Global material resources outlook to 2060 : economic drivers and environmental consequences.

Foreword
Acknowledgements
Abbreviations and acronyms
Executive summary
	What are the key projected trends for materials use?
	What are the environmental consequences?
	What are the policy implications?
Chapter 1. An overview of global material resource use to 2060
	1.1. Global economic growth relies on an increased use of material resources
	1.2. Materials use is set to keep growing without new policies
	1.3. How is uncertainty accounted for?
	1.4. The projections imply large environmental and sustainable development challenges
		1.4.1. The links between economic activity, materials use and the Sustainable Development Goals are complex
	1.5. Improving materials efficiency will require better policies
	1.6. How is the report structured?
	Notes
	References
		Part I.    The economic drivers  of materials use
Part I. The economic drivers of materials use
	Chapter 2. Modelling future materials use and its economic drivers
		2.1. Introduction
			2.1.1. What is the value added of this report?
		2.2. How is future materials use modelled?
			2.2.1. How are material flows integrated into the modelling?
				Primary material extraction is linked to demand
				How are recycling and secondary material processing included?
				How is substitution between primary and secondary materials modelled?
			2.2.2. The model accounts for decoupling of materials use from economic growth
			2.2.3. Material reserves, stocks and supply constraints are not easily integrated
		2.3. What is the baseline scenario approach?
		Notes
		References
			Annex 2.A. The modelling framework
		2.A.1 The modelling approach to produce economic and materials projections
		2.A.2 The ENV-Growth model
		2.A.3 The ENV-Linkages model
	Chapter 3. Projecting the economic baseline scenario
		3.1. Population and economic growth will see major regional shifts
		3.2. The services sector will drive demand growth
			3.2.1. Rising incomes mean new consumption patterns
			3.2.2. The “servitisation” of manufacturing is a significant trend
		3.3. Production processes will rely more on new technologies and services
		3.4. Several areas of uncertainty affect the socioeconomic projections
		Notes
		References
			Annex 3.A. Detailed results and supplementary materials
		3.A.1 Detailed total population projections and the ageing process
		3.A.2 Detailed GDP growth and assumptions about drivers of the projected GDP per capita
			Projections of employment rates
			Projected trends in GDP per worker
	Chapter 4. Projections of the economic drivers of materials use
		4.1. Economic development and construction materials are closely linked
		4.2. The global rise of services helps reduce materials use
		4.3. There is a gradual transition away from primary material inputs
		4.4. Demand for materials declines as economies mature
			4.4.1. Economic development may lead to the saturation of materials use
			4.4.2. The maturing of China’s economy will affect demand for construction materials
		Notes
		References
			Annex 4.A. Detailed results and supplementary materials
			Part II.    Materials use to 2060
Part II. Materials use to 2060
	Chapter 5. Projections of primary materials use
		5.1. Development levels affect materials extraction rates
		5.2. Materials extraction is projected to almost double by 2060
		5.3. Materials intensity is projected to decline
		5.4. Materials use per capita is projected to increase in most countries
		5.5. Socioeconomic scenarios are a source of uncertainty
		Notes
		References
			Annex 5.A. Detailed results and supplementary materials for Chapter 5
	Chapter 6. Projections of recycling and secondary materials
		6.1. Secondary materials are only a modest part of total materials use
		6.2. Recycling is projected to triple
		6.3. Secondary metal production is projected to grow as fast as primary metal production
		6.4. Uncertainty surrounds the recycling and secondary materials projections
		Notes
		References
			Annex 6.A. Detailed results and supplementary materials
	Chapter 7. Case studies on demand and supply risks for specific materials:  copper, iron and steel and critical materials
		7.1. Detailed case studies bring global patterns into sharper focus
		7.2. The copper case highlights the close links between primary and secondary material flows
		7.3. The case of iron and steel reveals very large recycling potential
		7.4. The case of critical materials in the OECD shows the key role of supply risks
		Notes
		References
			Part III.    The environmental consequences of materials use
Part III.The environmental consequences of materials use
	Chapter 8. Projections of the environmental consequences of  materials use
		8.1. Materials use has many environmental consequences
		8.2. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions is strongly linked to materials use policies
		8.3. The increase in materials use will exacerbate environmental impacts
			8.3.1. The environmental impacts of extraction and processing materials are diverse
			8.3.1. The production of primary materials is more polluting than that of secondary materials
			8.3.2. The per kg environmental impacts evolve over time
			8.3.3. The environmental consequences of metals are wide-ranging
			8.3.4. The large-scale use of construction materials brings significant environmental consequences
			8.3.5. Materials extraction and production forms a significant share of total environmental impacts
		Notes
		References
			Annex 8.A. Detailed results and supplementary materials
		8.A.1. Comparing the GHG projections to the literature
		8.A.2. Climate damages
		8.A.3. Detailed explanations of the analysis of environmental impacts
			What is Life Cycle Assessment?
			Description of the life-cycle analysis impact categories and indicators
		8.A.4. Detailed results for projected environmental impacts
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