solar energy in building design
	Energy from the Sun: concentrating solar power
	Energy from the Sun: solar photovoltaics
	The photovoltaic solar cell
	Local energy provision in Bangladesh
	Other renewable energies
	The support and financing of carbon-free energy
	Policy instruments
	Technology for the longer term
	Fuel cell technology
	Power from nuclear fusion
	A zero carbon future
	Key findings from the IEA, Energy Technology Perspectives 2014
	Summary
	Questions
	Further reading and reference
12 The global village
	Global warming – global pollution
	Sustainability – also a global challenge
	Not the only global problem
	The challenge to all sections of community
	What the individual can do
	The goal of environmental stewardship
	Questions
	Further reading and reference
Acknowledgements for figures and photos
Glossary
Index