Global Value Chains in a Postcrisis World: A Development Perspective (World Bank Trade and Development Series)

CONTENTS......Page 7
Contributors......Page 15
Foreword......Page 17
Acknowledgments......Page 19
Abbreviations......Page 21
Part I INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW......Page 25
1 Global Value Chains in a Postcrisis World: Resilience, Consolidation, and Shifting End Markets......Page 27
Part II THE CRISIS AND TRENDS IN GLOBAL TRADE, DEMAND, AND PRODUCTION......Page 45
2 Trade, Crisis, and Recovery: Restructuring Global Value Chains......Page 47
3 Global Value Chains and the Crisis: Reshaping International Trade Elasticity?......Page 97
4 Global Value Chains, the Crisis, and the Shift of Markets from North to South......Page 149
Part III GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES POSTCRISIS: SECTORAL PERSPECTIVES......Page 179
5 The Global Apparel Value Chain, Trade, and the Crisis: Challenges and Opportunities for Developing Countries......Page 181
6 Effects of the 2008–09 Crisis on the Automotive Industry in Developing Countries: A Global Value Chain Perspective......Page 233
7 Global Value Chains in the Electronics Industry: Was the Crisis a Window of Opportunity for Developing Countries?......Page 269
8 What Happens When the Market Shifts to China? The Gabon Timber and Thai Cassava Value Chains......Page 327
9 The Offshore Services Value Chain: Developing Countries and the Crisis......Page 359
Index......Page 397
3.1 Trade Elasticities......Page 100
3.2 Offshoring, Outsourcing, and the Measure of Vertical Integration......Page 104
8.1 Thai Cassava Exports to China, 2002–08......Page 332
8.2 Standards Governing Access to EU and Other Markets in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development......Page 344
2.1 U.S. and EU 27 Goods and Services Imports......Page 48
2.2 Exports from Low- and Middle-Income Countries......Page 51
2.3 Goods Exports from Low- and Middle-Income Countries by Product Category, 1970–2008......Page 52
2.4 U.S. Goods and Services Imports Growth, August 2008–December 2009......Page 56
2.5 U.S. Income Elasticities and Incremental Import–GDP Ratios, First Quarter 1970 to Third Quarter 2008......Page 58
2.6 Quarterly U.S. Goods Import Growth Rates during the Past Three Crises: 1990, 2001, and 2007......Page 64
2.7 EU 27 Goods Imports by Product Category, Ranked by August 2009 Growth......Page 67
2.8 U.S. and EU 27 Goods Imports of Top-Five Importers......Page 68
2.9 Goods Exports of Low- and Middle-Income Countries, 2009......Page 70
2.10 Herfindahl-Hirschman Index by Standard International Trade Classification, 1970–71 to 2007–08......Page 73
2.11 Vertical Consolidation of Global Value Chains......Page 76
2.12 Horizontal Consolidation of Global Value Chains......Page 77
2.13 Herfindahl-Hirschman Index by Broad Economic Category, Ranked by 2007–08 Growth Rate......Page 79
2.14 Export Growth and Herfindahl-Hirschman Index Growth by Broad Economic Category, 2007–08......Page 80
2.15 South-South Trade by Broad Economic Product Category, 1970–2009......Page 84
2A.1 World Exports by Region, 1970–2007......Page 86
2C.1 U.S. Goods Imports by Product Category, Ranked by Fourth-Quarter 2009 Growth......Page 88
2D.1 U.S. Services Imports by Service Category, Ranked by Fourth-Quarter 2009 Growth......Page 89
3.1 World Merchandise Exports and GDP, 1960–2009......Page 99
3.2 Worldwide GDP Elasticity of Imports, 10-Year Rolling Window, 1980–2009......Page 101
3.3 Asia and the United States—Export Orientation and Imports of Intermediate Goods: 1990, 1995, 2000, and 2008......Page 113
3.4 Change in World Production and GDP Response, 1980–2009......Page 118
3.5 GDP Elasticity of Imports: Clusters Based on Elasticity Patterns, 1989–2009......Page 122
3.6 GDP Elasticity of Imports, 10-Year Rolling Window: Hypothesis of Clusters Based on Export Specialization, 1980–2009......Page 123
3.7 GDP Elasticity of Imports: Hypothesis of Clusters Based on Regions, 1989–2009......Page 125
3.8 Impulse Response Function: Impact of an Exogenous Decrease in GDP on Trade in 24 OECD Countries......Page 132
3A.1 GDP Elasticity of Imports: Export Specialization (Main Product)......Page 140
4.9 Percentage Share of Total Investment in Fixed Assets in Urban Areas, by Type of Construction in China, 1995–2007......Page 165
4.2 Disposable Income Brackets of Households in China, India, Russian Federation, and Brazil, 2002–07......Page 167
4.3 Per Capita Consumption of Base Metals, 1960–2005......Page 168
5.1 Types of Lead Firms in the Global Apparel Value Chain......Page 201
5A.1 Shifts in Regional Structure of U.S. Apparel Imports, 1996–2008......Page 227
5A.2 Shifts in Regional Structure: EU 15 Apparel Imports, 1996–2008......Page 228
5A.3 Industrial Upgrading by Asian Economies in the Apparel Value Chain......Page 229
6.1 Supplier Defect Rates for New-Generation Lead Firms......Page 259
7.1 World Imports of Intermediate, Capital, and Consumption Goods, 1962–2006......Page 276
7.2 Position of the Guadalajara Electronics Cluster in Electronics GVCs......Page 294
7.3 Guadalajara “High-Tech” Employment and Exports, 1996–2009......Page 295
7.4 Taiwan, China’s Production of Desktop and Notebook PCs, 1986–2006......Page 301
7.5 Value Capture in Notebook PC GVC in Three Competitors......Page 303
8.1 Thailand’s Share in World Cassava Exports, 1961–2007......Page 328
8.2 Domestic Dried Cassava and Cassava Starch Value Chains in Thailand......Page 329
8.3 Thai Dried Cassava Exports to Main Destinations, 1999–2008......Page 334
8.5 Composition of Thai Cassava Starch Exports to China, 2001–06......Page 335
8.6 Domestic Timber GVC in Gabon......Page 340
8.7 Production Volumes of Selected Wood Products in Gabon, 1990–2007......Page 341
8.8 Gabon’s Exports of Logs and Processed Wood Products to France, 1997–2006......Page 342
8.3 China’s Growing Share of Global Exports in Timber-Processing Industries......Page 345
8.10 EU and Chinese Buyers’ Requirements: Wood Logs......Page 346
8.11 EU and Chinese Buyers’ Requirements: International Regulations and Standards......Page 347
8.4 Share of Global Tropical Log Importers for Selected Countries: 1990, 1997, and 2007......Page 348
8.6 Gabon Log Output Channeled into a Single Chain, at Gabon Wood Utilization Rates......Page 351
9.1 Business Models in Outsourcing and Offshore Services......Page 361
9.2 The Offshore Services Global Value Chain......Page 363
9.3 Global Demand for Offshore Services, by Activity, 2005–10......Page 368
9.4 Actual and Potential Adoption of Offshore Practices......Page 373
9.5 How Firms Respond to the Economic Crisis......Page 376
9.6 Changes in Key Drivers of Offshoring Decisions, November 2008......Page 377
9.7 India’s Offshore Services Industry Growth Rate, 2006–09......Page 390
7.1 Celestica’s Global Operating Footprint, 2001......Page 291
9.1 Global Supply and Demand for Offshore Services......Page 370
2.1 Goods and Services Offshoring Intensities in Selected Countries, 1991 versus 2006......Page 53
2.2 “Crisis” versus Long-Run Income Elasticities of U.S. Import Demand......Page 60
2.3 U.S. Sectoral Import Shares by Top-10 Importers, January–September 2008 versus January–September 2009......Page 81
2B.1 Classification of Sectors by Broad Economic Category......Page 87
2E.1 U.S. Import Elasticities, 1999–2008......Page 91
3.1 Quarterly Growth of World Manufactures Exports by Product, First Quarter 2008 to Fourth Quarter 2009......Page 103
3.2 Asia and the United States: Annual Growth of Intermediate Inputs and Exports, 1990–2008......Page 109
3.3 Asia and the United States: Changes in Exports and Imported Inputs Elasticity, 1990–2008......Page 111
3.4 Share of Value-Added and Imported Inputs, 1990–2008......Page 114
3.5 Asia and the United States: Imported Inputs Coefficients, 2008......Page 117
3.6 Estimation of the Error Correction Model and Long-Run Trade Elasticity for 24 OECD Countries......Page 128
3.7 Estimation of the Error Correction Model at the Country Level......Page 130
3A.1 Overview of Clusters Ordered, by Country......Page 136
3A.2 Overview of Countries in Each Cluster......Page 138
3A.3 Predicted Change in Imports and Observed Values......Page 142
4.1 Drivers of Standards over Process and Product, by Firms, Governments, and Civil Society......Page 152
4.2 Hierarchy of Upgrading Firm Capabilities......Page 153
4.3 Country Current Account Balance......Page 156
4.4 Savings and Household Consumption Expenditure......Page 157
4.5 Foreign Exchange Reserves, 2009......Page 158
4.6 Changes in Trade and Savings for Major Economies, 2008–09......Page 159
4.7 General Government Fiscal Balance......Page 160
4.8 Regional Share of Global Middle-Class Spending, 2009–30......Page 163
4.10 Elasticity of Energy Consumption and Metal Production in China, 1991–2005......Page 166
4.11 China’s Share of Global Consumption of Base Metals and Meat......Page 169
4.12 The Importance of Standards Driven by Firms, Governments, and Civil Society in Value Chains Feeding into China and India......Page 171
4.13 High- and Low-Income Commodity Importing Economies: Complementarity and Competition with Low-Income Commodity-Exporting Economies......Page 172
5.1 Changes in World’s Top-15 Apparel Importers: 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2007–08......Page 184
5.2 Changes in U.S. Top-15 Apparel Importers: 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2007–09......Page 187
5.3 Changes in EU 15 Top-15 Apparel Importers, 2000 and 2005–09......Page 188
5.4 Changes in Japan’s Top-Five Apparel Importers: 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2007–08......Page 190
5.5 Changes in World’s Top-15 Apparel Exporters: 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2007–08......Page 191
5.6 China’s Top-10 Apparel Export Markets: 1996, 2002, and 2008......Page 195
5.7 Summary of Country Capabilities with Examples......Page 197
5.8 Lead Firm Types and Brand Types with Regional Examples......Page 202
5A.1 Leading Apparel Exporters: Government Support and Trade Agreements......Page 214
5A.2 Leading Apparel Exporters: Strengths and Weaknesses/Threats......Page 218
5A.3 Apparel Country Exporter Capabilities......Page 220
5A.4 Leading Apparel Exporters: Export Value, Markets, and Dependence, 2008......Page 222
5A.5 Functional Upgrading Trajectories, Governance, and Local Skills......Page 223
5A.6 Mass Merchants: Private-Label Sourcing Strategies, 2008......Page 224
5A.7 Specialty Retailers: Sourcing Strategies, 2008......Page 225
5A.8 Brand Marketers and Manufacturers: Sourcing Strategies, 2008......Page 226
6.1 Passenger Vehicle Production Levels and Growth in Countries Producing 1 Million or More Units in 2008......Page 243
6.2 Top-10 Developing-Economy Exporters of Intermediate Parts for Passenger Vehicles and Motorcycles......Page 248
6.4 Impact of the Crisis on Quality Initiatives of Second-Tier Canadian Suppliers, 2009......Page 249
6.5 Sourcing by Original Equipment Manufacturers in China from Three Possible Sources......Page 253
6.6 Production, Sales, and Exports by Automakers with Assembly Plants in Mexico, 2004–07......Page 255
6.7 Market Share of Leading Car Producers in India and China in 2001......Page 257
7.1 Industries in Manufactured Intermediate Goods in 1988 and 2006 Ranked according to 2006 Total Trade......Page 272
7.2 Top-15 Intermediate-Goods Importers and Exporters in the Electronics Industry, 2006......Page 274
7.3 Average Annual Change in Imports and Exports: Final and Intermediate Goods in Three Industries in the United States, 1997–2009......Page 277
7.4 Main Electronics Markets, Products, and Lead Firms......Page 281
7.5 Top-Five Electronics Contract Manufacturers, Various Regions, 2009......Page 282
7.6 China’s Mobile Phone Handset Production, Export, and Consumption, 1998 and 2005......Page 306
7A.1 Solectron’s Operations, 2001......Page 318
8.2 Factor Utilization and Number of Establishments If All Cassava Produced as Chips, Pellets, or Starches......Page 336
8.5 Summary of Preferences and Buyer Standards of Chinese and EU Buyers of Gabon Timber Products......Page 350
9.1 Global Offshore Services–Market Size Estimates, 2005–10......Page 366
9.2 Top-20 Offshore Services Providers......Page 371
9.3 Offshore Services Revenues by Provider, July 2007 to September 2009......Page 378
9.4 Select Offshore Services Provider Hiring and Layoff Actions during the Economic Crisis, Late 2008 to Early 2010......Page 380
9.5 Offshore Services Industry Indicators in the Philippines, 2004–09......Page 384
9.6 Offshore Services Industry Indicators in India, 2004–09......Page 385
9.7 India’s Revenues from the Offshore Services Industry, FY2005–FY2009......Page 389