Global Outlook for Ice and Snow

Front Cover......Page 1
Title Page......Page 3
Copyright......Page 4
Table of Contents......Page 5
Foreword......Page 6
Highlights......Page 7
Why are Ice and Snow Changing?......Page 9
Snow......Page 10
Ice in the Sea......Page 11
Ice on the Land......Page 12
Ice on the Land......Page 13
Ice and Sea-level Change......Page 14
Frozen Ground......Page 15
River and Lake Ice......Page 16
Policy and Perspectives......Page 17
Why are Ice and Snow Important to Us?......Page 19
Changes in the polar regions are important to the rest of the world......Page 21
Changes from melting ice and snow affect people’s homes and livelihoods worldwide......Page 23
The Cryosphere......Page 27
References......Page 28
Why are Ice and Snow Changing?......Page 29
Forces that drive the climate system......Page 30
Learning from the past......Page 32
Arctic......Page 34
Feedbacks and interactions......Page 36
References......Page 38
Snow......Page 39
Introduction to snow......Page 40
Trends and outlook for snow......Page 41
Regional trends in snow cover......Page 43
Outlook for snow cover......Page 44
Local observations of snow-cover changes......Page 45
Snow as an ecological factor......Page 46
Migratory sandpipers and snow on the Arctic tundra......Page 49
Impacts of projected snow-cover changes on ecosystems......Page 50
The snow-loving deer of the Arctic......Page 52
Impacts on water resources......Page 53
Impacts on agriculture – crops and animal husbandry......Page 54
Impacts on recreational sector......Page 55
Alpine ski resorts......Page 56
Impacts on environmental hazards......Page 57
References......Page 58
Ice in the Sea......Page 63
Introduction to sea ice......Page 64
Northern Hemisphere trends......Page 68
Southern Hemisphere trends......Page 70
Sea-ice retreat: potential for tipping points and enhanced rates of change......Page 72
Global significance of sea-ice changes......Page 74
Overview......Page 75
Sea ice as a dynamic, complex environment......Page 76
Sea-ice research: International Polar Year and looking to the future......Page 77
Marine biodiversity associated with sea ice and implications for food webs......Page 79
Sea ice and food webs: complex linkages among ice, oceans and many forms of life......Page 80
Ice fauna – the secondary producers......Page 81
Mammals and birds dependent on sea ice......Page 82
Seals......Page 83
Polar Bears......Page 84
Seabirds......Page 86
Impacts of sea-ice changes on culture and livelihoods of Arctic Indigenous Peoples......Page 87
Arctic and Antarctic fisheries......Page 89
Arctic oil and gas......Page 90
The Northern Sea Route......Page 91
Ice Sheets......Page 99
Introduction to the ice sheets......Page 100
Antarctica......Page 102
Recent mass balance analyses......Page 103
How to tell if an ice sheet is growing or shrinking......Page 104
Antarctica (see Figure 6A.3)......Page 105
Outlook for the ice sheets......Page 107
References......Page 112
Glaciers and Ice Caps......Page 115
Summary......Page 116
Introduction to glaciers and ice caps......Page 117
Glacier responses to climatic changes......Page 118
The Late Glacial and Holocene (the period since about 21 000 years ago)......Page 119
Since the end of the Little Ice Age......Page 120
Worldwide glacier monitoring......Page 121
Outlook for glaciers......Page 122
Glaciers and natural hazards......Page 124
Glacier lake outburst floods and glacier surges in Central Asia......Page 125
The 2002 Caucasus ice-rock avalanche and its implications......Page 126
Glaciers, landscapes and the water cycle......Page 127
The water towers of Asia......Page 130
Overview......Page 132
North America......Page 134
Norway......Page 135
European Alps......Page 136
Russia......Page 137
Central Asian Tien Shan and Pamirs......Page 138
Himalayas......Page 139
South America......Page 140
Glacier changes and water availability in the tropical Andes......Page 141
Tropical glaciers......Page 142
African Mountains......Page 144
New Zealand......Page 145
References......Page 146
Ice and Sea-level Change......Page 153
Introduction to sea level issues......Page 154
Ice-age cycles and sea level......Page 156
The last few centuries......Page 157
Projections of 21st century sea-level rise......Page 158
Outlook for sea-level change......Page 160
Extreme events......Page 163
Overview of sea-level rise impacts and adaptation......Page 164
Maintaining and restoring native coastal vegetation in response to sea-level rise......Page 165
Vulnerable sectors, systems and localities......Page 167
Vulnerability of coral reefs......Page 168
Vulnerability of water resources......Page 169
The magnitude of impacts from sea-level rise......Page 170
Vulnerability of human settlements and activities......Page 172
Vulnerability of megacities: case study of New York City......Page 174
Need for adaptation......Page 175
Need for mitigation......Page 176
References......Page 177
Frozen Ground......Page 181
Introduction to permafrost......Page 182
Trends and outlook for high latitude (Arctic) permafrost......Page 184
Outlook......Page 186
Methane emissions from thermokarst lakes......Page 188
Impacts on ecosystems......Page 189
Impacts on infrastructure......Page 190
Europe......Page 192
Central Asia......Page 193
Mountain permafrost......Page 194
China......Page 195
South America......Page 196
References......Page 197
River and Lake Ice......Page 201
Trends and outlook......Page 202
Spring temperatures and ice break up......Page 204
River flows, break up and flooding......Page 205
River temperature gradients and floods......Page 206
Impacts on human economies and wellbeing......Page 207
Impacts on biological productivity......Page 208
Alpine lakes, snow cover and fish production......Page 209
Maintaining delta pond ecosystems......Page 210
References......Page 212
Policy and Perspectives......Page 215
Wrap up of key messages......Page 216
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change......Page 218
Options to mitigate climate change......Page 219
Arctic: jurisdiction, oil, and minerals......Page 220
Antarctic: tourism expansion......Page 221
Himalayas Hindu Kush region: water supply and flood risk......Page 222
Local policy issues in the Arctic......Page 223
All things are connected.........Page 224
Living with snow and ice changes......Page 225
Vanishing beneath the waves......Page 226
Himalayan meltdown......Page 227
References......Page 228
Editorial and Production Team and Authors......Page 229
Steering Committee and Reviewers......Page 234
Acknowledgements......Page 235
Back Cover......Page 238